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Having given this a bit of thought, it does have potential but rather than spread the bets around it is better to concentrate on one or two games and up the stakes a little. Another thing is that there is not much to look at in the first few weeks of the season as far as form goes so trying to find a few matches that don’t like like being a draw won’t have much in the way of statistics to help us.
Looking at it from a very simplistic point of view, how confident are you that you could pick one match from the Premiership that won’t end in a draw? If there is a goal and you are not confident then you always have the option of cutting out, for example with Palace going ahead yesterday the odds on the draw got shorter as the game went on. If you were not confident of the bet at that point then you could do cut out by backing the draw at the odds available, even for a reduced loss.
With regards to the others…
Millwall v Blackburn lay and cut £5 at 3.45 – liability is £17.25
Orient v Bradford lay and cut £5 at 3.80 – liability is £19.00
Rotherham v Bristol City lay and cut £5 at 4.2 – liability is £21.00What I noticed was that because these games were in the lower leagues there were no real prices once the first goal was scored. For example in the Rotherham game, the first goal was scored after 2 minutes and yet at half time the best odds for the draw were 4.0 whereas you could lay the draw at 60.0.
All 3 ended up a non-draws so another £15 would have been added to the returns if there were no decent prices to back the draw and cut out of the bet.
Man Utd v Aston Villa lay and leave £10 at 4.9 – liability is £49.00
C.Palace v Chelsea lay and leave £10 at 4.8 – liability is £48.00
QPR v Blackpool lay and leave £10 at 3.95 – liability is £39.50
Bournemouth v Birmingham lay and leave £10 at 3.45 – liability is £34.50
Notts County v Colchester lay and leave £10 at 3.65 – liability is £36.50
Southend v Torquay lay and leave £10 at 3.70 – liability is £37.00Man Utd win 4-1 : Bank the tenner !
Palace win 1-0
: Bank the tenner !
QPR draw 1-1 : Pay out £39.50
Birmingham win 4-2 : Bank the tenner
Notts County win 2-0 : Bank the tenner
Southend win 1-0 : Bank the tennerFrom these win £50 (less commission) and payout £39.50
This has got me scratching my head…
Rotherham scored after 2 minutes and the market on Betfair was
2.32 to back the draw
30.0 to lay the drawHowever, the bids on 0-0 remained !! I watched it until the game had gone 19 minutes and still you could lay the 0-0 draw at 18½/1. This is weird, I would have thought that Betfair software would have scrubbed those bids ??
By "lay and cut" I mean that as soon as there is a goal, you back the stake needed to cover your liability.
For example;
Millwall v Blackburn lay and cut £5 at 3.45 – liability is £17.25
If Millwall score and the draw odds go to 5 for the backer, then cover the bet with £3.45 (x 5 = £17.25).Then, no matter what happens you make £1.65 as you have both laid and backed the draw.
I think it’s the same as you suggested in your previous posts "green up" ? I am just using different terminology.
For "lay and leave" I mean that no matter what happens just let the bet ride so you either earn the stake or pay the liability.
Not long until kick off.
Cheers
RichieTrue, but safer.
I have had a look at tomorrow’s Premiership games and noted the following…
Man Utd at home to Villa in the league has produced 1 score draw in the last 15 seasons.
The other fixtures don’t show much. Looking at stats for games this season…
Villa have played 16 against top half opposition and drawn just once.
Palace have played 16 against top half opposition and drawn just once.Teams playing bottom half opposition that have scored an average 2 or more goals…
Man Utd 2.31
Chelsea 2.06This suggests than the chances of a draw in these two games are very low…
Man Utd v Aston Villa – draw can currently be laid at 4.9
C.Palace v Chelsea – draw can currently be laid at 4.8For the other leagues, I have just looked at this season’s stats…
Championship
QPR have played 21 against bottom half opposition and drawn just 3 times.
Bournemouth have played 20 against bottom half opposition and drawn just 3 times.
Teams playing bottom half opposition that have scored an average 2 or more goals…
Derby 2.29
Teams playing top half opposition that have conceded an average 2 or more goals…
Millwall 2.33League One
Notts County have played 18 against bottom half opposition and drawn just 2 times.
Teams playing bottom half opposition that have scored an average 2 or more goals…
Orient 2.14
Rotherham 2.13League Two
Torquay have played 21 against top half opposition and drawn just 3 times.Using the above draw data to lay the draw and leave it for the full game and using the goals scored/conceded data to lay the draw and then cut out after the first goal. Going Billy Big-Balls on the stakes, £10 for "lay and leave" bets and £5 for £lay and cut" bets means we have the following bets…
Man Utd v Aston Villa lay and leave £10 at 4.9 – liability is £49.00
C.Palace v Chelsea lay and leave £10 at 4.8 – liability is £48.00
QPR v Blackpool lay and leave £10 at 3.95 – liability is £39.50
Bournemouth v Birmingham lay and leave £10 at 3.45 – liability is £34.50
Notts County v Colchester lay and leave £10 at 3.65 – liability is £36.50
Southend v Torquay lay and leave £10 at 3.70 – liability is £37.00Millwall v Blackburn lay and cut £5 at 3.45 – liability is £17.25
Orient v Bradford lay and cut £5 at 3.80 – liability is £19.00
Rotherham v Bristol City lay and cut £5 at 4.2 – liability is £21.00Total liability £301.75
Potential winnings £75 (less commission)Let the games begin !!
I think you may have the basics of something that might prove to be profitable, perhaps rather than laying the draw randomly we can attach some "rules"?
Top 6 teams playing at home to bottom 6 sides etc.
I failed miserably on keeping an eye on the prices. All 3 ended up as "non draws" so I suppose that means taking a £17.70 profit less commission.
West Ham were dire and Allardyce afterwards criticised the fans !! Hull at least played football and had they not been reduced to 10 so early I am sure they would have given West Ham a lesson in how to play.
Tonight I am not a Happy Hammer.
You mentioned this method previously in another thread and I have been looking at this over the last week or so. I think you have a good idea here, more of a steady investment scenario than a "win big" scheme.
One thing I noted was that sometimes the draw didn’t move that much and maybe there are some instances where this strategy is better, or "safer".
For example, backing a top 4 team away to a team in the lower half of the table, is a lot riskier than the top 4 team playing at home. Sure, the odds will be higher and so too the liability but it is likely to be much safer – theoretically. I was busy on my new website tonight but will monitor this for one or two of tomorrow night’s games.
West Ham v Hull
This should produce goals as both teams are needing the win, but if a goal is scored will the draw odds move that much ? Currently the draw can be laid at 3.35Liverpool v Sunderland
Obviously the draw is much less likely but there may be more value here. Currently the draw can be laid at 9.4 but if Liverpool score first then the draw odds will rocket upwards far further than with the previous game mentioned.Partick v Celtic
Perhaps the best opportunity of these 3 fixtures as currently the draw can be laid at 5.4. Despite Partick having drawn 7 of their 15 home games so far, Celtic have only drawn 1 of 15.I will be watching the West Ha game so may not get the most immediate price change on the other games, but if I suggest a theoretical lay to lose around £30 on the draw on each of the games, then if my maths is correct, this will mean the following bets…
West Ham draw laid at 3.35 to lose £30 means that a bet of £8.95 needs to be laid. I will round this up to £9 so the liability will be £30.15
Liverpool draw laid at 9.4 to lose £30 means that a bet of £3.19 needs to be laid. I will round this up to £3.20 so the liability will be £30.08
Celtic draw laid at 5.4 to lose £30 means that a bet of £5.55 needs to be laid. I will round this down to £5.50 so the liability will be £29.70.
Let the games begin!!
I fancy REBELLIOUS GUEST at the price his last run looked good,the question mark is he is coming back to group company but this time on what I believe is his preferred terms
other than that Grandeur
REBELLIOUS GUEST is in the 5 day declarations for the Lincoln this coming Saturday and fits the trend analysis that I have done.
Currently best priced at 20/1.
Yep, Grandeur is gonna have to go the long way round to win it seems. I think this boosts the chances of yet another top rated horse getting beat.
My fancy Farraaj is drawn in stall 9 so also has an uphill struggle from there. He won last year coming out of stall 5 and his previous run on the course was in am Listed race, which he won coming out of stall 10 of 10 runners.
A lot depends on how Grandeur copes with the first ½ mile, if he can get into a good position then it will be hard to see him getting beaten.
An outsider being backed is Rebellious Gust 33/1 > 16/1.
Good luck.
…I would rather Arsenal win the league then have to see his smug smile lifting the trophy at the end of the season.
Don’t let it get to you, it could be worse, you could be a West Ham supporter like me !!
It’s not a trick question is it ?
E.g. an Irish horse already raced in Ireland and who’s first race in the UK was the Coventry.
Did Dante race before he won the Coventry?
You’re jumping the gun, Rich. That answer’s wrong.
I’ve done a bit of checking and the two horses that I gave did both win the Coventry on debut – perhaps there are other horses that have done theis as well?
"
Persimmon was one of the leading British two-year-old of 1895, winning two of his three races. He made his debut at Royal Ascot on 18 June, where he started 2/1 favourite for the Coventry Stakes. Ridden by John Watts he led from the start and won "in great style" by three lengths from Meli Melo
…"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persimmon_%28horse%29The next one is easy to remember mainly because of the quote regarding Lester Piggott…
"Chief Singer never ran in a maiden race and was unusual in that his entire career was spent in Group Race company. On his first racecourse appearance he was sent to Royal Ascot in June where he ran in the six furlong Coventry Stakes. Shortly before the race, Sheather had matched the colt against a successful six-year-old handicapper named Teamwork in a trial gallop, and decided to send the colt straight to Ascot after he easily defeated[3] his older rival despite meeting him at two stones worse than weight-for-age.[1] In the Coventry Stakes, Chief Singer started a 20/1 outsider in a field of fourteen runners. Before the race Lester Piggott asked Cochrane how he expected to win on "that big black oaf". Cochrane responded "take a good look at his face, because all you’re going to see at the end is his arse".[3] Chief Singer started poorly and was left behind by his opponents but made up the lost ground, took the lead entering the final furlong, and drew away to win by four lengths…"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_SingerPlease don’t get me wrong, I’m not whinging here, just trying to add a bit more info about the subject. I am not aware of any other debutants so I await the answer with interest.
Thought that I got it a bit too quickly. This came up in a quiz a few years ago, darn my memory.
Thinking cap back on.
I believe they are Persimmon in 1895 and Chief Singer in 1983.
Provided they are correct, my question is…
What was the name of the jockey who punched the chairman of the BHB ?
Firebird Flyer was my original pick and I would really liked to have seen him run.
Alpha Victor (2nd at 33/1) was the best placed of the 5 that made my trends listing. I had a small each way on Red Rocco – one day I will pick the right one off my listing !!
http://theanalyst.siterubix.com/saturdays-big-races/2014-midlands-grand-national
The Winter Derby is the race I will be analysing for next Saturday.
: Bank the tenner !
