The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Betfair Hurdle 2018

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Betfair Hurdle 2018

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 74 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1336782
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16004

    Biggest Handicap Hurdle of the year, and as usual, a cracking entry.

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/36/newbury/2018-02-10/691761

    As is often the case with this race, a lot of attention has went the way of the Nicky Hendersons runners, and he’s got plenty near the head of the market. He’s got no fewer than nine entered……

    Call Me Lord
    Charli Parcs
    Charming Zen
    Diessi Des Bieffes
    Jenkins
    Kayf Grace
    Lough Derg Spirit
    Verdana Blue
    William Henry

    A quick look at that lot will show you a case can be made for the lot of them, and I’m particularly interested in Call Me Lord, Kayf Grace, and Jenkins. Kayf is off only 140, while Call Me Lord is now off 152, after his very impressive win at the weekend, but I have the pair of them very close together, and don’t think either of them are finished for the season. They seem to have concerns about Lord going left handed, but I didn’t see too much to be worried about at Sandown. Both of them are high on the shortlist, while Jenkins appeals only at the prices. Has done nothing at all this season, but the temptation is still there to “bet to lay”, as off his lowly mark, there has to be a chance he’ll be subject to a similar gamble, as was seen in The Greatwood, and he’ll be coming back to the track where he first came to prominence. Charli Parcs has been near the head of the market for this for a while now, but with this being a “target” race of JP’s you have to pay heed to his other runners…….

    Bleu Et Rouge
    Campeador
    Defi Du Seuil
    Project Bluebook

    Bleu Et Rouge & Project Bluebook are both on my shortlist for The County, and a bit of work required here to win both. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Bluebook yet, and having not been messed about in The Greatwood, I think his run in The Galway Hurdle is the best one to judge him on.

    Bleu Et Rouge is a big winner waiting to happen, and I’m sure JP/WPM have one race in mind for him only. Whether or not it’s this, I don’t know, but he has to be considered. WPM has seven entered, and I think the other one who makes most appeal, is the continually underrated Lagostovegas. She’s a lovely type, and I think at least one of the Wylie runners will come here, with Merie Devie looking the most realistic at this stage. Sandsend is well regarded, but the owners have another pair within the Henderson battalions, so very risky.

    Defi Du Seuil needs no introduction, and is surely better than his Ascot run, and there’s plenty of his fans on here. It’s his stablemate Poppy Kay I really like from the yard though. Great attitude from her at the weekend, and I was hoping for 40’s, 50’s. No chance, and the books have her right around 20’s. She should have a decent future.

    I thought Campeador would be a Champion Hurdle horse this season, but he’s just been a shade disappointing, and with Elliot having three other entries, in Veinard, Ben Dundee, and Duca De Thaix, he makes no appeal right now, certainly not off of his current mark. Of the other trio, I really like Ben Dundee, and he looks the one I’d take from the yard right now.

    With such a high quality entry, I could be here all day, but worthy of a mention, certainly off current ratings, are this trio. Divin Bere, who has to be forgiven his last run, but on a fair looking William H Bonney, who often flatters to deceive, but will surely pop up one day, and is simply massive at 33’s, and last, but not least, Moon Racer. Despite that Champion Hurdle flop, and his well documented setback, he’ll still come here on 142, and I’m extremely tempted by that 25’s.

    That’ll do for now, and a proper puzzle as usual, and that’s not even scratching the surface.

    No bet for now, but at the prices, Project Bluebook & Moon Racer make most appeal, while the head says Call Me Lord & Kayf Grace. Of the lower profile ones, then definitely Ben Dundee or Poppy Kay.

    Not hard to see why I ain’t betting yet, but gun to my head…..

    Project Bluebook 33’s Each Way

    #1336797
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2031

    No mention of Lalor?

    By all accounts this has been the plan for a while and he has the right profile for the race – unfortunately, it’s reflected in the price but a massive shout nonetheless surely.

    I’ve also been a bit of a Project Bluebook follower throughout his career but must admit that my patience is warring thin with him and it’s constantly following these types which is harming my betting profit.

    #1336845
    Avatar photoLemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 627

    Not original but I think Lalor looks solid too.
    Good luck VtC if you do side with Bluebook. I would be delighted if he won this for my ten to follow but I think he might be winning later in the season. I was going to sub him out but I will probably just keep him in just in case.

    For this race it’s another you gave a mention to which I like and that’s Poppy Kay. I would like to see the stable switch work for Wishfull Dreaming, and it’ll be interesting to see how he runs on Saturday

    #1336849
    Avatar photoMarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3073

    Misterton for me, though not as confident a pick at this stage as Ballyandy was last year.

    #1336959
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16004

    Sorry Charles, bit of a rushed job, it has not been a straightforward week at work, and it was less waffle than usual lol. Yup, Lalor looks a serious prospect, and looks to have the ideal profile for this, and no surprise to see him at the head of the market. Race isn’t that far off really, and could see that 9’s start to evaporate soon.

    Yeah Lemons, I would keep him in your team. I think if you’re patient with him, he’ll get you points. Maybe not here, but I just think he’s got a prize in him. Certainly no money down yet myself, but he’d be my pick right now anyway, though as I said, I really like him for The County Hurdle, and he could be tailor made for The Scottish Champion Hurdle too. Good to see you like Poppy Kay, I think she has a decent future.

    #1337054
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8400

    LALOR 10/1 for race for me novices have decent form in race and has run well in races as well to

    #1337808
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2031

    The weights came out today and he’s currently off 10st6 and connections seem very happy indeed with that. He’s still 10/1 generally so I’ve nibbled on that myself with the thinking he could well be sent off 4/1 favourite.

    #1338811
    Avatar photojoliff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 350

    Jenkins should take all the beating here now after his win last week, the talking horse finally realising his potential!

    #1338823
    Avatar photoDegaussed
    Participant
    • Total Posts 568

    Moon Racer is currently declared. Does anyone know if he’s likely to run? He could make a mockery of his 142 rating.

    #1338837
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16004

    Sorry Degaussed, no idea, but still very keen on him. Not his biggest fan, but if they’ve got him right, it’s just a great mark.

    #1338918
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2031

    Jenkins should take all the beating here now after his win last week, the talking horse finally realising his potential!

    Indeed he looks to have a decent shout, I backed him the past twice and he helped get me onto page 1 in the ATR Stable Stars comp.

    I worry about his tendency to over-race early and it may find him out in such a fiercely competitive affair.

    #1339613
    wasps41
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1161

    Moonracer faces a race against time to be ready for this apparently

    #1339617
    Avatar photobotchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6559

    Not a clue if she is going for the race but Irish Roe is improving at a fair rate of knots this year. No reason to say she has not finished yet either. If trained by a more established trainer could well be a fair bit shorter after yesterdays run :whistle:

    20’s seems to be going this afternoon. :unsure:

    #1339625
    droffats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 611

    Good shout. The 20s now gone, only 14s now and if yesterday result is correct could well be thrown in.

    #1339778
    Avatar photobotchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6559

    droffarts

    Looks like it could be on the cards. Like the trainers comment ” She’s not going to have the chance to run in a handicap off 134 again ”

    Could well be quite easily 10 lbs well in :yes:

    http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12426/11227681/irish-roe-in-betfair-hurdle-contention

    #1339855
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2031

    Irish Roe will still be running off a 6 pound higher mark than when winning her last race (a handicap at Doncaster) and she came up well short when stepped up in class at Cheltenham and Aintree last year. I’m not saying she doesn’t have a good chance, it’s only that I wouldn’t want to take her run behind Maria’s Benefit as a sign she’s now miles ahead of her mark considering what she’s shown previous in her career.

    #1339876
    TimJames
    Participant
    • Total Posts 313

    Timeform have raised Irish Roe from 133 to 137 following Saturdays’ run.

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 74 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.