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I’ve already had a few quid on Moon Racer at 25s, and I’m glad to see that he stands his
ground here, and I’m going to add Verdana Blue at 12s. She won easier than
the 3 lengths at Ascot in November suggest, his chance could easily have gone after being
very badly hampered and nearly losing Nico De Boinville at the 1st. She worked her way back
into it and in the end was an easy winner. She was up 8lbs for that, but was a little unlucky
to come up against a couple of well handicapped horses the following month, again at Ascot
when 3rd. The winner, a decent sort in Hunters Call, and 2nd were raised 9 and 3lbs respectively.
I like the booking of Davy Russell and think she has a big shout.Well done Lemons taking the 14s, that’s well gone
Autumnal I think Charli Parcs is a good shout though I was hoping Henderson would save it for the County Hurdle!
Kayf Grace for me, this mare looks like a very serious prospect. A strongly run race on soft ground, is going to bring about a lot of improvement from her.
I’d say he’s had this race as the plan for a long time for her, off a good mark, she’s going to run a big race, 12’s is a fair price.
From the family of Denman, Newbury should suit her very nicely indeed one would hope.
Good luck all, cracking race.
Correct me if i’m wrong, but if Parcs is on a rating of 145 and doesn’t run a good race, he could get dropped to a mark that rules him out of the county ?
Ended up tying myself in knots looking through this card earlier this week, however in an unexpected moment of clarity – I’ve come down on the side of Misterton for this. The bare form through this winter is eye catching and think he’s still fairly treated to take this. I’ve copied @Lemons68’s homework and added Verdana Blue as an each way bet, I think she could benefit from being ridden slightly more prominently this time. Will probably also take a bit of Moon Racer at 25/1.
Kalashnikov for me in this. Looks to be steadily improving and if the ground is soft at worse then a solid EW bet. I would also give Silver Streak a squeak although the fact the jockey hasn’t had a winner for a couple of months slightly worries me.
I have backed these to win:
Verdana blue 14’s
Moon Racer 25’s
Silver Streak 16’sId love to see Irish Roe run well as she is a big fancy of mine for the Mares novice Hurdle.
I boiled this down to a shortlist of: Misterton, Kayf Grace, Knocknanuss and Silver Streak. I’m not usually one for trends but then I looked at the last ten runnings and it’s startling! All winners aged 5 or 6 and highest winning weight 11st 2lb. Only Silver Streak fits the bill and E/W @ 16/1 1/4, 1-5 that’ll do for me, so I’m with Kev and Charlie.
@raymo
Schofield has 9 wins and a 30% strike rate when riding for Fry. The big, big negative is that he’s 0-45 at Newbury, which is bizarre given the trainers with whom he’s connected.Lalor for me, looks well handicapped and this smooth travelling sort will benefit from the likely strong pace.
Dipped the toe in one final time on Spiritofthegames at 25/1. This 6 year old has only run 6 times and is being tries in first time cheek-pieces for his first tackle at 2 miles after being campaigned to some deal of success over further. The Skelton yard is ticking along nicely and Bridget Andrews seemed to get on well with the horse when guiding him to second in the Lanzarote behind a very classy horse in the shape of William Henry. Hopefully there is plenty of pace on as he is a 3 mile winning pointer but from what I’ve seen he’s got plenty of toe and should make his presence felt here.
Other than that I’m very happy to be sat on Kalashnikov and Lalor both at 14/1 even though neither seem very popular on here which I find somewhat surprising considering they are both classy looking novices who have the right profile for this race looking back on previous winners. Amy Murphy’s charge in particular looks well worth his mark of 141. He ran away with his races before fining heavy ground and an uphill finish too much in a Grade 1 last time. The form of that race looks pretty decent in hindsight as Tom George thinks something of the winner, the third has a good form-line with First Flow through his defeat of Dancing Shadow and Western Ryder ran a cracker in yesterday’s Sidney Banks Memorial. Amy Murphy’s stable is going well too with 5 wins from 20 runners in the past 14 days including Mercian Prince last weekend.
As for Lalor, well wouldn’t it be a touching story if he could pull it off given the sad passing of Richard Woollacott. The horse has been kept fresh and well for this outing and like Kalashnikov has the right profile for it. He goes well on all sorts of ground conditions and the form of his Aintree bumper win is outstanding with those in defeat including but not limited to: Enniscoffey Oscar, Western Ryder, If The Cap Fits, Claimantakinforgan, Black Op and Tikkanbar. On his last start he split Western Ryder and Summerville Boy which is good form on face-value and represented an improvement on his previous efforts this campaign. I feel this course will suit him more than Cheltenham and a fierce pace would be well appreciated.
Kalashnikov 14/1
Lalor 14/1
Spiritofthegames 25/1Best of luck everyone.
From my blog:
This is the old Schweppes Trophy, a cracking race and one that all tipsters like to nail. If we had any brains, we’d waste no time on it and look for a winner in a more sensible race. But fortune supposedly favours the brave, and there are three horses in this who look over-priced to me. The first is Spiritofthegames who is an improving young horse who’s been running over longer trips. He’s looked a bit wayward in the finish but it might just be inexperience and the first time cheekpieces should help as will his rider’s 3lb claim.
Next is Divin Bere who’s being talked down by trainer Nicholls mostly on account of the ground. But this is Divin Bere’s first outing on soft and his sire’s stock has a better strike rate on soft than on good or good to soft. The horse is much better than he showed last time on his yard debut, having moved from Henderson, and he looks too big in the betting by quite some way.
The same can be said of a horse who finished a neck behind him in the Fred Winter last season – Nietzsche. His jockey reported last time that he felt the horse had gone to sleep a bit in his usual hood and the trainer has left it off this time. Nietzsche has won in this ground and I think this sort of race and track will suit.
Whatever you are backing, it might be worth noting that the last horse older than 6 to win this was Geos in 2004.
Spiritofthegames 25/1
Divin Bere 40/1
Nietzsche 40/1“I boiled this down to a shortlist of: Misterton, Kayf Grace, Knocknanuss and Silver Streak. I’m not usually one for trends but then I looked at the last ten runnings and it’s startling! All winners aged 5 or 6 and highest winning weight 11st 2lb. Only Silver Streak fits the bill and E/W @ 16/1 1/4, 1-5 that’ll do for me, so I’m with Kev and Charlie.”
is lalor not a contender off 11st 1lb and 6yo??
Kalashnikov is a cracking bet at 12s imo.
The ground last time was massively against him and I can’t get away from the way he travelled that day. Looked like a really good horse.
Whilst I’m only gonna be backing him, I would say Moon Racer and Divin Bere at both overpriced and I’d kick myself if either of those won.
The shortlist is:
Misterton- 20/1
Kayf Grace- 12/1
Poppy Kay- 25/1
Lalor- 12/14 horses doesn’t seem too extreme to me given the prices and e/w terms…. i will bet partly with bookmakers, and exchanges trying to get a nicer win bet.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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