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is lalor not a contender off 11st 1lb and 6yo??
Lalor fits the trends but didn’t make my shortlist. Why? Because he has one of the lowest adjusted RPRs in the race so needs to improve at least half a stone to have any chance of winning. May well do, either because this race was the plan and/or had wind op, however, harsh as it is to say, the trainer is unproven. All the best to her, it would be quite an achievement, but I had to be ruthless in reducing 24 to 4.
I don’t fancy Moon Racer at all. He has the WS now to indicate Wind Surgery but he has loads of question marks.
As has been said quite a bit recently, a wind op is no silver bullet and we have to consider how good Moon Racer was at his peak anyway. The handicapper had him on 148 at one time and he is down to 142 now but how solid is that 148?
The Racing Post, normally recognised as rating higher than OR on their figures, have Moon Racer’s best RPR at 140 and there was talk last season of the Ballyandy and Moon Racer form being overrated after Ballyandy won the Betfair Hurdle himself, off 135 before being thumped with a 12 lbs rise. For me,there is no reason to see Moon Racer as well handicapped off 142, especially bearing in mind his problems.
He was due to go to the Supreme Novices last year but connections felt that it may be his only opportunity to run in a Champion Hurdle, so they went for the big one instead, only to result in a debacle.
It’s a strange progression, Novice-Champion Hurdle-Novice-Handicap and this looks way more wide open than last year’s race, where Ballyandy was fav from a seven pound lower mark.
I am rather surprised to see Jenkins half the odds of Misterton here. 10/1 to 20/1 makes little sense to me. The two met in the Greatwood and Misterton was 15 lengths ahead of Jenkins. Yes, Jenkins has hit form but he now faces Misterton on 7 lbs worse terms for a 15 length defeat (Misterton a pound out of the handicap last time)
Wide open of course but even as someone who had Moon Racer ante post back in his pomp in the Cheltenham Bumper, I can’t see him here at all.
I would also be against Charli Parcs, who never built on a fairly stunning debut in this country. Irish Roe, Jenkins and Kalashnikov are the ones who look too short to me and I would see Silver Streak and Verdana, who come from the same race on their previous runs, as two closely tied younger horses who could have a say.
Good luck everybody.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I can’t get away from the obvious chances of Irish Roe and Kalashnikov but one that I don’t think has had much of a mention is Waterlord at 16/1.
He was off the track for pretty much 2 years before making his comeback in November, finishing a not far behind 6th of 7 in a listed race. He’s ran on Heavy ground 4 times already this season and won a couple of novice races very tidily before tiring near the end in a grade 2 at Haydock last time out.
I’d like to see him on a less brutal surface now as all his efforts as a 4 year old were on good, good to soft going and he had some handy form on the table.I’ll have those 3 each way 6 places. Good luck with selections, this could go to anyone.
William H Bonney for me.
Trainer has kept it fresh for this.
Arguably well handicapped.
33/1 is value.This is the old Schweppes Trophy, a cracking race and one that all tipsters like to nail. If we had any brains, we’d waste no time on it and look for a winner in a more sensible race.
Hit the nail on the head right there, would absolutely love to get this one in the bag!
Waterlord owned by Matt Taylor; would be good to see McCain have a high profile winner.
Minefield of a race so kept it simple and backed 2 horses ew that may be better than their ratings not too old and currently in the 130s.
Irish Roe and Lalor.Not really a big each-way man myself but Misterton 20/1 (six places) looks likely to be a sound enough investment.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Misterton at 22s
Irish Roe at 10s
High Bridge at 28sAnd I’m considering backing:
Verdana Blue at 16sGood luck everybody
If I had a ticket for Verdana Blue, I’d be close to ripping it up now with the state
of the going. Not a lot I can do now, but I’m no where near as confident as I was when
I stuck her on a couple of days ago. Not to say that she wont handle it, but it’s
unchartered territory and Nicky Henderson thinks it’s “a concern”.I agree with you Steve that there are questions to be answered by MOON RACER, but I
think he has a squeak if Pipe has him fit. He’s not the likeliest winner I grant you,
but I couldn’t resist topping up with the 40s that Bet365 went this morning. If he
comes home 5th I’ll be happy enough.Zalvados 25/1 EW
Charli Parcs 33/1 EWDecent mark for those. Hope the one will finish within the first six.
Well done, MOM, Aaronizneez and Mister Olney who seems to be having a fine season! Great tipping Charles, with Spiritofthegames running a fine race too.
Winner adds to the record of those no older than 6 here, data that’s beginning to look solid.
Well done to those who backed the winner!
Charli Parcs seemed to travel well before tiring in the ground, hope that hasn’t taken too much out of himFollowing the race Peter Atkinson reported that IRISH ROE (IRE), which was pulled up, was unsuited by the soft ground, which in his opinion was riding softer than the advertised going, and would prefer a faster surface. The Veterinary Officer reported that WATERLORD, which was pulled up, bled from the nose and MOON RACER (IRE), unplaced, lost its right fore shoe.
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing/stewards-reports/#!?pagenum=1&ondate=2018-02-10
Hope Waterlord is okay.
Misterton went out like a light and it looked mighty tough for most of them.
I had Kalashnikov as a 2m4f prospect and worried if he would be fast enough here but he revelled in the conditions and came away a worthy winner.
More disappointments than good runs there but it’s only a race for a few quid, a bookies benefit in the main.
At least Misterton beat Jenkins home. I thought the latter was very silly odds today and raced as if he would burn himself out and he surely did.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I agree with you Steve, it was pretty brutal out there and most didn’t cope. I kind
of knew my fate with Verbana Blue before the off, but I was quite impressed with how
well she travelled. Unfortunately when push came to shove there was nothing left and
after cruising behind the front runners she couldn’t pick up on it at the end. I’ll be
keeping a close check to see where she goes. She’s entered in the Champion Hurdle and
the Mares Hurdle, but I’m not sure a truly run 2m4f in the Mares Hurdle is what she needs,
and equally I don’t think she’s up to taking on Buveur D’Air in the Champion, but then again
who is. I’ll hold my ammunition meantime, but I think there’s a big race in her on better ground.Well done Mom, Aaronizneez and Charles, a very well deserved winner
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