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After my extremely early and small antepost plays months ago on Vicente, The Last Samuri and One For Arthur (after his latest win as I said I would at the time), I’ve decided I’m now going to play weekly on One For Arthur.
His 10lb rise gets him in the National off 147, his target is the race and he won’t run again before it. For me, I’ll keep adding to the 40/1 I took after the race (cheers to the poster who highlighted that price at the time) now at 25s.
Was so close to success when doing this method last year with The Last Samuri and I’m convinced he’d have won on better ground. Perhaps this year, I’ll go one place better.
Main national play – One For Arthur
Have had my first bets on this today , GOODTOKNOW 100/1 and BISHOPS ROAD 66/1 both e w . Good reinforced his claims today and gives him a chance of getting in and B R s form is there for all to see . Kerry s record in big staying races is a bonus and both represent fair value
The absence of Silvinaco Conti, Holywell and Double Ross leaves me with a shortlist of 4; Houblon Des Obeaux, O’Faolains Boy, Vieux Lion Rouge and More Of That. I’d be more than happy to stick with them for the time being with a view to adding one more that catches the eye between now and then. Hadrians Approach rarely races these days without an investment from me and I’d be interested to see if Tour Des Champs makes the cut…
Gutted that Double Ross doesn’t go Peter, just hope we see him one more time round there in The Topham, unless injured of course. After an excellent set of entries last year, just a bit underwhelmed with them myself, but sure I’ll change my tune as the weeks go on.
Always a nervy day when the entries come out, as I see where I stand with my bets.
Of my original fancies, Cause of Causes & The Young Master are still in there, but Henri Parry Morgan doesn’t go, and let’s face it, he hasn’t looked up to it this year, and not the biggest shock in the world.As with my Cheltenham bets, no point in listing those who didn’t get an entry. Some I made profit from, some I very definitely didn’t. Biggest loser was Fletchers Flyer, most painful was Three Faces West, and my current biggest winner is Tiger Roll. My main focus now is to try and go “green”. Looking at my book, it looks like my now annual tradition of “having my work cut out” is going to continue, though very happy I kept to my very strict staking.
Main fancies are now Tiger Roll, Lord Scoundrel, More of That, and Cause of Causes. Fancying Cause of Causes for this is now something of an annual tradition itself, and even though my #1 rule in the race is to avoid anything who’s ran over the fences before, particularly if they have ran in The National previously, I just can’t leave him alone. I didn’t bother betting Cause of Causes at the slightly bigger odds on The Exchanges, and focussed more on just taking the 40’s, and combining him in a few other lines.
Cause of Causes 40’s
The Young Master 33’sA Toi Phil 360’s to 500’s
Doctor Harper 1000’s
Dromnea 1000’s
Goodtoknow 110’s
Lord Scoundrel 170’s
More of That 550’s to 1000’s
O’Faolains Boy 70’s Laid 30’s
Otago Trail 250’s to 400’s Laid 60’s
Pleasant Company 360’s to 380’s
Potters Cross 1000’s
The Crafty Butcher 380’s to 1000’s
Tiger Roll 95’s to 410’s
Wounded Warrior 120’s
Ziga Boy 150’s to 250’sThe absence of Silvinaco Conti, Holywell and Double Ross leaves me with a shortlist of 4; Houblon Des Obeaux, O’Faolains Boy, Vieux Lion Rouge and More Of That.
Just wondering if Curtis is ever going to get him out…well handicapped (you’d hope/imagine!) and different gravy to most of these. Carlingford Lough, Don Poli, Lord Windolene, More Of That, Minella Rocco, Outlander and Road to Riches the only ones who can compete purely on class.
I’ve had two bets so far, The Last Samuri at 20s and Don Poli at 25s (both with Coral last week) – they are likely to have their fair share of weight, but they are the two class horses of the race. TLS is the obvious one having ran so well in it last year and the Bechers, but think he can belie his higher rating, and DP is a reliable jumper and strong stayer – I’ll look forward to seeing how he fares in the Irish Gold Cup later this month.
I always bet 2 or 3 selections for The Grand National around Xmas and have a few pounds in the last few days
Blaklion 40-1
O’Faolains Boy 66-1
Measureofmydreams 40-1I wanted to add more after the poor run from MOMD in The Thyestes, but I will hold off. I am happy with the other two for now.
Otago Trail out, I’m very glad I laid some off, but still a bit of a disappointment.
A shame about Seeyouatmidnight but I’ve still got Vicente who double ticks all the boxes.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Trainer said last month Nath that The Rendlesham Hurdle, then The Scottish National was the plan for Seeyouatmidnight, though he had met with a setback after The Betfair.
Scottish National could be within range, ran a blinder last year.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
The 4.00 at Leopardstown holds quite a lot of Grand National entries
The two jockeys with experience of riding National winners
Barry Geraghty (won on Monty’s Pass 2003) rides Carlingford Lough one of three for J P Mc Manus.
While David Mullins (won on present winner Rule The World) rides Don Poli one of three for Gigginstown House Stud.
Only Sizing John in this race doesn’t hold a National entry.I liked the way Minella Rocco shaped against the ill-fated Many Clouds (R.I.P) on his last run and given Many Clouds run against Thistlecrack and Le Mercurey (who was second that day) run against Native River yesterday. I think Minella Rocco could run a big race.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Given that ideally he wants good ground and a pace to run at that was some performance to come there swinging on the bridle. He has proved himself well up to Grade 1 standard today and if they can freshen him up and he gets his optimum conditions then he can find another 7lbs+. He should now be favourite for the Ryanair.
^ Got 6/1 UDS to win any race and I think he deserves to be favourite, Stilvi, But have taken 10/1 EOD for the Ryanair.
Value Is EverythingEven without the financial interest it would be nice to get this right. He has ticked the Grade 1 box and there were plenty of positives out of yesterday’s race. Given a proper pace (which I flagged up as a concern beforehand) I genuinely think he would have gone close to winning on the bridle. In any case without losing a couple of lengths and impetus at the last he would still have gone very close to winning. I suggested on VTC’s thread that he should be around 165 after that performance. Given his optimum conditions he might well find another 7lbs.
A couple of years ago I was very keen on Un De Sceaux winning a Champion Hurdle. He made a promising start over fences but since Walsh started restraining him the pace and natural exuberance seems to have disappeared. He is now efficient, not spectacular. He remains good, but not very good. I don’t like the way he balloons his fences and I think good ground will be a negative whatever the trip. I think the Clarence House was a very poor race.
I would fancy Empire Of Dirt to beat him with the minimum of fuss. The two worries would be the length of time needed to freshen him up and although he now looks a very good jumper you always need a little bit of luck with a hold up ride.
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