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Sandown 310
Native Clan 1pt win @ 16-1
Daves Dream 1pt win @ 16-1
Ihavedreamed 1pt win @ 28-1
Just covering off a few well priced up dangers to Seven is my number.
Native Clan is very dangerous as he should improve on this ground with a decent clip, and Arthur Moore has won this race before, and looks to have NC laid out for this. Daves Dream also goes in the ground and pulled his head of on soft ground last time should be better this time. I havedreamed has been put up 7lbs for his win the other week but with a strong pace on this ground he could still have every chance.
Sandown 205
Prince Rupert 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 25-1 (Sporting Bet)
Song Sung Blue 1pt e/w @ 28-1 (Skybet)
Was happy enough with their prices last night until seeing the prices on them this morning so can get a decent e/w on each. I do like Webbers other horse Edgebriar but just have a feeling that prince rupert may be something decent who is just passing through the ranks, he’s only 5yo and has already won 3 of his five starts including, with his two only defeats coming in a 2mile hurdle which was too short and a Soft ground bumper won by bensalem.
- Total Posts 17716
I thought David Pipe’s interview (this monring) on ATR made for interesting listening. He doesn’t think, even if he does win the Imperial Cup today, that Seven Is My Number will get in to any race at Cheltenham next week. Surely then, unless they plan to let Mr Thriller run in the Supreme/Triumph following defeat today, Tom Scuadmore’s mount is the Pipe horse to be on?
I have made no secret of the fact that I’m a fan of
Mr Thriller
and have backedhim accordingly.
I read pipe saying that on Teletext last night too. Mr Thiller would look better horse than Seven Is My Number on everything shown to date, but just think that Seven is my number ghas muchmore in his favour today. Indeed he may not get in anywhere at cheltenham, but who knows. I think he looks the one to beat today. Depending on how much cut there is, if the is enough cut Numide, Mr Thriller and Take The Breeze could go very well for a tricast. But it looked good-soft yesterday and Seven Is My Number should love that.
Soft ground horses have been going well so far today and this could be be good for Numide, Take The Breeze and Mr Thriller, it will be interesting to see how they go in the next.
Was a bit gutted with Seven Is My Number there though Ethan, never got a clear run when he needed it, which probably cost him the race, had 4pts on at 9-1 so would have been a far better result. Happy enough that I covered the winner though as would be absoultely fuming had I not.
+46.15 coming into today + 4pts on Seven is my number
13.5pts out
17 returned
3.5 pts profit
Running total = +49.65pts
Chepstow 410
4pt win Massinis Sunset @ 9/2
The ground at chepstow would appear to be genuinely good-sft so expect Massinis Sunset to go well on these conditions at what is a reasonable price in such a small field.
Newcastle 455
Well disguised 2pt win @16-1
Think she could possibly go well at newcastle today on trip and ground.
Uttoxeter 410
Accordeon 2pts win @ 7/4
Quiver Hill 3pts win @ 6-1
The ground at uttoxeter looks to be riding much quicker than the RP suggest and think both of these will go well later on.
Uttoxeter 520
Barton Alf 1pt e/w @ 20-1
Earlestown Boy 1pt e/w @ 33-1
Think both horses could go well on the quicker ground
Cheers ethan, bit gutted at Well disguised actually drifted out to 20s and 25s before off, but a win is a win.
Nevertheless
67.65 pts coming into today
11pts laid out
Well disguised 2pts win @ 16-1 returns 34pts
23pts profit for the day
Running total=
+90.65pts profit
(the highest Ive been at so far
)Back on track after cheltenham…
Taunton 350
Master Mahogany 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 33-1
Would think the ground at taunton would be good at the minute so this one may be capable of going well at a decent price. If the ground is good the many of the field will find the trip very sharp.
Royal Rationale 1pt win @ 5-1
(both prices with paddy power
This one of pipes should also like the ground, was progressive and should be capable of going well off top weight if he’s come on.
Kempton 340
The Hairy Lemon 1pt e/w @ 16-1
Karasakal 2pt win @ 10-1
Laredo Sound 1pt win @ 9-2
Same old, same old, should have trip and ground in their favour and could go well.
Running total +81.65pts profit
Kelso 510
2pt win Legion D’honneur 2pt win @ 9/2
1/2 pt e/w Beverley Beck @ 150-1
Legion D’honneur would look to have plenty in his favour and if they go a reasonable gallop then he’s got a chance. Beverley Beck on pedigree would look to have the sort of profile I would look for in a race like today, and where there is every chance she is a complete bum, I’ll have a little go anyway on her first try over hurdles.
Newbury 500
2pt win Light Yield @ 12-1
2pt win Red Admiral @ 10-1 (both prices sporting bet)
Cant believe Red Admiral is 10-1 with how the form of his last win is working out, with Fredo winning at the weekend and Nortonthorpe Lad placing in the county hurdle. Light yield is a horse who I have always liked who has the right sort of profile for todays conditions and could go well.
Newbury 240
Alaghiraar 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1
Buffalo Stampede 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1
On for a slow pace and one for a fast pace, both have a good chance of placing and could win if everything goes right.
Gowran park 205
Rajik 1pt win at 14-1
A field of no hopers and just like the look of this one.
Gowran 235
Kong 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1
In 2005 this was some horse on the flat (winning the lingfield derby trial), has ability and ground in his favour and massively overpriced on what he is capable of, from a yard that can turn around some of these semi decent ex flat horses.
Newbury 315
2pts win Very Cool @ 5/2 (Skybet)
2pt win Fantastic Arts @ 12-1 (Hills)
Think very cool looks like an improver on these conditions and isnt badly priced at 5/2, but at the same time Fantastic arts has some good form on similar conditions, and would look overpriced and well fancied.
+60.65pts running total
- Total Posts 17716
I can’t believe
Indian Blood
is drifting for the 5.00 at Newbury and 9/4 would now look to be a more than generous price.
At Kelso I’m hopeful that
Chief Dan George
(2.50) can build on a comfortable last-time-out success. The similarly named Camden George should ensure a decent pace having made all last time, with the added emphasis on stamina likely to play to the selection’s strengths.
At the same course,
Cast Iron Casey
(4.00) should take plenty of beating. He’s well regarded by his trainer, won well on his previous outing and should be able to cope with the drop in trip having run well behind Kalahari King two runs ago.
Taunton 230
1pt e/w 1pt win Always Cruising @ 12-1
1/2pt e/w 1/2pt win Tiny Dynamo @ 100-1
I do like Persian Storm in thsi however, he doesnt appear to have taken well to hurdling, and if the ground is genuinely gd-fm, then it shouldnt be right up his street. The odds on fav in this race isnt one to get the mortgage on, so will have a go on this pair, both on conditions that should suit.
Towcester 410
2pts win Tokahy @ 9/2
2pts win Flutter Bye @ 6-1
Both would look to have trip and ground up their street.
A few bigger bets today as the season is drawing to a close and there are a few good opportunities today.
Aintree 235
9 pts win Hebridean @ 10/3 (Paddy Power)
1pt Ski Sunday @ 11-1 (Sportingbet)
1pt e/w First Avenue @ 25-1 (Sportingbet)
Hebridean is the best in this field on all known form IMO and with him being hard to see him beaten, there will be few bets as good as him before the end of the season. Horse owes me nothing. Have also covered Ski Sunday as think he is a surprise package, and if something were to happen to Hebridean and Ski Sunday won I’d be a little gutted I didnt get on. With First Avenue, going by the Montjeu rule, I think that a fast pace around here will see massive improvement from him, and he could go well (better than his 25-1 quote anyway) if that were to happen.
Aintree 530
4pts win Eleazar @ 11-1 (Paddy Power)
Horse owes me nothing, really like him and if he drifts to a better price I’ll probably back him again, he drifted and started at a decent price last time, so not too worried about market confidence with him. He looks progressive and still think he’s well in at the weights.
Hernando Royal 1pt 12-1 (Paddy power)
Think he may be a better price in the morning but should love conditions (as long as it isnt closer to gd-fm) and should go well.
Aintree 420
2pts e/w 2pts win Valain @ 16-1 (Lads)
Obviously this is a 2mile chase but, this one was well fancied for the Grand Annual, but ground came up gd-sft and that was always going to stretch his stamina round chelters, but still ran a cracker, down 2lbs for his defeat, should love better ground and sharper track, and hard to see him not going well if not had too hard a race last time.
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