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Just on the issue of trainer form…
I’m aware that there are a number of ways of assessing whether a stable is in form or not but in my opinion Dunlop’s stable are running far behind market expectation. Looking at his last 40 runners, and more specifically the SPs of his last 40 runners, the market estimated that he should have had 6.6 winners. He had 2.
I suspect Betfair SPs would be more accurate in predicting how his runners perform but I don’t have that data.
The sad thing is, this thread could have concerned any horse at Goodwood yesterday that had a reasonable chance on the book and yet finished detached and distressed in some way. The others (Solicitor, Myplacelater and, depending on your criteria, Triple Aspect) were all signalled in the market beforehand.
It’s been a similar story all summer long. Whether the opposition is legitimate or not, it’s becoming a complete game breaker for anyone backing along traditional value/kelly lines.
I appreciate the dedication shown by Cheltenham Specialist when it comes to the form of Profound Beauty. He’s been talking the mare up for ages and wont back down. He’ll do anything he can to account for her failures and build up her form profile. It’s definitely true love.
You can support PB with me for the Melbourne Cup all you like Mr CS. Couldn’t win it if she started now.
Actually she’s the wife’s favourite racehorse not mine although I do think she’s got a great chance in The Melbourne Cup but I wouldn’t back her AP Personally I’d like to see her go for The Arc
My favourite horse is also a mare, FOR BILL, favourite flat horse, Rite Of PassageFirst detached horse of the day at Goodwood and guess what? It’s a big drifter – We Have a Dream.
Glenn the last time I checked
I had no access to your tissue,
however my crude scribblings
similarly gave tactic a back seat
in the race.It was worrying to see the big drift,
and whether that can all be down
to a bit of sweat around the afters
or a layers feeding frenzy – known as
the sheep and the cliff effect –
, or something altogether more sinister,
is anyones guess.I will join the aftertimers
in admitting my sole bet
in the cup
was to lay the favourite
late on,
but was unpleased to see it
break down.
I don’t like dirty money.Yesterday the detective
was at it,
spying on the
The sporting life site
to see Sea lord at sevens
after the off.
Surprised then to see the
shave to a 6-1 sp.
(why is it they invariably
come in ?)Must have cost the
yankee men a fortune
A sad week indeed Gamble. When even HillsGod in the holy silks doesn’t offer a safe haven it’s time to get another job.
I had Mark (of the popular beat combo Tom and Mark and Paul) on the batphone this week. He hadn’t heard of
the list
but did suggest a few krones if I had anything I wanted to get off my chest before he departs Gotham. That may have been a coded warning as to the outcome of today’s nursery at Goodwood.I fear the end is nigh and feel the time has come to clink glasses.
I’ll get the false beard
out of the drawer.
It’s full of dust
but been a good servant
over the years.Surely Betfair can identify who the big layers were and ask them for an explanation. Richard Hills knew the score as soon as the stalls opened I thought.
Not Tactic, but a similar theme regarding a set of prices I just couldn’t get my head around so thought I’d throw it open the floor if anyone wlse had a view on it.
2.10 Thirsk today
My tissue – Horse – betfair sp
3 – Blazing Desert – 6.41
7 – Lady Hestia – 8.8
8 – Tillietudlum – 4.9
5 – Rawnaq – 2.68
5 – Jeu de Roseau – 6.4Don’t think there was any foul play or anything, though Brennan might have kicked Blazing Desert on sooner and not challenged so wide.
but did suggest a few krones if I had anything I wanted to get off my chest before he departs Gotham. That may have been a coded warning as to the outcome of today’s nursery at Goodwood.
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