Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Flatseasonlover, you are right to be puzzled!
Dosage theory seeks to predict/explain a horse’s stamina by reference to so-called chefs-de-race, influential stallions who pass down their stamina attributes to subsequent generations. Therefore, by identifying these stallions in a pedigree, and taking into account how far back they are, it is possible to predict, with reasonable accuracy, a horse’s optimum trip.
Sounds pretty good, eh?
Trouble is, the theory’s completely barmy, and here’s why:
1) You might well ask how a stallion is identified as having, for example, "dominant classicity". Well, the answer is quite simple: It’s because the theory’s inventor, Dr Steve Roman, says so. He alone decides what stallions shall be "chefs", and into which category or categories they shall placed.
2) The theory takes no notice of a mare’s input into a pedigree, except as a conduits to pass on the attributes of the chefs in her pedigree. This is straightforward baloney, ask any geneticist. This is why dosage totally failed to identify the stamina attributes of horses like Three Valleys, Mr Dinos or Damson, attributes which intelligent application of what might be termed "traditional pedigree analysis" were fairly easy to predict.
3) Very recent research has indicated that some influences regarding stamina may inherited via a horse’s mitochondrial DNA, ie that DNA which is only passed down the tail female line, Dosage theory takes no notice of this whatsoever.
4) Aside from mitochondrial DNA, omitting the mare’s input, apart from being genetic nonsense, ignores the exceptional prepotency of the greatest broodmares. As there have always been far more mares at stud than stallions, it’s reasonable to assume that the most prepotent mares will be more prepotent than the most influential of stallions.
5) On the stallion side, there is a tendency for the theory to assume too much consistency, forgetting that each generation is a completely new shake of the dice.
6) The theory ignores those genes, which geneticists have only recently begun to start to understand, which "switch on" or "switch off" certain heritable characteristics between generations, jumping a generation, if you like.
Sorry to bang on about this, but I find it frustrating that there are so many fanciful breeding theories about, and that so many people are taken in by them.<br>
(Edited by Venusian at 9:17 pm on Mar. 24, 2006)
If there is to be a campaign to get rid of he National Hunt chase on the grounds of safety, it might be an idea to check on the fatality rate over a longer period than the last two or three years.
I’ve no idea what the figures are, but it might be the case over the last 20 years that some other race (or races) has grislier stats. Cheltenham would look pretty silly, and would be under a lot of pressure from anti-racing people, if some race like the Sun Alliance chase or the County hurdle turned out to be worse.
But it was a terribly rough and tough race for juveniles when you used to get fields of 30 runners.
I’m not a great fan of the move to a four day Festival, but the introduction of the Fred Winter Hurdle is one plus that’s come out of it.
Thanks a lot, Lydia, you’ve put a lot of work and thought into your responses.
Much appreciated. keep up the good work.
This fellow will be hard pressed to get a mile, and they have wasted their money. They’re really gambling on him winning a couple of Group 1s to get their money back – not very likely.
Blasting a furlong in less than 10 seconds may well also leave a physical mark on him. I forecast a 4 race career.
Good luck with the filly, and the charges appear pretty reasonable to me. It’s hard to tell from the angle the photo’s taken from, but she doesn’t look too unathletic!
And as she appears to be a sprint type, at least you’ll know your fate by mid-season – you shouldn’t get all that expensive "she needs more time" stuff.
Some of the famous names outfits are little better than rip-offs.
"Can anyone explain why developing two-year olds should carry more ?"
The point Murtagh makes about maiden 2-y-o races is a valid one. As 2-y-os carrying a penalty in non-maiden races will often be carrying 9 stone or even more, why not have the standard weight in a maiden race at around 9 stone?
Just because a 2-y-o hasn’t won a race doesn’t mean that he can’t carry 9 stone in a maiden just as well as his winning, penalised stablemate in a novice stakes.
And, anyway, they’ll be carrying more than that at home.
(Edited by Venusian at 4:21 pm on Feb. 2, 2006)
What awful news.
I switched on the radio in my van when leaving a customer to hear Clare Balding being interviewed and saying things about how sad it was, and I just knew that it must be about Best Mate dying.
Even sadder when you think about the horse’s connections, such a grand bunch.
Yes, seems a great shame.
I suppose an auction race wouldn’t attract as much off course betting as a run-of-the-mill handicap, and of course it’s the betting industry, rather than sporting considerations, which rules the roost.
It’s not too late to reschedule the race to form part of the C4 coverage, but there’s very little chance of this happening, unfortunately.
Great news, what a great champion he is, now thankfully back running in the right sort of events.
Shame about CoGH, he must be fed up with seeing SW’s backside disappearing inot the distance for the umpteenth time. They’ll have to play him some videos of the UK sprinters to cheer him up.
The Silent Witness website has got the runners on it…
Currently co-favourite with Durandal, at 6/4.
Cape Of Good Hope is a tasty price, around 27/1
"Whenever you pay for admission to the races, you are in effect paying for the right to bet with bookies."
Zorro is quite correct, and it really is that simple.
Re Conall’s post, regarding Singapore, I was there for 6 months during 1963/64 (I was in the reading room at the Singapore Swimming Club when I heard that Kennedy had been assassinated), when admission to the racecourse at Bukit Timah was 3 dollars (about 7/- or 35 p, when UK admission charges were around a pound, or a little more). The facilities and atmosphere were first class.
As for the "class linked enclosures" in the UK, quite honestly, that’s out of date.
Generally, there’s a maximum of 3 different prices, with many courses offering just 2 enclosures – Members and Tatts – my local course Lingfield being an example. Of the major spectator sports in this country, I don’t knoiw of many that routinely offer only one or two prices for admission. In football, for example, you’ve got at least 3 – annual members, home supporters and away supporters.
MArket Rasen is not all that far from Newmarket – many casual racegoers might have found the competitive card at MR more to their liking.
Indeed, you’d think people would look at a thread’s title before posting, wouldn’t you?
There were probably more people at Market Rasen yesterday than at Newmarket. Charging Ascot prices and with Newmarket members having to pay to get in, there was always a chance that it would be a flop. I agree Sandown would have been a better choice of venue.
