Forum Replies Created
- Posts
I agree with your blog comments about the rather unsavoury backslapping that typically accompanies the classic "duck egg" coups – although would point out that ATR as a channel are by far the worst offenders when it comes to this.
Let’s hope some of your colleagues read your blog….
Please explain what you mean by, and to whom you are applying, the word "hysterical", TDK.
I’m applying it to virtually everything (and everyone) I have read and heard on the subject, from ATR to the forums like this one.
In terms of the race tactics, I guess the jockey was riding to orders.
Don’t get me wrong, it was a bizarre and frankly awful ride, but I have seen far more obvious "stopping jobs" than this – indeed one on the very same day. There is surely no question that the horse was a most unwilling partner in this race?
It is clear that the horse was quite obviously doing precisely the opposite of what the jockey was asking him to do for a large section of the race.
As for the jockey – has hasn’t ridden a winner for 5 years! The surprise being shown at his lack of ability is akin to being surprised that a D A Nolan horse runs disappointingly.
I’m amazed this has created such a hysterical reaction from some experienced punters and racereaders. The Barney Curley horse that blazed off at a million miles an hour yesterday was a far more unsatisfactory effort imo.
I’m not sure about this particular incidecnt…
Casela park looked to be making things extremely difficult for the jockey and I’m not sure if the lad on board is any good at all? (I can’t find any evidence that he has ridden any winners on the Racing Post site)
That said, I agree with Glenn’s point.
What was the pre-race market like on this beast?
May well not have trained on imo, but he didn’t have
that
strong a chance at the weights on his 2yo form anyway….
Don’t think Timeform even had him top rated for this race? (correct me if I am wrong DJ)
Will be very interesting to see how he gets on in the Juddmonte International, especially if Rip Van Winkle turns up against him.
Simply cant have it that Harbinger is one of the greatest horses of all time…
The point is that Harbinger’s Ascot win – in which he smashed up a last-time Irish Derby winner, a triple Arc winner, a Hong Kong Vase winner and a last-time Derby winner in a very good time – is being rated as one of the best single performances of all time.
A triple Arc winner?? I know Youmzain is a likeable beast and all, but…..
I take your point – maybe all these freakishly good performances are just that – freakishly good one-offs, rather than performances that need to be adjusted down when the horse fails to live reproduce them. No way of really proving that either way.
Guess the interesting point is whether any of us believe he can reproduce that level of form. I don’t.
But what I would like to know is WHAT did the horse need to do as a one-off performance to merit a 140-rating if he did not do it the other day?
Very good question.
I would just say that it is extremely difficult to convince that a "one-off" performance from a 8 times raced 130ish horse is worth 140. That level of form is so rarely achieved and the few opponents he faced so flimsy in terms of being reliable benchmarks.
Maybe Workforce finishing a clear second would have made it look more believable, but I essentially think that what you imply is correct. Almost nothing Harbinger could have done would convince everyone that he had run to 140+ the other day, especially at a track like Ascot.
Now – if he goes and smashes up the Arc field by 7l then maybe we can look back and believe what the algorithms told us at the time. Until then, I will remain deeply sceptical.
You’ve got me.
I actually post as mfordy on the betfair forum – my cover has finally been blown after all these years.
Pocket talk if you ask me.
Surprised this has taken 3 pages to come…
For the record – yes I backed Tactic, but I also backed the winner and made a profit on the race.
It is totally irrelevant to this debate, though.
It also completely ignores the facts – the race ended up being fought out by Electrolyser and Illustrious Blue, not Yeats and Ardross.
Even the most pessismistic interpration of Tactic’s form wouldn’t have him "out of his depth" against these two.
I can’t speak for the other firms in terms of how they finalise their prices, but I have noticed some go up in the afternoon the day before and trade around the buttons on Betfair.
Maybe the "buttons consensus" at 6.00pm the day before is what you are generally seeing in the paper? (If so, it is only a matter of time before people latch on and they get pulled around the park by spoofers)
Some excellent, informed replies here – TRF at its best.
Christ – a Richard Hills ridden horse and Glenn didn’t have it in the first two in his tissue! Maybe word got round and that explained the drift…
I take the point about the trip being a slight doubt and I wouldn’t have had any problem with the whole thing if he had travelled and emptied out – it was just the strength of the drift coupled by the subsequent abysmal run and lameness that didn’t seem right to me.
His best days are long gone, think he last trained a G1 winner in 2002 and has trained only one G2 winner in the last five years.
Agree with that, but Dunlop trained it to win impressively on his previous two starts. As stated in earlier posts, I don’t think the evidence is there to suggest the yard is out of form.
