Grand National 2017

Middle_Of_March wrote:

After my extremely early and small antepost plays months ago on Vicente, The Last Samuri and One For Arthur (after his latest win as I said I would at the time), I’ve decided I’m now going to play weekly on One For Arthur.

His 10lb rise gets him in the National off 147, his target is the race and he won’t run again before it. For me, I’ll keep adding to the 40/1 I took after the race (cheers to the poster who highlighted that price at the time) now at 25s.

Was so close to success when doing this method last year with The Last Samuri and I’m convinced he’d have won on better ground. Perhaps this year, I’ll go one place better.

Main national play – One For Arthur

Get in there you beauty!

I’ve added One For Arthur at 33/1 in Coral’s 2018 Gold Cup book while our friends at Ladbrokes have introduced him at 25/1.

He’d need to go on again but wouldn’t be a million miles away with that sort of performance. Extreme stayers are building up a solid record of winning or placing in the race with Mon Mome, Hedgehunter, Synchronised, Minella Rocco, Halcon Genelardais and Neptune Collonges hitting the frame in recent years. One For Arthur is a stronger traveller than a few of those too.

I’ve just managed to watch the race(without finding out the result) and i’m over the moon. Who would have thought a horse trained near Milnathort, just 19 miles from where I live would win the greatest race in the world, unbelievable!!

A fantastic ride from Derek Fox. And to think Mick Fitz said you couldn’t hunt round for the first circuit anymore.

So, so delighted for Lucinda and Scu. Can’t wait to see her at Perth later in the month.

On a side note it does take something away when the winning jockey doesn’t come into the winners enclosure on his mount and it would be nice for the horse to get the adulation from the crowd but all in all a wonderful national.

Highly delighted for Lucinda, Scotland, Scu and Derek Fox in that order! Fab result.. Mrs GD did it even if I didn’t..

PS I was born in Perth and this makes me very happy :)

GoldenMiller34 wrote:

Competitive as always and a reasonable quality of field even if a tad below some recent years. One would think six plus horses would be battling it out in the last fifty yards but that rarely happens. There is often a decisive winner. The race has a habit of sorting them out, fancied or not! I have endeavoured to do likewise, better to have a strong opinion and be very right or very wrong than to sit on the fence and back too many. I’ll be looking for six places each way and the sixth has been known to finish quite well back. I’ve listed horses in order of my base (before pros and cons, mainly the latter!) weight adjusted predicted performance rating (RPR source) so here goes (projected going: Good (on G-S side of)): ANALYSIS: GOING WAS GOOD NOT THE OFFICIAL G-S. THE PACESETTERS WENT TOO FAST, THEY ALL PAID FOR IT AND THE PACE COLLAPSED ALLOWING HORSES FROM WELL BACK TO PROSPER – THE FINEST EXAMPLE BEING THE GOOD WINNER.

Lord Windermere 186 sure doesn’t retain remotely this ability, current form diabolical, slight concerns re stamina and jumping anyway. JUMPED OK, GOT HOME BUT 28L BEHIND, SHOWED NO MORE ABILITY THAN RECENTLY, WAS ABOUT 37L OFF GC WINNING FORM. THAT THIS WAS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 7TH ILLUSTRATES HOW FEW HORSES RAN TO THEIR BEST FOR ONE REASON OR ANOTHER
Vieux Lion Rouge 182 only issue is will he stay. I’m 50/50 and would rather take a chance he will than on a lower rated horse with jumping or other concerns. WIN THOUGH FINISHED 6TH BASICALLY DIDN’T STAY. NOT HELPED BY GETTING INVOLVED WITH THE TOO FAST PACE TOO EARLY. NOTWITHSTANDING SHOULD’VE BEEN ABLE TO GO WITH BLAKLION FROM 26TH AND BEATEN HIM. 30+ BELOW HOPED FOR.
Vicente 182 only concern is has his own way of jumping (soft mouth), Brian Hughes is great but his debut on horse who has jumped best for STD so no. WHAT IRONY! BEFORE HIS OWN JUMPING COULD BE TESTED WAS BD AT 1ST. EXPECT TO SEE AT AYR.
O’Faolains Boy 180 has had another wind op but does not appear to retain anything like this ability, also stamina concerns. NO BETTER. ALWAYS MID-DIV, DIDN’T CHASE PACE YET STILL TIRED AND PU. SHOULD BE RETIRED.
Tenor Nivernais 179 won’t like going, won’t stay, slight jumping worry. NEVER ON TERMS, PROBABLY HATED GOING. POINTLESS OUTING.
Definitly Red 179 his jumping is generally improving but I don’t trust it holding up here. PLAIN UNLUCKY, NOTHING LEARNED.
Saphir Du Rheu 177 solid concerns re jumping and stamina. FELL BOOTH FIRST CIRCUIT!! DREADFUL ERROR – SO TOO BY TRAINER TO RUN HERE JUST AS HORSE HAD BEGUN TO LOOK MORE CONFIDENT WITH PARK FENCES.
Ballynagour 177 hit and miss, more miss lately.Jumping here. Stamina concerns. Hold up horse so will need luck in running. MISS AGAIN! NEVER NEARER 11TH, 47 BELOW BEST.
Regal Encore 176 jumping, often not travel, may get too far behind and seems prone to meeting trouble in running/bad luck/errors. GOT ROUND IN 8TH, 25+ BELOW BEST. NEVER INVOLVED, MERELY BENEFITED FROM PACE COLLAPSE.
Double Shuffle 176 strong concern re jumping, worry re stamina (and how will he take preliminaries?) STAYED CALM, JUMPED WELL, TOO CLOSE TO FAST PACE (CHASED LEADERS) SO STAMINA BEGAN TO EBB FROM CANAL TURN
Blaklion 175 possibly 177 but is on the small side for course (like Holywell last year who soon fell!) WHAT A SHAME NOEL FEHILY. JUMPED FINE, INHERITED LEAD 26TH TRAVELLING WELL HAVING MADE STEADY PROGRESS BUT SHOULD’VE BEEN HELD ONTO AFTER ANCHOR BRIDGE CROSSING. COULD’VE BEEN VERY CLOSE WITH WINNER AS ONLY 10 BELOW REQUIRED PERFORMANCE DESPITE JOCKEY’S RUSH OF BLOOD.
One For Arthur 175 possibly 177 but will be held up (or more likely somewhat outpaced) so will need luck in running and would probably prefer softer going. GOOD PERFORMANCE, PROGRESSIVE. DID 177 ADJUSTED, CARRIED 17LBS LESS THAN 12-0 SO EXPECTING RP TO RATE 160. WOULD PROBABLY HAVE RUN AS WELL IF PACE HAD BEEN MORE JUDICIOUS BUT TURNED OUT TO BE PARTICULARLY SUITED BY EVENTS, GETTING A CLEAR RUN THROUGH AND WINNING WITH A BIT IN HAND. PERHAPS MOST CRUCIALLY HANDLED GOING ABSOLUTELY FINE. RE-EXAMINATION OF BACK FORM ON GOOD SUGGESTS I WAS PUT AWAY BY FEARS EMANATING FROM STABLE THAT PROVED UNFOUNDED!
Bishops Road 175 strong concern re jumping, another re current form, and slight worry re going. ALWAYS TOWARDS REAR, DID NIL.
Cocktails At Dawn 175 huge concern re jumping, class, stamina and current form. FELL IST, TRAINER SHOULD KNOW BETTER BUT, HEY, ACHIEVED THE ELIMINATION OF NICHOLL’S BEST HOPE… TO PROBABLY SEAL TRAINERS TITLE (EVEN IF VICENTE WINS SGN)!!
Thunder And Roses 175 concern re jumping, Brian Cooper has chosen to ride Mouse’s other runner and has had a hard season. NO VERDICT AS HAMPERED BY LOOSE HORSE AND UR.
Le Mercurey 174 looks to need some cut and doubt will stay. NEVER NEARER 12TH, 45 BELOW BEST. GAINED EXPERIENCE I SUPPOSE.
More Of That 173 slight concern re jumping, not at all convinced will stand up to demands of race physically. BAD MISTAKE EARLY, WEAKENED 27TH (AND WASN’T INVOLVED WITH PACE), PU, REST MY CASE!
Wounded Warrior 172 slight concern re jumping, much bigger one re form over last year (not seem to be same horse following several month absence). ALWAYS TOWARDS REAR, TAILED OFF!!
Ucello Conti 172 has improved in all respects since last year when plugged on, going will be fine. Can survive the burden of Daryl Jacob (who has at least won the race)! E/W RATS, WAS TRAVELLING WELL WHEN SAINT ARE JUMPED ACROSS HIM 2ND BECHER’S. OF COURSE, JACOB SHOULD HAVE KNOWN EXACTLY THAT WAS ABOUT TO HAPPEN LOL.
La Vaticane 172 lacks the class, won’t stay, course record not encouraging. I SUPPOSE GETTING ROUND 56 BELOW BEST WAS IMPROVEMENT!!
Cause Of Causes 171 lacks the class (best form in class 2), lacks fluency early, will get too far behind in this class, and is always 20 below best in race after his Cheltenham target. COULDN’T HAVE BEEN MORE WRONG, SUITED BY COLLAPSE OF PACE AND ACHIEVED ADJUSTED 171.
The Last Samuri 170 possibly 172, rock solid (but something better weighted will deny him) E/W COMPLETELY WRONG AGAIN! WEIGHT NOT THE ISSUE. PERHAPS PAID FOR TRYING TO GET INVOLVED EARLY WITH A PACE THAT TURNED OUT TO BE TOO FAST AND CERTAINLY QUICKER THAN HE CAN COMFORTABLY GO NOW. PERHAPS JUST AN OFF DAY. BEARING IN MIND DONCASTER WHERE HE LOOKED A BIT LABOURED IT MAKES DEFINITLY RED’S HANDICAP MARK A BIT OF A PROBLEM FOR THAT HORSE.
Measureofmydreams 170 solid concern re jumping and not sure Mr Meade can get him to the same level as Mr Mullins. JURY OUT ON LATTER CONCERN AS CAPSIZED AT CHAIR!
Pendra 170 concern re jumping, don’t think will stay and is best fresh not in the race after a target. NR. DOCTOR HARPER PREDICTABLY MADE NO IMPACT.
Goodtoknow170 concern re jumping (tends to jump right), might not fully stay, will not be near best on the likely going in this class. INDEED WEAKENED 27TH TO FINISH 45 BELOW BEST BUT RAN QUITE WELL TO THAT POINT SO MAY HAVE SURPRISED A LITTLE IF HAD BEEN KEPT BACK OFF PACE.
Shantou Flyer 169 minor worry re jumping but none otherwise and prepared to take my pot shot on this one finishing in the six at a huge price E/W ANOTHER DISASTER! SENSIBLY RACED MID-DIV BUT RUN OUT OF PUFF SECOND CANAL TURN. SICK AND TIRED OF THIS TRAINER’S RUNNERS UNDERPERFORMING.
Saint Are 169 fundamentally a poor jumper and hard to get away with it again to place. WRONG AGAIN! RAN A STORMER TO GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF PREDICTED MARK. WAS ALWAYS REASONABLY CLOSE TO TOO FAST PACE AS WELL. MY EXCUSE IS WAS NOT AWARE OF BLINKERS FIRST TIME WHEN I DID PREVIEW!
Just A Par 167 two poor runs over course, two ways of running, and style of being held up/outpaced isn’t ideal – may run no race. RAN NO RACE!
Raz De Maree 167 chief concern is he will be soon under pressure to go the pace on the going, also worry re jumping as is a small horse. NO VERDICT AS BADLY HAMPERED WHEN UR FIRSST BECHER’S.
Rogue Angel 167 (choice of Cooper), complete but will probably not be good enough to get in the six. GOT HEAVILY INVOLVED WITH TOO FAST PACE, WEAKENED SO BADLY AS A RESULT FROM 29TH THAT WAS PU AT LAST!
Drop Out Joe 166 slight concerns re jumping and class but major worry will not stay. ALWAYS MID TO REAR, PU LAST. IN FAIRNESS INFO CAME TO LIGHT HORSE MAY NOT HAVE BEEN FIT/RETAIN ABILITY FOLLOWING SERIOUS INJURY.
Pleasant Company 166 complete but probably not good enough to get in first six. FINISHED 9TH, 17 BELOW EXPECTED. VERY BAD MISTAKE SECOND VALENTINE’S PROBABLY KNOCKED STUFFING OUT OF SO DIDN’T STAY. WITHOUT THAT ERROR COULD WELL HAVE BEEN 5TH AS EVENTS TURNED OUT.
Roi Des Francs 165 slight jumping worry, bigger concerns re going and stamina in this class. IN FACT JUMPED AND TRAVELLED WELL ON GOING, SURVIVED BEING HAMPERED BY LOOSE HORSE GOING OUT ONTO SECOND CIRCUIT…BUT WAS HEAVILY INVOLVED WITH PACE AND (INEVITABLY) WEAKENED SO BADLY FROM THE END OF THE CANAL SIDE HE FINISHED 70 BELOW MARK.
The Young Master 165 strong jumping concern, butchered the course in Becher and prone to error on park courses anyway. would be course specialist SWC’s finest ride to finish 10th! DID NOT SURVIVE FIRST BECHER’S, DESTROYING DEFINITLY RED’S RACE IN PROCESS. SILLY TO RUN.
Stellar Notion 165 slight jumping concern but absolutely will not stay (especially as is keen). KEEN, PROMINENT, BAD MISTAKE 1ST, DROPPED AWAY AFTER BECHER’S AND TAILED OFF WHEN PU 12TH. DIDN’T TAKE TO IT I GUESS. SERIOUS PUNDITS PUT THIS UP!!!!
Highland Lodge 164 has it all to do on my figures anyway but definitely, as an enthusiastic prominent racer, will not stay. WAS CLOSE TO PACE, WEAKENED AFTER ANCHOR BRIDGE CROSSING, PU, NOT STAY!
Houblon Des Obeaux 163 not what was, concerned re jumping, won’t like the going. GOING! NEVER NEARER 10TH, 30 BELOW MARK.
Perfect Candidate 161 flattered by Exeter rating, Fergal is the one trainer about whom I’m slightly concerned re stableform and am worried horse could perform well below best in a race of this value in grade 3. YES. WEAKENED FROM 25TH, PU 27TH. BEING PROMINENT FROM EARLY AT THAT PACE SEALED FATE.
Wonderful Charm 156 worried re class now (outpaced in Cheltenham Foxhunters!) and not convinced will stay anyway. LAST, JUST THE 71 BELOW MARK!
Gas Line Boy 156 will be below best in this class despite the stiffer test of stamina and his jumping is such that even Robbie Dunne (see last year’s race) may not retain the partnership here! WELL! MISTAKE SECOND CANAL TURN BUT JUMPING HAS IMPROVED SINCE JOINING IAN WILLIAMS. HATS OFF TO DUNNE AGAIN. SAT OFF PACE AND WAS ABLE TO STAY ON INTO 5TH IN RACE THAT FELL APART BEHIND THE FRONT THREE. DID 4 BETTER THAN MY PREDICTED FIGURE.

(Of the potential ‘reserves’ Bless The Wings 171 is worth a mention but, as a 12yo, I’m concerned he won’t have pace enough to get in the six).

Given that he was awash with sweat before the start I think Lord Windermere has run extremely well.

Congratulations to everyone who won. I had Lord Windermere each way 6 places (finished 7th), still, I got a run for my money and they all came back safe.

Venture to Cognac wrote:

GM, just for info, and don’t know whether important for your notes or not, I know you keep records, but Vicente fell, and wasn’t brought down.

Thanks VTC, I think he did fall having read Brian Hughes’s comment. The RP had got it wrong and now changed it, I haven’t checked any other site yet. I haven’t checked any other video than RUK’s either and neither first fence fall can be seen properly on there!

Yes, I’m in the process of trying to create the ultimate GN history website so will certainly be checking all sources thoroughly when I get to this year’s race in the summer. 1994 first when I resume. Just hand writing the basic horse/age/weight/trainer/jockey/odds/outcome/description of how ran/etc. at the mo. Then have to learn how to build a website! Create indices for horses/jockeys/trainers with a sentence on each, write half a page per race in the form of answering pertinent questions (e.g. Why did Devon Loch collapse?) and a few other bits and pieces. Then all the typing up! Hoping it will be ready to go online in about 3 years as only really have May – Sept to do it.

Well, the RPR awarded for One For Arthur is indeed 160. Will have to continue to progress another stone to win GC and that race would not be enough of a stamina test unless run on Soft.

That was Cause Of Causes best ever run, Frank Berry says they’ve been happier with horse this year, but still only an RPR of 158 (personally I’d say 156).

Lord Windermere has been given 133, Stilvi, 35 below GC winning RPR but that he even did that was remarkable given the state he was in.