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Ground on the hurdle track at kempton is good, no doubt about it, Bear it in mind for the rest of the days selections mate.
Well not abad day all in all..
27.15 pts profit coming into today
25pts laid out
1 pt win Eleazar @ 20-1 returns 21pts
4pts win Hebriean @ 2-1 returns 12 pts
4pts win Mae Cigan @ 13-2 returns 30 pts
63 pts = 38pts profit for the day
plus 27.15 pts running total
Running Total = +65.15pts profit
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Hard to argue with figures like that, especially with Cheltenham just around the corner. You coming over for the Festival, Bulwark?
I believe it’s typical to ask why you didn’t do something after the event – I’m legendary at it. But you might as well go the whole hog and ask why you didn’t put EVERYTHING on Eleazar.
And double it with MAe Cigan.
And Hebridean.
Cheers folks tomorrow Ive went for
Rippling Ring 4 pts win @ 9/2 (Bet 365)
Oldrik 2pts win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power)
Matuhi 1pt e/w @ 20-1 (Paddy Power)
Explanations and further selections to follow in the morning
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I think Rippling Ring is going to have real problems in conceding 9lb to
Carrickboy
and, whilst I will concede that getting a handle on Oldrik is a bit of a b*gger, I can’t see him being good enough to trouble the likely favourite.
The horse I’m really interested in today is
Bushwacker
in Hereford’s opener. I hope he’s nearer the forecast 16/1 than the 9/1 currently available on Betfair – Calaficial and Tuskar Rock should ensure that – but conditions look ideal. He showed plenty of promise on both occasions he ran behind Red Harbour and simply failed to stay when pulled up behind Tarablaze in a much better race last time. An inexperienced jockey is a slight concern, but he has won a couple of races and claims a useful 7lbs.
Carrickboy definitely has the class to be up to winning this, but I picked him last time because he should have been most suited to soft conditions, he comes here rated on his best form which was on soft, he is probably still in form and is being brought here to capitalise, but recreating his best soft ground form in this sort of grade, on ground that will favour others more against petty fair opposition will be very hard IMO and I make him a false fav.
I’ve went for rippling ring as Nicholls has stated before that he may be a spring horse, however I didnt actually think he ran too badly in the greatwood, as I think Numide could be right up with the best 2 mile hurdlers on soft ground, and aigle d’or ran a cracker that day as he was expected to. It could be worth remembering how good Rippling Ring was this time last year on this sort of ground, and I think he’s worth the 9/2.
Oldrik is progressive and should love todays conditions, I think theres a fair chance he could well run above his current rating as think Hobbs may want to get him a better rating to ensure he gets into some of the decent handicaps at the festival, where he could go well. Much as I like Ihavedreamed and wouldnt write him off for this, I would like him at cheltenham and he is already high enough in the ratings, can’t really see why Moore would want to get him up any higher in the handicap (especially not to where he would be rated if he won this), and he may just be out as part of his prep for cheltenham, he does seem rather weak in the markets aswell. Matuhi I have went for just because I think Good-Soft at 2 miles probably what he likes best and at 20-1 he could improve on his recent form. Benfleet Boy could also emerge as a danger but will go against him on this occasion.
I agree on Bushwhacker (11/1 available with skybet), he was the one I was looking at last night in the race, at the same time though, Calaficial (at 9/4) looks a pretty decent favorite and I cant see any reason why he may run below form today. Another who would interest me in that race is Avon Court at 150-1 for a tiny e/w, as just think she has been badly campaigned to date, and may have improvement dropped in trip on better ground, hard to see her having enough to win but may get a place.
Plumpton 230
St Savarin 2pts win @ 7-1
Think he has everything in his favour today if the ground is genuinely soft and all goes well, made a mistake last time he had these conditions and was beaten out of sight as a result. Could well have the beating of novikov.
Plumpton 350
Bazart 2pts win @ 13/2
Should love soft ground and could well run above his rating on todays conditions, has been too bad lately on good-soft.
1pt double Bazart & St Savarin @ 7s and 13/2 (Stan James)
Both horses chances are dependant on soft ground, thus if the first wins, the chances of the second winning are very much increased and it is worth a small double on that basis.
Plumpton 320
Roughing It 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 18-1 (Betfred and Totesport)
A horse out of 2 mile novice hurdles going chasing for the first time, on the balance of his early 2mile NH Flat race and 2mile novice hurdle form he may have everything in his favour today and be well weighted for an easy win. Trainer not in incredible form of late but generally does best with his chasers and this one may just have been badly campaigned and today could well be his day if taking to the fences, as a young horse who has been fairly lightly campagned.
Plumpton 450
Pommander 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 18-1
Another who has been mainly campaigned in 2 mile hurdle races but is stepping up in trip for the second time, the last time she was beaten 21l in a slow paced event won by Thetotherone but he pulled 12l clear of the field, he is a good horse and the race has thrown up its share of subsequent winners, who would appear to have franked that it wasnt a bad race. Again trainer not in incredible form but fair chance this one os better than her rating and one could go well.
At the risk of sounding sycophantic, I’d just like to mention how much I enjoy reading this thread.
The way you fellas read races is most illuminating from the point of view of a pinsticker such as myself, and I’ll not be the only one.
The tipping itself is not half bad either
*touches wood in order not to jinx the selections*
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Bushwacker (2.30 Hereford) has been backed into 7/1 from 12/1 with Stan James, though 9/1 is still available in places (well supported nonetheless).
I’ve had a little bit each way on Bushwacker at10’s at my local independents.
Fingers crossed.
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12/1 into 4/1 and ultimately a disappointing performance.
My suspicion from the opener at hereford was that it was an exceptionally strong pace, with the presence of Mac Halen at the death. Well backed winner.
The going at Plumpton is in fact Good-soft (soft in places) which makes me slightly less confident with my double selections but it didnt seem to impede Laharna in the opener, however the run in doesnt look soft, which may swing a few results, and looked like it almost swung laharnas result.
Hereford 330
Kerriemuir Lass 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 33-1
Pop 2 pts win @ 4-1
After the first two races reckon both horses have everything in their favour and could go well.
Was lucky there with pop
Hereford 1630
Waltham Abbey 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 14-1
Boysterous 1/2pt e/w 1pt win @ 33-1
Thirdofthefourth 1/2pt e/w 1pt @ 33-1
Just think there could be a couple of decent prices go well in this, as there has been all day
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