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JG would’ve known if Calyx had a chance a month ago though. I actually agree with what he was going to do, keep him away from TDH who is miles better on form(same race RPR as Frankel in last 2yr old race) and start him more gentle next week in the pav stakes before deciding whether to go SJP or CC. This does look like a decision based on TDH being out and whilst I’m sure he wouldn’t do anything at all that wasn’t with the horse’s welfare in mind, it does seem a little unfair on him after such a long time out.
why, as an AOB horse has he been so weak in the market, even now with the race cut up a lot he’s still not that strong?
I think AOB second strings are often weak in ante-post markets, possibly because punters think the second string might not run.
If I were Coolmore/AOB I’d want Ryan on Ten Sovereigns – not because he stands a much better chance – but because the jockey is an expert at getting horses settled; where as Magna Grecia is a far easier ride at this trip. ie Ryan riding Ten Sovereigns maximises Coolmore/AOB’s chance of winning.
Maybe I’m a bit harsh on Persian King then GT, I’m just not that convinced about French horses generally lately, purely a feeling rather than anything I can strongly back up at the moment. Given what you say, if PK was really good though, connections would be more confident he’d win and he would probably go the Eng 2000 right? Winning an Eng 2000 has a bigger value than Fre 2000 for future stud purposes etc or is that not really the case or too simplistic a view? I guess all things being equal, what would they rather win, Eng or Fre Guineas?
You’re right to be generally not that convinced about French horses, Frenchy; they’ve certainly struggled against the Brits and Irish in recent years. But there is usually one or two horses that bust that trend each year. Persian King has already gone against the grain by being a rare french victor of a British Group race in 2018. Yes, the Eng is usually better stud value than Fre… And yes, if Fabre was confident of PK being an absolute top notcher he might come to Newmarket… But Fabre also knows there are still a few rivals in the 2000 Guineas who could also be top notchers… Where as it doesn’t look as though there’s much to beat in the French Guineas. So yes – if he could choose which one to win it would be the English version. But chance of winning comes in to decision making before the race. Probably has around a 50%+ chance of winning a French Guineas and around 20% of winning the English. So not surprised they’re (probably) staying at home.
Value Is EverythingWould Johnny G have known a month ago if Calyx had a good chance of running? Not necessarily. Calyx won his debut on June 9th… And then impressively won the Group 2 Coventry just 10 days later! It’s unusual for a Gosden horse to run twice in quick succession. imo If Calyx was showing his brilliance a month before Royal Ascot then JG would’ve run Calyx earlier than he did on debut, in order to have more time between races – before Royal Ascot. Therefore, when Calyx came to hand last year he must have made massive improvement in no time at all… And it may have been a similar situation as a three year old.
That said – although I have 20/1 Calyx – wouldn’t advise anyone backing him now at 6/1. Not easy to put a speedy horse up from 6f to a mile in one go. Could’ve benefitted from a 7f prep.
Value Is EverythingThank you Jac, I agree with you that Gosden won’t run Calyx as an experiment,
but only if he sees a realistic chance.
So far I am just glad that chances grow considerably his withdrawal will be prevented.Jack you reacted quite fair and I appreciate that.
I am really interested in keeping the peace and so I will leave it that way.I would like to concentrate on enjoying the pre-excitement for this race,
let us all see what is going to happen.Just an off topic-alert for Jac:
(Karl) Mildenberger runs tomorrow at Epsom, so don’t miss and enjoy it
(Karl) Mildenberger runs tomorrow at Epsom, so don’t miss and enjoy it
Seems he never got out of Kaiserslautern. Born there, died there last year.
Exactly, and he didn’t go down against Ali in his prime
If the horse shows similar guts, it’ll be hard to beat. cheers for the heads up Hein I’ve just got on at 11/4 Mildenburger and a last chance for Mythical Madness EW at 14/1 also rev.forecast with the Legend. 
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Personally I don’t think Andre Fabre is worried about the opposition Persian King would encounter at Newmarket, I think the plan has always been the French 2000 Guineas then the French Derby and possibly further, I think he has the potential to be the best three year old in Europe and it could also be that Godolphin expect a better performance from Royal Marine in the Guineas after his run in the Craven.
Can see why Fabre would stay in France with the horse
Will be a much easier race for better prize money
You might be right GT, for me it’s a bit fishy, but who knows with JG anyway! Thanks for the earlier reply, I’ve had a real good look again at the race and a lot is going to depend on how the race is run etc. Do you have any view on how AOB will try and dictate it yet? He will need a middle pace no, if he’s trying to run it to settle TS and get him home? (obviously not all upto AOB, but he does like to try!)
Money is starting to come for Madhmoon I see. I don’t know why people aren’t more keen on him. He beat Broome by 2.5L in a Group 2 under hands & heels at the end on only his second start. Broome then went on to finish a neck 2nd to Royal Marine, who people talk a lot about and won the Group 3 Ballysax by 8L. People can say what they like about that race, but 8L in a Group3 is not to be ignored. Royal Marine recorded an RPR of 113 in that race last year against Madhmoon 114. You could easily argue Madhmoon has the best form in the book of horses certain to stay well based on RPR. His prep was on soft and he was carrying condition. That could’ve put him spot on for this. He could easily go off 4, 5 or 6s I think.
The more I look at Magna Grecia, the more I actually just don’t think he’ll be good enough. He might be because the race is cutting up a bit, but his breeding isn’t good enough for me. Invincible Spirit got close with Kingman but he was out of a French 1000 Guineas Mare with an RPR of 123 in the book already, but otherwise Invincible Spirit doesn’t scream Guineas Winner and that last run of MG, just looked like a race with Group 2 and 3 horses in it and he nearly lost it to Pheonix of Spain. I can see he did pretty well in 5 weeks to be fair, but he has a bit of the Gustav Klimt look about him to me. He’s decent, but not classic decent. Lets see, could be completely wrong of course! For me I’m more and more excited about Madhmoon, just praying he goes, but the moves in the market are positive!
Frenchy, there has been another declaration phase so some have come out which probably explains Madhmoon being cut. Not sure it’ll be due to a lot of money, more just less runners.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Ginge – Calyx was pencilled in for a race three weeks before the Coventry and picked up a small niggle hence the rushed race prior. They knew he was good all along, he went off 2/1F for the Coventry with a Coolmore hotpot up against him.
I don’t think it was an afterthought personally reading through Grimthorpe’s comments –
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/calyx-team-poised-for-classic-call/165575
He’s also been in work just as long as TDH had been, so they were being trained the same way towards the race.
I agree the mile is a worry after not running in a while but the 7/2 Fav has also never run over further than 6F.
It’s a very interesting market, one which could yet take a few massive swings!
Ten sovs- Will he stay? Looks decent, but at his price he’s a defo no-no.
Magna Grecia- He’s the solid one. 6/1 i think he should be favourite. Obviously there has to be a slight concern the hype is about TS- but i think that’ll end up being because this fella isn’t as flashy. He stays the mile already + probably doesn’t work as well as his sprinter mate TS.
Skardu- Impressive in only his second run and based on RPRs he could be very progessive. Haggas generally knows when he has a decent one, and i think he might end up being very good. Good course form but the niggling doubt is the overall form of his win. He got a better ride than Royal Marine and was away and gone before RM could stay on. I think the 2nd and 3rd are decent, but probably unspectacular. At 6/1 he’s probably too short, but its the potential. He might be a horse i’d look to back on the day, if he drifts a little, but for now i would leave him.
Calyx- Probably would’ve been the best of these as a 2yo bar injury. His preparation for me, isn’t ideal at all. 6f combined with no run in so long is a real negative. The trainer will obviously want him to acquit himself well, but will he be trained with the season in mind rather than the 2000G? Absolutely.
Royal Marine- Has shortened a good bit recently, i would easily forgive that last run. He’s probably priced about right though, so he’d sit in the Skardu pile.
Mohaather- won’t stay for me at all. I wouldn’t have him on my mind for this.
Advertise- Raymo’s a fan anyway! He in theory has a very good piece of form behind TDH, but personally i wouldn’t be fully sure on him over a mile. At 12s i wouldn’t be fancying him myself.
Madhmoon- I thought he’d win his reappearance, but after watching the race i wasn’t than disappointed- i think a bit like Royal Marine, there was an overreaction at the time as they were preps. I would say he’s likely to start shorter than the 12/1 available, probably more a 13/2 shot.
AVD- I doubt he’s good enough, i fancied him earlier in the 2yo season as a possible to follow the route that many did in winning the Futurity, sadly i don’t think that’ll happen. I’ve a small bet at 33s.
Phoenix of Spain- Minus the fact, trainer said during last season he didn’t think Newmarket would suit (for his next race) as he was a big horse, i don’t see many standout negatives for him considering he’s 25s? Will be a bet.Zakouski, Kick On, Set Piece, Monkin and the rest wouldn’t probably have the form for me right now to warrant considering.
Can anyone suggest why POS is 25s? Maybe the trainer’s record in races like this?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Does seem a big price given in my opinion he would likely have won the racing post trophy had he not got squeezed between magna grecia and great Scott at a key point near the finish
Just cost him a bit of momentum
Phoenix of Spain definitely has a chance Jack bearing in mind, as Final Furlongs mentioned, he was hampered in his race against MG and only beaten a head. Western Australia 3rd has since flopped at Newmarket and amongst those also in the race Kick On has won the Fielden (Listed) and Turgrnev was beaten today at Epsom.
Magna Grecia seems key to the chances of POS and his 2nd to Persian King at Newmarket could hold the answer that if Persian King turns up on the day he will beat them both because on that day I was there and can confirm that PK had gone in his coat and ran a below par race and still won.
Andre Fabre loves nothing better than to bring a horse to Newmarket for a Group 1 battle and if he turns up it would be no surprise to see him win it.. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Jac
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