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I’ve done ok with this before so will see if I can turn a profit.
The idea is to lay the draw and then back it back after a goal to green up, the odds don’t always go the way you want so luck will play it’s part.I’m trying to get matched for the Southend game at the moment.
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Southend v Oxford Utd
3.45 – backers odds
£4.08 – backers stake
£10.00 – my liabilityGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Southend have scored and the draw odds are now 4.7, I could have greened up for £1.02 but instead I’m going to see it out a bit longer as Southend look in control.
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Get in penalty to Southend if they score I’ll green up.
Goal………..
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So if Southend win or draw I get £2.83
If Oxford win I get £4.33
minus commissionGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
After commission we have a running total of +£2.69
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in running
Chikhura Sachkhere v FC Sioni Bolnisi – Match Odds
odds 3.3
backers stake £4.35
my liability £10.00Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
The good news is we have had a goal but the bad news is the wrong team scored it.
I can either hold out and hope the better side don’t level or more likely take a small profit when/if it arises.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
cashed out
FC Sioni Bolnisi
1.6
£8.97
£5.38Chikhura Sachkhere
9.4
£0.35
£2.94Chikhura Sachkhere
9.8
£1.02
£8.98Chikhura Sachkhere
10
£0.10
£0.90Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
if Chikhura Sachkhere win I get 50p
if FC Sioni Bolnisi win or the match is a draw I get 44p
minus comissionGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
overall running total
Arsenal v Swansea
odds – 4.4
backers stake – £2.94
my liability – £10.00Think there will be plenty of goals here and with the backers stake being on the lower scale I will play it out into the 2nd half before greening up(given the chance) unless it’s 3-0 or something along those lines.
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cashed out
8.4
£1.58
£11.69if Arsenal or Swansea win returns £1.36
if a draw returns £1.69
minus commissionGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
You mentioned this method previously in another thread and I have been looking at this over the last week or so. I think you have a good idea here, more of a steady investment scenario than a "win big" scheme.
One thing I noted was that sometimes the draw didn’t move that much and maybe there are some instances where this strategy is better, or "safer".
For example, backing a top 4 team away to a team in the lower half of the table, is a lot riskier than the top 4 team playing at home. Sure, the odds will be higher and so too the liability but it is likely to be much safer – theoretically. I was busy on my new website tonight but will monitor this for one or two of tomorrow night’s games.
West Ham v Hull
This should produce goals as both teams are needing the win, but if a goal is scored will the draw odds move that much ? Currently the draw can be laid at 3.35Liverpool v Sunderland
Obviously the draw is much less likely but there may be more value here. Currently the draw can be laid at 9.4 but if Liverpool score first then the draw odds will rocket upwards far further than with the previous game mentioned.Partick v Celtic
Perhaps the best opportunity of these 3 fixtures as currently the draw can be laid at 5.4. Despite Partick having drawn 7 of their 15 home games so far, Celtic have only drawn 1 of 15.I will be watching the West Ha game so may not get the most immediate price change on the other games, but if I suggest a theoretical lay to lose around £30 on the draw on each of the games, then if my maths is correct, this will mean the following bets…
West Ham draw laid at 3.35 to lose £30 means that a bet of £8.95 needs to be laid. I will round this up to £9 so the liability will be £30.15
Liverpool draw laid at 9.4 to lose £30 means that a bet of £3.19 needs to be laid. I will round this up to £3.20 so the liability will be £30.08
Celtic draw laid at 5.4 to lose £30 means that a bet of £5.55 needs to be laid. I will round this down to £5.50 so the liability will be £29.70.
Let the games begin!!
Thanks for that rich, food for thought regarding movements after a goal. I might play the L’pool game tonight if it’s level at half time.
I want the home side to score 1st here.
East Bengal v Mumbai
odds – 3.8
backers stake – £3.57
my liability – £10.00Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
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