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The Festival may be over but fear not as tomorrow its Midlands National Day!
I’m a fan of Harry Topper but think he has it all to do off top weight. So I’ve gone for the Old boy West End Rocker, the King Stable are starting to hit a bit of form and surely they wouldn’t bother running him at 12 if he wasn’t showing something at home?
14/1 seems good value to me so I’ve backed him Each Way.
I hope that Harry Topper can show his class tomorrow. We used to always go to the Midlands National till they pushed the admittance price sky high; used to be a great day when Sir Stan was still around.
I am equally a huge fan of Harry Topper, he has been very profitable for me and I’ve touted him up in a few races, but I have to say on this occasion I’m in agreement with Danny. It is asking a great deal of HT to give the best part of 2 stones to most of these. I’m not saying he won’t manage to lump the weight and at 8/1 I might put a saver on him and also back something which has a better chance at the weights.
That being the case, I think Pete The Feat is on a very nice weight of 10st 6lbs, having been used to carrying around 11st 8lbs or thereabouts of late. I know weight is relative to what you are running against, but nonetheless the horse will feel like the shackles have been taken off. He won well at Fontwell in December, but I particularly liked his next run in a better race at Haydock at the end of December where he battled all the way to the line and was only beaten just over a length by Across The Bay.
He ran like something was amiss the next time and was pulled up in a very decent race at Sandown in February but looked back to form on his last run on 1st March at Newbury where he unseated his rider. I’ve watched the race a couple of times and he traveled well and jumped well and at the 12th, he still jumped it cleanly but knuckled slightly on landing and Noel Fehily parted company. It wasn’t that bad a mistake by the horse who is a decent jumper (fallen twice in 46 races) and he was traveling strongly at the time.
Apart from HT he is the only course winner in the field, so at 20/1 I think he is very decent value. Courtesy of good old Lord Windermere I can throw a few quid at him and HT without it hurting too much. I might even do the forecast, or is that just getting greedy.
Question; of the horses running out of the handicap Loch Ba and Firebird Flyer [NR] have 7lb claimers on board that can do 9.7. Will they carry 9.7 or will they still have to carry 10.0? Red Roccos jockey won’t be able to do less than 9.13.
Question; of the horses running out of the handicap Loch Ba and Firebird Flyer [NR] have 7lb claimers on board that can do 9.7. Will they carry 9.7 or will they still have to carry 10.0? Red Roccos jockey won’t be able to do less than 9.13.
They will still be able to use their claim, so if the horses handicap weights it at 9st 7lbs, but the minimum racing weight is 10st, the jockey will still be able to use his claim. If he has a 7lb claim, the horse will carry 9st 7lbs.
Thanks Big G. Loch Ba’s jockey can do 9.7 [where can I see if he has, in fact get down to that weight?]. Mind you, afer the disaster that was Cheltenham I’m not having a bet [although Loch Ba also has on the first time visor; just watch that work when I decide to ignore it]. Think I’d also go for Emperors Choice and Fill the Power, although can’t believe there are still 16+ runners [can’t last, that, surely?]
Thanks Big G. Loch Ba’s jockey can do 9.7 [where can I see if he has, in fact get down to that weight?]. Mind you, afer the disaster that was Cheltenham I’m not having a bet [although Loch Ba also has on the first time visor; just watch that work when I decide to ignore it]. Think I’d also go for Emperors Choice and Fill the Power, although can’t believe there are still 16+ runners [can’t last, that, surely?]
You are welcome Moe. If you go to the race field on the Racing Post, click on the jockey, it gives you some information on his strike rate and also his lowest riding weight in the last 12 months. In Mr H A A Bannister’s case (Loch Ba’s jockey), his lowest carrying weight was 9st 7lbs, so unless he has put on weight recently he should be able to do 9st 7lbs.
Only one withdrawn so far, Firebird Flyer, so 17 still stand their ground. I hope they do as I’ve got Pete The Feat at 28/1 and that 4th place could be important.
I was also having a bad festival till the final day, but had a couple to turn things massively around, most particularly Lord Windermere at 33s, so I can afford a bit on the Midlands.
I am most impressed with the recent online bookie I signed up for during the Festival, Racebets. I only signed up as they were offering to match you first bet up to £50 so I had £25 ew on Rajdhani Express at 25/1 in the Ryanair (3rd). I also had my GC win with them getting 33/1, I had £20 ew so it changed my fortunes a good deal.
I noticed that they also have a race each day that they match all the best prices offered by the main bookmakers, between noon and 1pm. The race today is the Midlands National. My fancy, as you know, is Pete The Feat and they had him at 20/1. Only Stan James was offering 28/1 and sure enough just after noon they price matched all horses and he was 28/1. I’ve lumped on that and also, as I mentioned in my other post, I had a saver on Harry Topper, (which they matched Betvictor at 8/1) in case he manages to give the weight to others.
I hope the 3 you picked don’t do the tricast, it would be head in the oven time
Fill the Power; Emperors Choice; Bradley and Loch Ba for me. Although I’d love to see Harry win for Kim Bailey and old times sake. Just glad that Uttoxeter [my local track] have managed to finally not get a meeting cancelled even though they do charge far too much for their racedays.
West End Rocker would be my main fancy for this, as they surely wouldn’t be putting him through all this again, if they didn;t think he still had it in him. Happy to take chance at 14’s.
Also like the look of Loch Ba, and Bradley each way. Loch Ba is a horse a I follow closely, and though there’s question marks around the distance, and being off the back of a couple of stern tests, I think he’s shown me enough to suggest this trip wouldn’t be beyond him. Bradley is a horse who’s done me a few favours in the past, and was a long term fancy of mine for last years National, but after running with promise in a number of races, as I’ve said before on here, there just seemed to be a physical issue niggling him. He looked in better shape last time, and can see him filling a place here at the very least. Think this could be an ideal stepping stone for The Scottish National, should they take that route.
I’m hoping for a big run for Pete The Feat, as backed him for Aintree, and another non complete would surely see that plan scuppered. As G said, he came down at Newbury last time, but he was lobbing away nicely, and to be honest had he not unshipped, he’d have probably went very close.
If Harry Topper wins it’d be a great weight carrying performance, and if none of mine went close, I’d love to see him do it.
GL
I’m getting worried now……Noel Fehily has won the first three races at Uttoxeter, what’s the chances of him making a four timer on Pete The Feat, it doesn’t happen often.
I’m starting to get the feeling that I’ve maybe missed the boat. I hope I’m just being overly pessimistic
I picked
Sun Cloud
last time out and I thought he was moving very promisingly when he fell. He’s worth another go today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Firebird Flyer was my original pick and I would really liked to have seen him run.
Alpha Victor (2nd at 33/1) was the best placed of the 5 that made my trends listing. I had a small each way on Red Rocco – one day I will pick the right one off my listing !!
http://theanalyst.siterubix.com/saturdays-big-races/2014-midlands-grand-national
The Winter Derby is the race I will be analysing for next Saturday.
I hadn’t realised that Goulanes had finished behind Lord Windermere in the RSA; given that the stable had even said he was a 4 mile horse I should have realised why he was being backed
. As soon as they started we realised Junior was just setting it up for his stable companion. Time I gave up the gee gee’s and took up knitting instead
someone said on here that the rsa form was nothing special – when you look at the horses that finished behind i beg to differ
Sometimes things look too good to be true, and that’s the way they work out.
I had really fancied Pete The Feat, he likes the coarse, the going is perfect, the jockey is on a roll (Noel Fehily) winning the first three races, I’ve been oh so clever and managed to get best price 28/1 and the horse is subject of a major gamble into 7/1. It all looked perfect.
He traveled really well out the back, Fehily had him saving ground round the inside and he was making steady ground when, and I couldn’t quite see why, he came down at the 14th.
Maybe the racing Gods decided I was getting too cocky by far after Lord Windermere and no way was I getting two decent pay days on the trot.
I wouldn’t rule him out of the National yet VTC, he traveled really well. I’m just not sure why he came down, you can’t get a good look at it because it was first time he had jumped in with horses rather than following. He didn’t seem to clout the fence, the only worry is that I mentioned in my post prior to the race that he didn’t make a bad jumping mistake last time out when he unseated Fehily at Newbury, he just seemed to knuckle on landing. I’m not sure that he didn’t do the same again. It makes me wonder if he doesn’t have a problem there. Two falls in 46 previous runs doesn’t suggest a bad jumper. The jury’s still out on this one…..hope he makes it for you, at 51 on the card he still has a chance if Longsdon forgives him his current slip ups and there is not a problem found with his landing gear.
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