The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

2018 RSA Chase

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham Archive Cheltenham 2018 2018 RSA Chase

Viewing 17 posts - 222 through 238 (of 352 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1345261
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    This horse has only ever won on soft and heavy ground, most likely won’t get that here but even if he did he still wouldn’t win this.

    OMG,
    These stats can sometimes point a punter in the right direction, but there is a necessity to at least look the horse’s form up. :whistle:
    Yet again! Naive in the extreme, Potatoe – taking a stat and jumping to silly conclusions.
    When a horse improves enormously to put up a career best hurdles performance in finishing second in the Albert Bartlett on GOOD… You think he needs soft or heavy just because he hasn’t won on anything else. LOL

    If a horse won ten Sellers on Soft or Heavy and then finished second in the Derby on Firm, would you then think he needs Soft or Heavy to win? :rose:

    Value Is Everything
    #1345276
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Missed my point entirely steve, but thats to be expected.

    There’s no need for that attitude.

    I am just putting my opinions forward.

    I stand by my comments, which others agree with. We are talking about ONE race here and not which horse will be best at next year’s festival.

    Don’t like my input? Don’t read it.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1345278
    Avatar photocharlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 890

    Well said Steve. I thought you made sound points and people need to accept that we are allowed to interpret ratings and progression differently, without responding with an attitude.

    #1345279
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3637

    Why would you get offended by that line steve? You to charlie, Ive said many a time on this forum i dont know much, i was referring to how i put things across, stop playing the victim, you repeatedly do this when someone makes a point against. Stop getting offended there was no malice in anything i said.

    “It’s all very well saying one thing but the figures don’t back up your statement. I think it’s important to check figures if you are going to use them to back an opinion.”

    Was your response to me and your telling me theres no need for attitude lol the figures are for everyone to interpret there own way, mines sais the last 7 years generally an improving horse with 2-5 chase starts wins, yours sais battle hardened static 150 ish horses win which is fine

    I never ridiculed you for your opinion, atall. absolutely do not get either of your posts above this, stop being so easily offended.

    #1345283
    Avatar photocharlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 890

    To say you expect someone to miss your point is designed to needle and has obvious connotations. It’s clearly not malice and nobody cares or is offended, people want a front row seat to all things RSA, not to people engaging in this type of thing. So on that note, back to the RSA – just watched the Boylesports preview and they were of the opinion that PP is not a grade 1 animal and Monalee is the real deal. Shaping up to be a cracking race this, although I am a little disappointed Shattered Love goes JLT and not here, thought she had a decent chance. My hope that Monalee goes JLT and not here is waning by the day!

    #1345286
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    I agree, ham.
    Number of races a horse has had is a big indication of how much improvement is left.
    So on those grounds Black Corton is far less likely to improve than Presenting Percy and Monalee.

    One thing BC’s supporters may be clinging to is his “will to win” – or rather a will to get to or remain in front. Seemingly finding more whenever asked. So in a race where he’s likely to be asked for even more than previously, may be (and only may be) he’ll find even more ability than previously? :unsure: Attitude reminds me of 1993 winner Young Hustler.

    However, although it pains me to say it, the Irish probably have this race between them.

    Value Is Everything
    #1345289
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3637

    Yeah spot on ginge, he could do just that, wouldnt put anyone off the horse i think hes been incredible, just not for me.

    #1345295
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Ham, you said Blaklion was a steady improver coming into the RSA, his last three runs were on OR’s of 149, 150 and 150. That’s just not an indicator of steady improvement, is it?

    You can’t say on one hand that 149, 150 and 150 is improvement but 155, 155, 155 isn’t.

    Had you actually checked the figures before making the statement? If so, it seems very odd to have reached the conclusion you did. That is the point I am making.

    I have no problem with people not fancying any horse, it’s long odds on that Black Corton won’t win it.

    It’s sensible enough to assume a horse with fewer runs has more scope for improvement but I thought Black Corton put in a potentially underrated performance last time. I may well be wrong but I could see him being capable of 160 and that might be enough. There is more to winning an RSA than Rating and potential. We would all be richer if it were not so.

    As for the victim, you have had a few sly digs in the past, even taking the NFL into it at one time. If I were to start doing that to you and then just passed it off as a joke, would you be so sangfroid about it?

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1345298
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 828

    I find certain people on this thread to be coming across very poorly.

    It seems to be perceived by some here that if you don’t fancy Monalee for this race then you are not worthy of posting here.

    A lesson will be learnt on the day for many I think.

    #1345300
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 828

    Ginger Tipster you said this:

    “Be amazed if Elegant Escape goes for this, sound jumping and staying/one paced qualities make him an ideal NH Chase candidate.”

    Ham you have already had a loser on this race in Willoughby Court who won’t run. But now Monalee is the new incredible horse who can’t be ebeaten.

    So Ginger my Elegant Escape has already amazed you once and will amaze you once again next Wednesday en route to the 2019 gold cup.

    Ham may I remind you that I am as yet to lose on this race. You already have with Willoughby Court. Best of luck with your second selection. The now apparently unbeatable Monalee.

    #1345305
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 828

    DOes anybody think there is any significance that paddy power are markedly shorter than all other bookmakers on Al Boum Photo for the JLT?

    I was of the opinion that Al Boum Photo would be running in the RSA but looking at PP pricing they seem to think he goes JLT.

    #1345306
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3637

    Who has gave that impression potato lol, my point was against all the british and for all the irish, is their some issue with giving that opinion, i used monalee as an example but could have used PP or IO, never once shut anyone off for backing anything other than monalee… i stated i may be wrong atleast once…

    And i have indeed lost a small outlay indeed on WC, potato, what relevance is that to anything that my initial fancy went elsewhere?, luckily potato i know how to control my stakes lol.

    And steve, 5 starts is not the same as 10 starts, yes not improving massively with every run, but in hindsight his run in wetherby before the rsa on heavy, was underplayed, native river who he beat by 18 lengths was already rated 153, so why he remained on 150 was always a mystery, im sure you can answer that…I cant personally see ms parfois or mount mews being as good as native river or definitely red anytime soon.

    None of that is really relevant so its a bit pointless of me bringing it up.

    My point is down to what ginger said just above, 155 after 2 1/2 starts as opposed to 155 after 7 and staying there until 10 starts, youd be disappointed if 155 was any horses peak after 2 1/2 starts. But after 10 starts you start thinking there relatively peaked…. i may be violently wrong. You may be correct

    And steve come on, your as guilty as anyone to throwing a one liner in at the end of a post, lighten up, this is not real life.

    #1345328
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3637

    And potato, wylie confirmed yesterday that invitation only is going jlt, nothing on al boum photo although they have said they will split them up, if that helps you

    #1345331
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    I find certain people on this thread to be coming across very poorly.

    It seems to be perceived by some here that if you don’t fancy Monalee for this race then you are not worthy of posting here.

    A lesson will be learnt on the day for many I think.

    You’ve put up some extremely strong opinions about both Elegant Escape and Monalee yourself, Potatoe. Surely can’t complain if some people come back to you and strongly disagree?

    It’s not that I am a massive fan of Monalee – don’t know if I am even going to back him yet. Value is everything. All am saying is imo your reading of jumping ability and going requirements leave a lot to be desired; just five minutes looking through his form (and not just a fixation on the numbers and letters after his name) would tell you as much. :rose:

    If you say Monalee has three legs and Elegant Escape is the reincarnation of Pegaseus – and then Monalee happens to disappoint and Elegant Escape wins… Won’t prove Monalee has three legs and neither does it prove Elegant Escape to be Pegasus.

    Value Is Everything
    #1345335
    Nausered
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 585

    Reading some of this, you could be mistaken for thinking that this maybe the first time some folk have ever encountered the interweb… :yahoo:

    Nivea, it’s great for sensitive souls :heart:

    #1345336
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Nivea is handy for a few things if we are playing at throwing in one liners then ;-)

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1345338
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    Ginger Tipster you said this:

    “Be amazed if Elegant Escape goes for this, sound jumping and staying/one paced qualities make him an ideal NH Chase candidate.”

    So Ginger my Elegant Escape has already amazed you once and will amaze you once again next Wednesday en route to the 2019 gold cup.

    Ham may I remind you that I am as yet to lose on this race. You already have with Willoughby Court. Best of luck with your second selection. The now apparently unbeatable Monalee.

    You’re right, I shouldn’t really have been “amazed” considering the trainer. There is no more optimistic than Colin Tizzard and he is very much old-school too. So RSA is a bigger pull than it would be for a younger trainer. May also be thinking back to what happened with Native River when amateur ridden in the NH Chase.

    You’ll remember I also said:

    “When the ground is very soft not only does a horse need to act on the going, the surface places a far greater emphasis on stamina. Strongly run RSA on heavy could be a similar stamina test to a good ground NH Chase”.

    So Elegant Escape being “one paced”, won’t be as much of a problem if it’s very soft. Under anything like normal ground conditions imo won’t have either the pace or ability to win an RSA and therefore represents poor value… But I could be wrong and good luck to you, Potatoe. :good:

    Oh and… ham isn’t the only good judge to have lost money on Willoughby. ;-)

    Value Is Everything
Viewing 17 posts - 222 through 238 (of 352 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.