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+65.15pts coming into today
-23 pts for the day
running total = + 42.15pts
Not a great day all in all, mostly through an inaccurate going description of soft for plumpton which was actually dusty in areas, suggesting firmer ground on those parts.
Was a bit gutted with the Rippling race as he made a mistake and was never travelling after that, then the other4 of the 5 horses I mentioned as having chances filled the top 4 places, but it was the two I went against that filled the forecast poition at better prices than the ones that I backed.
- Total Posts 17716
I’m glad I got away with only having backed Bushwacker and Take It There this afternoon as, had I been trying to adjust my approach as the day went along, I could have suffered some painful losses.
It really was ‘one of those days’.
Leicester 450
I’m a legend 1pt e/w 1ptwin @ 11-1
On the balance of his form in soft ground 2 mile hurdles and form over further on g/s, coupled with his pedigree, I would hope he should be suited to todays conditions.
Nelson 1 pt win @ 4-1
The obvious danger with ground in his favour and an in form 7lb claimer on board.
Catterick 340
Lap Of Honour 1pt e/w @ 66-1
Treeko 1pt e/w 25-1
Theres very little doubt in my mind that the ground at Catterick is good or not far off it, with this in mind both of thesse horses looked overpriced, despite the fact that I also like Sparrow Hills and Karmest in the same race.
Catterick 440
Sovietta 1pt e/w 14-1
Did’nt run too badly on only other start over hrudles, better horse on good on the flat, 7lb claimer on board and not badly priced.
+42.15pts coming into today
-10pts Almost everything I went on today went on the ground but failed to stay.
running totoal +32.15
Think will go back to being more selective again, there is money to be made when the ground is changing but as today has proved you need the right horse for the task.
230 Taunton
Summery Justice 4pts win @ 6-1
Was held up in the rear when they went a crawl in front, in the race won by Nictory Vote, where Ronaldo Des Mottes was 2nd, Summery Justice made late headway and got up for 4th. Expect that with a more reasonable pace on today he could be the winner.
Taunton 430
Synonymy 1pt e/w @ 100-1
Horse has only ever been tried twice at 2 miles over jumps, where on the one occasion that was slightly better paced, he finished fourth going best at the finish, on all his flat form he should appreciate a step up in trip. Today is only a step up of 3 furlongs but it may be enough to bring about a bit of improvement, trainer had mae cigan (another with an unsuitable campaign profile) fully fit on saturday to win. May be able to get a place, but needs them to go a reasonable clip to show his best.
Thurles 325
Healys Bar 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1 (Ladbrokes)
There are a few biggger names in this race with decent form but reckon that at a price, and on the balance of his 2 mile and 2m4f form, Healys bar may have everything up his street for a decent run today and could go close for the mighty McKiernan.
- Total Posts 17716
I’ve taken your advice and had an interest in Summery Justice, Bulwark. The money would appear to be coming for him now, too.
My god that was nerve wrecking, he didnt make that look easy…
Still, a result’s a result…
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Top drawer.
Cheers lads, he did make hard work of that but it still ticks a few boxes for ronaldo des mottes who came from a similar position in the nictory vote race to get 2nd, but was dropped 5lbs in the fred winter as a result..
- Total Posts 17716
I’m just annoyed I didn’t spot the obvious flaw in backing Celticello in the first at Ludlow. McCoy rode the winner, the well-backed favourite, for Evan Williams, and my selection was ‘assisted’ by Paul Moloney. It didn’t strike me until after the race that the latter rides predominantly for Williams, yet partnered a market rival today.
I don’t know about hindsight being a wonderful thing – seems a bit of a b*tch to me
Hopefully Berings Express (put up on the NH thread) will end my betting day on a brighter note.
Well, no place for Synonymy but a good day overall.
+32.15pts coming into today
9pts out
Summery Justice returns 28pts
Healys Bar returns 5pts24pts profit for the day
Running total = +56.15pts profit
Had a little blip monday and tuesday, but a good day today has almost put me back where I was after saturday.
Newbury 135
Astrodome 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1 (N/R)
Yetholm 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1
Wild Desert 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 40-1
Coeur De Fou 1pt @ 33-1 (another 1PT E/W with Astrodome N/R)
A competetive looking maiden, but have just just went for the ones who should go well at better prices, Astrodome had ground in his favour last time against Torpichen but that was his hurdling debut, he is on an easier track for a speedster, and if they go a bit slower, he has a crackign chance. Yetholm again has ground in his favour (unlike last time), but would want a stronger clip and could go well if he gets it. Wild Desert in terms of flat form is probably the best of all of these, he even beat helium in france, he has ground in his favour, a decent trainer and jockey, and the only negative against him is that he has a recent run on the all weather, well worth the 40-1. Coeur De Fou isnt without a chance at a price and with a decent trainer, on the balance of his NHF performances he is is overpriced Of the opposition Forget It has some decent form behind amore mio, but that was on soft ground and the fact remains that he has never won a race. The King and Henderson horses are mainly priced up on their trainers. Duke’s horse is interesting but am going to leave her out on this occasion and be hopeful she doesnt win. Ragamuffin Man may want more cut on a galloping track.
Newbury 210
Back Exit 1pt e/w 50-1
Quianshan Leader 1pt e/w @ 12-1
Both horses have suitable ground conditions but are priced up way behind the two market leaders and arent without a chance of a place.
Newbury 240
Hope Road 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 16-1
Used to follow this horse in 2 mile hurdles last season and thought that good ground was what he liked, isnt out of this and trainer is in cracking form of late so well worth a go at that price.
Newbury 350
Chesapeake 2pts @ 11-1
Alaghiraar 2pt @ 16-1
Dereks 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 40-1
Horses are well weighted with ground and trip in their favour, there are other nice ones in the field, but these look overpriced.
Doncaster 340
Wistow 4pts win @ 7-1 (betfred)
Young nicely bred bottom weight, should have ground in her favour, being supported. Should go well.
Donc 445
Heavenly Chorus 4pts win @ 8-1
Much as I like Well disguised and Fairyland in his race, Doncaster 2 miles can often play into the hands of a speedster and Hevaenly Chorus would look to be the right sort.
32pts out for the day, its either going to be one of them days or one of them days…
Newbury 315
By George 4pts win @ 7-1
1pt reverse forecast 4+8
By george is due to up 5lbs after today, has a 7lb claimer on board, and has ground in his favour has to be a bet. Very Cool the obvious danger as another who will be suited to the ground.
- Total Posts 17716
My only bet today has been on Ordre De Bataille, so hopefully Henry Daly can continue his decent run of form.
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Newbury 350
Chesapeake 2pts @ 11-1
Alaghiraar 2pt @ 16-1
Dereks 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 40-1
Horses are well weighted with ground and trip in their favour, there are other nice ones in the field, but these look overpriced.
Bulwark
Reassuring that somebody else has spotted
Dereks
. This one looks well weighted on last season’s form. He raced prominently to two out at Folkestone last time in heavy and looks well worth a tilt at a fancy price back on decent ground.
Rob
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