- This topic has 60 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
I was looking for any visible reason as to why the horse drifted, and for the little time I saw him on TV, he was visibly on edge and had sweat either side of his neck. Although not exactly awash, I didn’t recall him sweating up before he ran at York and, as you say, the Curragh.
I have no clue how he went to post, but I personally believe he drifted because of his behaviour, appearance, and the usual outcome when this happens. As he was seen as the main danger to AOA, I can see why the balance shifted between the two so dramatically.
Some excellent, informed replies here – TRF at its best.
Christ – a Richard Hills ridden horse and Glenn didn’t have it in the first two in his tissue! Maybe word got round and that explained the drift…
I take the point about the trip being a slight doubt and I wouldn’t have had any problem with the whole thing if he had travelled and emptied out – it was just the strength of the drift coupled by the subsequent abysmal run and lameness that didn’t seem right to me.
I can’t speak for the other firms in terms of how they finalise their prices, but I have noticed some go up in the afternoon the day before and trade around the buttons on Betfair.
Maybe the "buttons consensus" at 6.00pm the day before is what you are generally seeing in the paper? (If so, it is only a matter of time before people latch on and they get pulled around the park by spoofers)
People can rationalise this all they want, check my post history this will confirm i am a pragmatist myself, but –
I was on the market for this race all day, and as David Johnson succinctly puts it, Tactic was laid like he was a sick dog all day before running like one.Today Tactic was outclassed on paper and outclassed on grass.
Stick to Cheltenham
Take out the grossly mis-leading Curragh form, beating a high class mare running while she was in season, he was out of his depth in a Cup race.I said so before the race and nothing’s changed.
Roses For The Lady, third that day comes out slightly inferior to Grace O’Malley, and, nice horse as she is, anyone who saw her run in The Lacashire Oaks would know how to rate Tactic in a Cup race
He drifted under the weight of money for Age Of Aquarius and on the fact that he should have opened around 6-1 he may well have looked unimpessive in the paddock, I can’t comment as I didn’t see the preliminaries.Thats one of best cherry pickings i’ve seen yet on here.
The official handicapper has it well and truly around his neck doesn’t he?
It also completely ignores the facts – the race ended up being fought out by Electrolyser and Illustrious Blue, not Yeats and Ardross.
Even the most pessismistic interpration of Tactic’s form wouldn’t have him "out of his depth" against these two.
Thats one of best cherry pickings i’ve seen yet on here.
The official handicapper has it well and truly around his neck doesn’t he?
If I hadn’t found out Profound Beauty was in season at The Curragh I’d have stood for Tactic too, does/did the handicapper take this into consideration?
- Total Posts 17716
All this "in season" business means little unless you know for certain that a particular mare always underperforms when in season. Not all fillies/mares go backwards at the wrong time of the month ( so to speak ). Do you have any accurate and relevant historical data relating to the mare being in season CS? If not you’re simply using an old wives tale as an excuse. I’ve had plenty of mares win when in season.
I appreciate the dedication shown by Cheltenham Specialist when it comes to the form of Profound Beauty. He’s been talking the mare up for ages and wont back down. He’ll do anything he can to account for her failures and build up her form profile. It’s definitely true love.
You can support PB with me for the Melbourne Cup all you like Mr CS. Couldn’t win it if she started now.
Perhaps the early price on Tactic was due to some spoofing by layers that wanted to get the horse at as low a price as possible when the volumes picked up? It’s just another theory ………………….
Pocket talk if you ask me.
Surprised this has taken 3 pages to come…
For the record – yes I backed Tactic, but I also backed the winner and made a profit on the race.
It is totally irrelevant to this debate, though.
Ingenius summary Mr. sports which neglects something fundamental – you don’t actually know who backed Tactic and who didn’t. I actually backed the favourite, mainly based on the barge-like drift of, what i saw, as the chief danger.
For the record – yes I backed Tactic, but I also backed the winner and made a profit on the race.
A pocket talker and an aftertimer. Can you get any worse.
For the record – yes I backed Tactic, but I also backed the winner and made a profit on the race.
A pocket talker and an aftertimer. Can you get any worse.
Probably a pricewise arber to boot. Needs Sir Tom to show him the way.
You’ve got me.
I actually post as mfordy on the betfair forum – my cover has finally been blown after all these years.
Trainer 1 winner and 6 placed from last 31, if he’s not out of form now I wouldn’t fancy following him when he was.
7/2 to 5/1 is hardly gigantic proportions, especially with the fav contracting so much.
But the key thing here surely is like the fav he finished lame, without that either could have hacked up despite the drift or contraction.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.