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Well done, Bulwark.
Cheers mate, thats me evens for the day with Last Draw still to go in the last at navan, good to get an accurate going description out of the racing post for a change, was worried on the way round with him leading on heavy though.
Last Draw should be a horseworth following over time, I’m not sure though if he will take to heavy today though, as he is by accordion and his last race wasnt definitely on heavy (despite the racing post having it down as heavy, was probably good-soft at worst). Have to back him at his price as think he is a horse with a future, whether he wins today or not.
-3.05pt coming into today
10pts out
14.2pts back
running total
+1.15pts profit
Huntington 325
1pt e/w 1pt win Time For Rupert @ 20-1 (Paddy Power)
1pt e/w 1pt win Pale Rider @ 33-1 (Paddy Power)
Both horses are stepping up from 2 miles and should be crying out for the extra distance, both have ground in their favour, both look to rated on ability shown over an inadequate trip and both look overpriced as a result. The race is 2m4f contest but both these are horses who have been raced at 2miles and wanting further, will be better judged after tomorrows race and look to be worth a bet.
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This looks like an absolute minefield, especially with Mahonia likely still capable of recapturing the form that saw him destroy Medermit at Exeter.
However, I’ve come down on the side of
King Ar Aghaidh
following a comfortable victory over Carrickboy last time. That form looks rock solid given the runner-up’s two subsequent victories and, whilst he didn’t look overly keen to go and win the race, David Arbuthnot’s charge could be overpriced at 16/1. Andrew Thornton in the saddle is a slight negative.
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Can’t argue with that, Bulwark. Super stuff.
Very well done Bulwark. I had a bit on both to place and a bit on Time For Rupert, which I liked the look of, to win.
Feels a bit iffy profiting from these suggestions without being able to contribute, but I’m miles out of my depth on here.
Cheers Lads,
Happy enough with that result. especially this close to cheltenham.
Had to pick one for my lucky 63 and went for pale rider
which is a bummer as had Sawpit Soilatire 3rd and Gainsborough Art Earlier win earlier on at 16s and need something to double it up, Time for Rupert would have been good.+1.15pts profit
6pts out 47 pts returned
41 pts profit
Running total = +42.15 pts Profit
Musselburgh 2.00
1pt e/w Bee Sting @ 50-1
Much as I like Red Moloney and hard to see him getting beaten, this one has everything in its favour today and could put in a decent run, yard havent been in terrible form of late over hurdles.
Sandown 245
2pt e/w 2pt win Shinnecock Bay @ 25-1
Porbably has more in its favour today than any other start to date, should go well, looks a huge price with a great chance of at least a place.
Sandown 320
2pt win Cornas @ 8-1
Admittedly this is a 2 mile chase rather than a hurdle but looked at this horse last night, has only recently went chasing from 2 mile hurdling and really fancied his chance, is very solid in the market this morning and am hopeful of a good run.
Sandown 355
Hernando Royal 2pts win @ 6-1
Major Millar 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 12-1
Although this race is 2m4f, think hernando royal will step up well on his first attempt, has ground in his favour. Major Millar looks a big danger.
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If the ground is anywhere near good at Musselburgh, which it generally is, I can’t see Red Moloney coming off the bridle. That said, the place return at 50/1 isn’t exactly small change!
Other than the 3.25 in which I quite like the chances of
Gauvain
, there are few likely betting races for me today. Sandown’s 1.40 is vaguely interesting in that
Insignia
finished (just) ahead of Captain Tidds when they met at Hereford recently and is now significantly better off at the weights. Today’s better ground should suit and why there’s such a discrepancy in the forecast betting is beyond me.
Agree with regards Insignia (another who could be worth a go in that race is Kilmeena Magic). Gauvain I think could be soft ground specialist, I think Cornas has everything right today and could go well.
Thought sandown was the better side of gd-sft last week and cant imagine it’s got much worse this week (hope not anyway).
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Insignia, despite finishing sixth, was very disappointing, but Gauvain has made the day so much more pleasurable. He was available at 16/1 in places early this morning and could be a good deal better than he’s showed even today.
A great run from Cornas too, Bulwark – I imagine the forecast was fairly impressive.
Adonis Hurdle
Hebridean 4pts win @ 2-1
Have had hebridean earmarked for this since he failed to get home against zaynar, Nicholls has made him his bet of the day, and I find it hard to see him getting beaten by anything. With the ground being good-soft instead of good, it may give helium a bit of a chance, especially as he will probably set out the pace, but still think hebridean should see it out well enough, round kempton to do him in the closing stages, provided ruby switches him off early.
Kempton 1.30
1pt e/w 1pt win Bormo @ 12-1
First noticed this horse when he was a one paced full of running second to numide last season, then backed him when he then ran a decent similar 2nd to Ashkazar next time. Stepping up for the first time on ground which should suit for the step up, could go well.
1 pt e/w Aimigayle @ 20-1 (Sporting Bet)
1pt win Eleazar @ 20-1
Aimigayle has done absolutely nothing wrong this year and looks ultra honest consistent, has won 4 of her last 8 starts and hasnt failed to place on any of those occasions, at 20-1 she has to be an e/w bet. Eleazar was very progressive and looked to be on a steep upward curve to better things prior to being off the track for a while now, has everything in his favour and would be fooolish IMO to leave him out of the equation at such a price as if he is back on track he could just be passing through this grade, and they could surely have found less competetive contests than this for a comeback.
Fairyhouse 240
Apt Son 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 10-1.
French Riviera 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 25-1
This is quite possibly the weakest looking grade 2 of the year so far and they look to have it priced up wrong. Fairyhouse has a long uphill straight and the ground is heavy so think they will have to a snails pace for this pair not to dominate the finish.
Chepstow 350
Mae Cigan 4pts win @ 13-2
Bred for soft, mainly campaigned on better ground on the flat, made a decent start to hurdling with 2 decent runs on good and G/S and looks to have everything in his favour and is well weighted to win this doing handstands.
your 2 selecti9ons in kepton 1.40 and you 2 selections at farryhouse ive done all 4!!
i done 2 x 2 £5 ew doubles cost me £40
we wil be rolling in it today …..u honestly think hairy lemon can beat soulard though buwak …..ya thoughts please?The market now appears to have adjusted regarding apt son in the 240 at fairyhouse and he is 6-1 which is nice to see.
Kempton 205
1 pt e/w 1pt win Alarazi @ 25-1.
2 pts win Dee Williams
On all form on Gd-sft Dee Williams looks the best of these, realistically, all ainama has done to date is outstay Hebridean on Soft ground, which isnt that hard, and henderson has a tendency to not have his fully fired up for these prep races, as he leaves a bit of work on.
Going by his flat form Alarazi has every right to be much shorter than this, 10f form in ireland on gd to yeilding gives should suit him nicely to kempton, trainer has a 39% wins to runs ratio with his hurdle runners over the last 5 years. So in summary good horse, good jockey, good trainer = 25-1? Not IMO.
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Good call in the 1.30, Bulwark.
which is a bummer as had Sawpit Soilatire 3rd and Gainsborough Art Earlier win earlier on at 16s and need something to double it up, Time for Rupert would have been good.
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