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Yeah you could be right there rich, especially at this stage of the season where points needed should open games up although some of those away teams may wish to park the bus.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
The only problem with ‘top 6/bottom 6’ could be the odds might be higher meaning less profit or higher liability?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
True, but safer.
I have had a look at tomorrow’s Premiership games and noted the following…
Man Utd at home to Villa in the league has produced 1 score draw in the last 15 seasons.
The other fixtures don’t show much. Looking at stats for games this season…
Villa have played 16 against top half opposition and drawn just once.
Palace have played 16 against top half opposition and drawn just once.Teams playing bottom half opposition that have scored an average 2 or more goals…
Man Utd 2.31
Chelsea 2.06This suggests than the chances of a draw in these two games are very low…
Man Utd v Aston Villa – draw can currently be laid at 4.9
C.Palace v Chelsea – draw can currently be laid at 4.8For the other leagues, I have just looked at this season’s stats…
Championship
QPR have played 21 against bottom half opposition and drawn just 3 times.
Bournemouth have played 20 against bottom half opposition and drawn just 3 times.
Teams playing bottom half opposition that have scored an average 2 or more goals…
Derby 2.29
Teams playing top half opposition that have conceded an average 2 or more goals…
Millwall 2.33League One
Notts County have played 18 against bottom half opposition and drawn just 2 times.
Teams playing bottom half opposition that have scored an average 2 or more goals…
Orient 2.14
Rotherham 2.13League Two
Torquay have played 21 against top half opposition and drawn just 3 times.Using the above draw data to lay the draw and leave it for the full game and using the goals scored/conceded data to lay the draw and then cut out after the first goal. Going Billy Big-Balls on the stakes, £10 for "lay and leave" bets and £5 for £lay and cut" bets means we have the following bets…
Man Utd v Aston Villa lay and leave £10 at 4.9 – liability is £49.00
C.Palace v Chelsea lay and leave £10 at 4.8 – liability is £48.00
QPR v Blackpool lay and leave £10 at 3.95 – liability is £39.50
Bournemouth v Birmingham lay and leave £10 at 3.45 – liability is £34.50
Notts County v Colchester lay and leave £10 at 3.65 – liability is £36.50
Southend v Torquay lay and leave £10 at 3.70 – liability is £37.00Millwall v Blackburn lay and cut £5 at 3.45 – liability is £17.25
Orient v Bradford lay and cut £5 at 3.80 – liability is £19.00
Rotherham v Bristol City lay and cut £5 at 4.2 – liability is £21.00Total liability £301.75
Potential winnings £75 (less commission)Let the games begin !!
Hi trendy.
How do you set up ‘lay and cut’?
I’m guessing it’s something you have to pay for? But looks necessary for lots of games and being able to have a life other than waiting around for a goal.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
By "lay and cut" I mean that as soon as there is a goal, you back the stake needed to cover your liability.
For example;
Millwall v Blackburn lay and cut £5 at 3.45 – liability is £17.25
If Millwall score and the draw odds go to 5 for the backer, then cover the bet with £3.45 (x 5 = £17.25).Then, no matter what happens you make £1.65 as you have both laid and backed the draw.
I think it’s the same as you suggested in your previous posts "green up" ? I am just using different terminology.
For "lay and leave" I mean that no matter what happens just let the bet ride so you either earn the stake or pay the liability.
Not long until kick off.
Cheers
RichieThis has got me scratching my head…
Rotherham scored after 2 minutes and the market on Betfair was
2.32 to back the draw
30.0 to lay the drawHowever, the bids on 0-0 remained !! I watched it until the game had gone 19 minutes and still you could lay the 0-0 draw at 18½/1. This is weird, I would have thought that Betfair software would have scrubbed those bids ??
Man Utd v Aston Villa lay and leave £10 at 4.9 – liability is £49.00
C.Palace v Chelsea lay and leave £10 at 4.8 – liability is £48.00
QPR v Blackpool lay and leave £10 at 3.95 – liability is £39.50
Bournemouth v Birmingham lay and leave £10 at 3.45 – liability is £34.50
Notts County v Colchester lay and leave £10 at 3.65 – liability is £36.50
Southend v Torquay lay and leave £10 at 3.70 – liability is £37.00Man Utd win 4-1 : Bank the tenner !
Palace win 1-0 : Bank the tenner !
QPR draw 1-1 : Pay out £39.50
Birmingham win 4-2 : Bank the tenner
Notts County win 2-0 : Bank the tenner
Southend win 1-0 : Bank the tennerFrom these win £50 (less commission) and payout £39.50
With regards to the others…
Millwall v Blackburn lay and cut £5 at 3.45 – liability is £17.25
Orient v Bradford lay and cut £5 at 3.80 – liability is £19.00
Rotherham v Bristol City lay and cut £5 at 4.2 – liability is £21.00What I noticed was that because these games were in the lower leagues there were no real prices once the first goal was scored. For example in the Rotherham game, the first goal was scored after 2 minutes and yet at half time the best odds for the draw were 4.0 whereas you could lay the draw at 60.0.
All 3 ended up a non-draws so another £15 would have been added to the returns if there were no decent prices to back the draw and cut out of the bet.
Thanks for the terminology trendy.
There was me thinking you had some kind of program set up to lay for you after a goal. I suppose once a lay has been place one could always leave/keep a back price open.
I hadn’t noticed that before about the lower league odds I suppose with more games being played they don’t get much attention.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Having given this a bit of thought, it does have potential but rather than spread the bets around it is better to concentrate on one or two games and up the stakes a little. Another thing is that there is not much to look at in the first few weeks of the season as far as form goes so trying to find a few matches that don’t like like being a draw won’t have much in the way of statistics to help us.
Looking at it from a very simplistic point of view, how confident are you that you could pick one match from the Premiership that won’t end in a draw? If there is a goal and you are not confident then you always have the option of cutting out, for example with Palace going ahead yesterday the odds on the draw got shorter as the game went on. If you were not confident of the bet at that point then you could do cut out by backing the draw at the odds available, even for a reduced loss.
: Bank the tenner !
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