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For me it’s…
Aint 1:30 DELL’ARCA
Newc 1:40 BARLEYCORN LADY **NAP
Aint 2:05 TRIFOLIUM
Chep 2:30 OLYMPIAN BOYReserves;
1). Chep 3:45 SAROQUE
2). Aint 4:15 MR MOONSHINEGood luck all.
No horse in the last 20 years has carried more than 11-06 is Tidal Bay that good a horse to defy this trend ? Maybe.
The trend that takes out the most from my listing, is that the last 9 runnings have been won by horses aged 9-11.
I can’t get away from Mr.Moonshine but Ryan Mania won it last year and it’s not the sort of race that jockeys win twice. Some have but it’s very rare. Perhaps Richard Johnson (17 attempts) is due a win ?
Good luck with your bets.
13:45 – DELL’ARCA (Res: Monkey Kingdom)
14:15 – TRIFOLIUM (Res: Balder Succes)
14:50 – WHISPER (Res: Zarkandar)
15:25 – VINO GRIEGO (Res: Carruthers)
16:15 – MR MOONSHINE **NAP + QUITO DE LA ROQUE (Res: The Package)
17:10 – NESTERENKO (Reserve Nap) (Res: Rainbow Peak)
17:45 – AQALIM (Res: Celtic Agent)Good fun, I think my reserves have done better than my picks over the last 2 days !!
Thanks for running this comp Nathan.
14:00 – SGT RECKLESS (Res: The Game Changer)
14:30 – HOLYWELL (Res: Wonderful Charm)
15:05 – WISHFULL THINKING (Res: Rolling Aces)
15:40 –STANDING OVATION
SWIFT ARROW (Res: Bennys Mist)
16:15 – CAPOTE (16:50 – ALAVAIN (Res: Attaglance)
17:25 – LADY BUTTONS (Res:Millicent Silver)Another festival kicks off today, the Aintree "Grand National" Festival and I have done the trends analysis for one race on each of the three days.
Today’s race is the Foxhunters Chase at 3:40.
22 runners should line up for this Class 2 race over 2m 5f 110yards and on the Good to Soft going at Aintree will probably seem like 3 miles.
The trends I have found point to the potential winner being an established chaser who has already won a Class 2 Hunter Chase or Class 3 Handicap Chase before, has won on the going and ran recently.
My full analysis can be found on my blog
http://trendyrich.com/aintree-fox-hunters-chase/Good luck with your bets!
14:00 – ACTIVIAL (Res: Guitar Pete)
14:30 – MENORAH (Res: Dynaste)
15:05 – DIAKALI (Res: The New One)
15:40 – RICHARD’S SUNDANCE (Reserve Nap) + COURT RED HANDED (NAP) (Res: Pentiffic
16:15 – CLARET CLOAK (Res: Anquetta)
16:50 – OSCAR WHISKY (Res: Dodging Bullets)
17:25 – RIVERSIDE THEATRE (Res: Two Rockers)Real Madrid game ended up with 13 corners so I lost 10 – 13.00 x £5 =
Bal c/f -£26.25Tonight’s bet is in the Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund game…
Last 3 CL home games for Real Madrid
Real Madrid 9, total in game 10
Real Madrid 1, total in game 3
Real Madrid 4, total in game 9Averages
Real madrid 4.67
Total in game 7.67Last 3 CL away games for Borussia Dortmund…
Borussia Dortmund 3, total in game 9
Borussia Dortmund 0, total in game 8
Borussia Dortmund 2, total in game 4Averages
Borussia Dortmund 1.67
Total in game 7Real Madrid 4.67 + Atletico Madrid 1.67 = 6.34
Match Averages 7.67 + 7 = 14.67 / 2 = 7.34
Current price 10.0 – 10.5Bet: I am going to sell at 10 for £5 a corner.
Man Utd game ended up with 9 corners so I lost 9 – 11.25 x £5 =
There were 9 corners in the Barcelona game.Bal c/f -£11.25
Half time update…
Man Utd 1 corner
Bayern 6 corners
Total of 7 corners
Price now 12.25 – 12.75
Lots of attacking play so I’m doing to let the bet run.Barcelona 1 corner
Atletico 1 corner
Total of 2 corners
Price now 7.0 – 7.50
I’m glad I left the Barca game alone.Champions Legaue games tonight…
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid
Last 3 CL home games for Barcelona
Barcelona 5, total in game 9
Barcelona 10, total in game 12
Barcelona 9, total in game 12Averages
Barcelona 8
Total in game 11Last 3 CL away games for Atletico Madrid…
Atletico 6, total in game 9
Atletico 2, total in game 8
Atletico 5, total in game 10Averages
Atletico 4.33
Total in game 9Barcelona 8 + Atletico Madrid 4.33 =
12.33
Match Averages 11 + 9 = 20 / 2 =
10
Current price 10.25 – 10.75
Bet: No.
Manchester United v Bayern Munich
Last 3 CL home games for Man Utd
Man Utd 8, total in game 15
Man Utd 7, total in game 13
Man Utd 6, total in game 10Averages
Man Utd 7
Total in game 12.67Last 3 CL away games for Atletico Madrid…
Bayern 9, total in game 11
Bayern 2, total in game 9
Bayern 9, total in game 15Averages
Bayern 6.67
Total in game 11.67Man Utd 7 + Bayern 6.67 =
13.67
Match Averages 12.67 + 11.67 = 24.34 / 2 =
12.17
Current price 10.75 – 11.25
As both totals are above the offer of 11.25 I will buy corners.Bet: Buy at 11.25 for £5 a corner
Hahaha !! I wish.
I was a bit late getting the bet on and managed to buy at 11 instead of 11.25.
Half Time and looking good as there have been 6 corners and the price is now 12 – 12.5.
Do I want to take a fiver profit ? Nah ! I’m a high roller, let it ride !!
Quite a bit of support for Standing Ovation over the last couple of days…
20’s into 14’s at BetVic, BetFair Sportsbk and BetFair Exch
20’s into 12’s at ToteSport and BetFred.…and it’s on my trends listing too
http://trendyrich.com/topham-chase/Connections must be confident he will run, they need 8 withdrawals from horses higher up the ratings.
He’s also entered for the BetFred TV Chase and Grand National (40/1) on Saturday’s card.
Don’t worry Rodders, as you say it’s a learning curve.
Nowadays bookmakers are coming up with many inventive ways of enticing you to bet.
I’ve done my trends analysis and narrowed the field down to 12 at the 5 day decs stage.
Two of the (strongest?) trends are…
12 of the last 13 winners have carried 10-12 or less.
8 of the last 9 winners were rated 124-138.Lost Legend is probably the most fancied of the 12 on my listing.
Bennys Mist
Swing Bill
King Edmund
Last Time D´Albain
Swift Arrow
Giorgio Quercus
Massini´s Maguire
Lucky Landing
====================
Soll
Lost Legend
Your Busy
Real Milan
Standing Ovation
GanseyNot of all these will race but at the moment, those under the line need horses to withdraw.
I am keen on these three…
Last Time D´Albain – 20/1 with 6 bookies, 16/1 generally elsewhere.
Lost Legend – 14/1 Corals + SkyBet, 12/1 generally elsewhere.
Standing Ovation – 20/1 with BetV, 16/1 in places and 14/1 generally elsewhere.Good luck
not looking good.