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If my statement is so ridiculous then why is Paddy Power making sure they dont take any bets on Wichita Linesman for the World Hurdle. They are the shortest price and they are the ones who know exactly how JP’s runners are expected to perform.
JP McCmanus wants to unload a bundle on this horse. They strongly fancy that he can win the World hurdle at Cheltenham I am led to believe.
What would be the best way for a big time proffessional gambler to get himself a bigger price on the horse?
Get Jonjo to make some bizzare quote to the Racing Post, that makes it sound like they are scared of the opposition.
Sit back watch the price drift markedly and then
BANG – Watch this one tumble.
I would almost guarantee that is what is happening here.
I think this theory needs to be studied over a decent period and such a study should be conducted in either Trends, Systems or Daily Plays
First you need to define "bounce" as Robert99 pointed out at the beginning before this can take place
Charlie I run a laying service and have done so for 3 years, so have all my bets on an excel sheet. In the month of April and May my profits go through the roof. I will leave you to work out why that is.
I wouldn’t have said Fondness got beaten due to the bounce factor personally. It was off track for about 4 1/2 months before its first run back. I would be very wary of assuming a horse will bounce after such a short break (although it may well do). The longer they are off track the more likely they are to bounce, 12 months + is ideal followed with a quick 2nd run (within 10 or so days). I think I know why Fondness was beaten and I wouldnt put it down to the bounce factor.
Ref the guy who asked who I considered to be the UKs top tipping service over the last 5 years. I was talking about Isiris (im sure many services have beaten there figures, but I would say they were the most successful over a long period of time and Im pretty sure they would have more members than anyone else).
Ref- why do trainers run them quickly if bounce exists – Just because someone is a trainer does not make them intelligent. As many people will not believe in the bounce factor including very intelligent and respected journalists etc, many trainers will also not believe it exists.or truly understand it.
Hi
I note that Zozo in particular is getting confused about the bounce theory- it is about returning after a long layoff usually through injury ( there’s really no other reason) running well then failing reproduce the good run next time.It’s not about fit horses running again within a few days a long time money spinner.In it’s correct definition I think it does exist with a number of possible reasons- form overestimated-trainer misjudging the horse’s ability to recover- horse decides it’s not so good to racing again afterall. It should also be remembered with all the musclar talk horses are not humans they see no reason to push themselves to the nth degree no matter how hard the jockey tries (or doesn’t as the case may be)Hey cheeky, Im not getting confused. I know the ‘bounce theory’ inside out and I know how to correctly use it, which I do very effectively.
The most successful tipping service of the last 15 years is built around the bounce factor and the man from that organisation personally taught me about the bounce factor and how to apply it to your bets.Sorry Zoso, but I wouldn’t back him with someone else’s money for the AIG.
As with last year, connections have made it reasonably clear that the horse has the CH as his prime target, and whether he wins/loses or doesn’t even run this week would be of only secondary importance.
Imo, of course.I misread the thread title. I was thinking Champion Hurdle not the AIG (even though AIG clearly stated). Sublimity is the only horse that interests me for the Champion hurdle, price is currently way too big in my view.
Oh it does. Most people including racing media simply dont understand what the ‘bounce factor’ actually is.
Lay off from injury doesn’t come into it.
And you have no idea how something is proven
Oh I do and I make plenty of money from either laying bounce horses or having e/w bets around bounce horses.
The bounce factor is about muscles, simple as that. Phone a physio up and talk about the use of muscles if you dont want to take my word for it.lt is a medical fact and thats a fact.
Im sure because you have more posts than me and I am a newby to the forum and am not in the ‘racing circle’ that I clearly must have no worthwhile opinion on racing though.
Oh it does. Most people including racing media simply dont understand what the ‘bounce factor’ actually is.
Lay off from injury doesn’t come into it.
I voted No it’s a myth because this theory has so far remained unproven
If it exists – Prove it
Go for a real hard run this evening Charlie D and do push yourself(assuming you dont normally do phsyical excercise), then come back tomorrow and tell us how your legs are feeling. Try and do exactly the same run tomorrow evening and let us know if you found it harder.
This will prove the bounce factor to yourself in the best possible way.
If you dont believe in the bounce factor then you dont believe that horses have muscles in my opinion.
Zoso
That must rank as one of the daftest statements ever seen on a responsible forum, and is unlikely to engender any meaningful discussion
Do you seriously believe that racehorse trainers send horses from the sickbed straight to the races?
I’d accept Colin’s point about horses having hard races taking time to get over them, though that can happen with any horse, but to use the bounce factor as an excuse, (as someone on here recently did for VPU’s Tingle Creek defeat by Twist Magic) not only flies in the face of logic, but also puts a huge question mark against a trainers capabilities.
As Robert99 implied, if it cannot be predicted, how can anyone say with any degree of certainty that it exists at all, James Willoughby or anyone else?Of course racehorse trainers will have worked the horse before they appear on the track.
Have you ever heard of footballers talk about needing match fitness. They are fully fit but they lack match fitness, and they can only get that by playing a match.
Is it so ludicrous to suggest horses need ‘Race fitness’ also to get truly fit, regardless of what work they have been given by the trainer prior to racing.
It’s all about Sublimity for me. He could go off as short as 7/4 come the day. No other horse interests me in this race.
The best way for you to understand the bounce factor is this:
If you have not done any serious physical exercise for a year say, then you go and have a game of 6 a side football for 1 hour. Your legs wont let you down in that first game back.
The next day and for about a week later your legs will be aching quite severely (assuming you didnt do stretches and a proper warm up).
Try and play football a week after your 1st game, you legs will be struggling.
This is because your leg muscles have been overstretched in that game and take time to recover.
If you dont believe in the bounce factor then you dont believe that horses have muscles in my opinion. As any muscles (arms -weightlifting etc) will be aching after exercise they are not used to.
Mainly because it is almost impossible to define, as it will vary from horse to horse but nevertheless likely to be a valid reason/excuse for an underperformance.
ColinColin
Maybe it’s only impossible to define because it doesn’t exist?
And as a result is used by the Mordins of this world to ‘explain’ away disappointing runs when there is a more solid reason in the formbook – as there was with Well Chief, for instance?My opinion would be that the bounce factor is a medical fact and is proven. I believe if you asked any doctor, physio etc then they would ensure you that the bounce factor exists in any living being (man or animal) that has muscles.
I would combine Richards point about the shifty ground and the ground definitely was shifty, with the fact that Tamarinbleu has never been beaten when he has ran in January, the horses outstanding record at Ascot (3 wins from 4, only defeat coming after a race ending blunder) and Tom Scudamores outstanding record at Ascot (5 wins from 12 rides since 2007). Ascot suits front runners and the race was run to suit Pipes horse, all said it was a good performance and he jumped brilliantly.
Come the month of March and the Cheltenham festival I would certainly be siding with Twist Magic to beat Tamarinbleu and comfortably reverse the form.
Erm, I am a bit surprised Zoso you are justifying a losing tip?
I cant say I have seen this too many times on a forum (if at all).
Now, if you are justifying your means of deduction, then fine, you have made a number of points that may be true over time.
However on this occasion the animal you stated should be 4/6 was beaten fair and square. In your intial tip you failed to acknowledge the favourite was getting a hefty 4 year old’s allowance and this coupled with his experience over hurdles were compelling reasons to avoid Quizzene.
Also, as I previously stated, King’s fancied horses are usually backed heavily. This hrose wasn’t.
The bet you should have had was a place on the Exchanges which presumably paid about 4/5? However your e/w was a loser, however you want to dress it up.
I understand that most punters will not understand someone being happy with a bet that loses money.
As far as I am concerned as long as I am happy with my bet beforehand then I am happy with it afterwards wether it wins, loses or draws. If I believe my reasons to be sound for having the bet and the price in my view represented value then I have no complaints regardless of what happened in the race. I understand how you may not be able to understand this logic though.You said the horse wasn’t backed. This is untrue it was quite heavily punted. 9/2 was available with one of the small bookmakers early, with 4/1 being the general available price. It went off at 11/4 so it was certainly punted.
I didnt fail to acknowledge that the favourite was getting a hefty weight allowance. All 4yos get this weight allowance in these races and 9 times out of 10 I will be taking them on. I believe I stated I was against this horse as it was a 4yo taking on its elders for the first time (I assumed most people would realise and understand that a 4yo does recieve plenty of weight in these races).
You say I should have had a place bet only on the horse. Why tell me that after? Its a bit easy to see the results and then say "you should have backed place only" after it finished 2nd.
As I said I’m perfectly happy with the bet, if I wasn’t then I would not have placed it in the first place.
Tom Scudamore is possibly one of the best jockeys at riding the Ascot track as well.
In 2007 he won on 3 of his 8 rides at the track.
In 2008 he has won on 2 out of 4 rides at the track. (One of the rides where he was beaten was on the 66/1 outsider).Could the brilliance of Tom Scudamore at Ascot have helped the performance at all?
It certainly couldn’t have harmed it.
Has anyone realised that the horse is a monster of a January horse. He has never been beaten when racing in the month of January.
He has ran 3 times in his career in this month and has recorded 3 wins.
Combine these 3 facts:
He never loses in January
Tom Scudamore rides Ascot brilliantly
He has won 3 of his 4 races at Ascot (only defeat when serious blunder bought him to a virtual standstill)Could the above 3 factors be a possible explanation for the great performance which I feel it was.
