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Why isn’t Quizzene favourite?

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  • #6346
    Zoso
    Member
    • Total Posts 479

    Should be an odds on shot imo. I can’t see what could possibly beat it. 4/1 is insulting and it would be rude not to have an e/w bet at that price. I have it as being a 4/6 shot at worst.

    Anyone have any opinion on this race today?

    #136733
    Gazs Way De Solzen
    Member
    • Total Posts 2440

    Dont have a massive opinion apart from that it should be favourite, and 4/1 is a great price i think. The yard seem to think he will win today too.

    #136734
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    I haven’t had a look at the race TBH but the fact that it is a Class5 Mdn Hdl on Hvy means that I won’t be having a bet. Quizzene may have been decent enough on the Flat (incl on Hvy ground) but there are 3 reasons why I wouldn’t back him:

    1. He hasn’t been seen on the track for 464 days
    2. He has yet to jump a hurdle in public
    3. The race is worth less than £2K so if it comes down to a battle at the end, Robert Thornton won’t be beating him over the line.

    If I was to have a bet, I would be place-laying him. But I’m not.

    Good luck though.

    #136737
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5679

    The two in front of Quizzene in the betting, Souriceau and King Jack have respectable hurdle form in the bank already. King Jack is oriven on heavy ground, having won a bumper in heavy at Folkestone last year and was fourth in a competitve bumper at Newbury. Admittedly he was only 3rd at Towcester, but that’s a hard slog there.
    A rating of 80 puts Quizzene in with a live chance here and he certainly acts on heavy ground, but it’s his hurdles debut. If you were going on flat ratings then you would have to include 76-rated Noble Future, but then that one was only 12th at Leicester first time over hurdles.

    Rob

    #136738
    Zoso
    Member
    • Total Posts 479

    Souriceau is a 4yo taking on his elders (just 3 weeks ago he was a 3yo), I would be shocked if he could win this race taking on his elders for the first time. I may even place lay him for a minimal risk.

    King Jack won his bumper over 18f on heavy, he is going to need at least 2 1/2 m + to show his form. Add in the fact that R T Phillips (not my fav trainer at the best of times) is 0-6 with his hurdlers at Folkestone over the last 5 years. Should be seriously outpaced at the business end.

    I really cant make a case for anything else in the race. For me this is the best bet of 2008 so far, anyone will struggle to talk me out of it.

    Quizenne has won fresh before so the break is not a worry, Alan King can get them ready 1st time as well.
    Ability to jump a hurdle has to be taken on trust but I happen to trust the King stable to have the horse very well schooled for today.
    He has won on heavy ground.

    Easiest winner of the day imo and 4/1 is a gift. I have filled up on this one, super confident.

    #136743
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3214

    Zoso,

    Won’t even try to talk you out of it, but ….

    Cozzene isn’t a top NH sire – take out Sporazene, who wants good or fast ground and he doesn’t have another decent hurdler.

    Horses trained by Mark Johnston for three seasons don’t often prove successful when switched elsewhere.

    Personally, I thought Quizzene looked to have lost his enthusiasm in his final season on the flat.

    The four years olds have done pretty well already this month – Five Dream at Sandown and Hypnotic Vibes at Ludlow have beaten older horses from what looked tough handicap marks before the race.

    But I won’t be betting, so I hope you’re proved right.

    AP

    #136747
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    I managed to back Quizzene at nearly 5/1 on BF which is a good price imo. The bumper that KIng Jack won was only a weak one and his form over hurdles is only moderate. Souriceau looks a bit one paced and was beaten a long way last time out on soft/heavy ground.

    If Quizzene is fit and takes to hurdles then he should win. I don’t think he is a good thing and I wouldn’t rate him as an odds on chance either but 5/1 is value imo.

    Pete

    #136756
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Personally I never back horses first time over hurdles and would tend to favour lower class Flat horses with hurdle form in the book (a la Kaachit) over supposed classier Flat recruits.
    I don’t believe a horse will make a hurdler until I’ve seen it jump.
    But good luck anyway :D

    #136759
    Zoso
    Member
    • Total Posts 479

    Personally I never back horses first time over hurdles and would tend to favour lower class Flat horses with hurdle form in the book (a la Kaachit) over supposed classier Flat recruits.
    I don’t believe a horse will make a hurdler until I’ve seen it jump.
    But good luck anyway :D

    I never back a hurdler on his debut who has come from a bumper race although I have no problem whatsoever with backing a hurdler who has switched from the flat, especially if he is trained by someone like Alan King.

    Bet of the season at 4/1.

    #136775
    Zoso
    Member
    • Total Posts 479

    Only got 2nd but easily beat the rest of the field. Happy with my e/w at 4/1 on that bet even though it only got 2nd. Returned 90% of total stake and I would never side with the 4yos in these races so am pleased even though I lost a small ammount.

    #136776
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5679

    Zoso

    I agree that you made a sound bet, if you could get 4/1 about anything that starts at 11/4 then over time you have a decent edge.

    Rob

    #136813
    kentdougal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 277

    Hi
    Surely this is an absolutely classic case if the price looks to good to be true the chances are it is!

    #136815
    chateauonline
    Member
    • Total Posts 45

    Aftertiming here, but the fav was getting an awful lot of weight to make up for his inexperience, and the race he ran at Lingfield was again some potentially useful types.

    Also usually when flat horses with form over 1m 6f go hurdling they tend to need 2m 4f or further, and dont have the basic speed to win over 2m.

    Finally I find when the King yard "expect" one it is backed off the boards.

    #136831
    Black Sam Bellamy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 442

    Surely the horse needs further…even on soft ground ?

    #136848
    Zoso
    Member
    • Total Posts 479

    The trip was absolutely fine on testing ground at a stiff track today. He may well improve for a step up but he wasnt beaten due to the trip.

    The likliehood is he needed his first race for 468 days, obviously I could see how long he had been off track for before hand and that didnt put me off the bet as he had won fresh before and King can get them ready at the first time of asking but he may well have needed the race.

    But whichever way you look at it, take the favourite out of the race and Quizzene absolutely bolted up, he absolutely destroyed 13 rivals, so it wasnt a bad performance by any means.

    His jumping wasnt brilliant, he tended to get a bit high at the hurdles and may well turn into a really good chaser in time as he is a big animal.

    All 4yo’s will get a lot of weight from the elders in these races (its the 4yo weight allowance), a good percentage of them will be beaten. A lot of young horses run below form when taking on the elders for the first time, it simply spins some of them out and they get beat.

    I dont see how anyone is knocking the bet though, it was a cracking e/w bet at a brilliant price. I thought that before the race and I still think it now. Im 100% happy with the bet. 8)

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