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I think there’s a reasonable amount of young talent around and that there always has been. The problem over the last 5-10 years has been that it’s been incredibly difficult for the youngsters to break through because the likes of AP, Ruby, Richard Johnson and Barry Geraghty (for whom I do not share the enthusiasm of other posters) have lasted so long at the top and in the top jobs. I think we’ve pretty much lost an age-group of jockeys through a) lack of opportunity to shine and to develop on the big stage and b) the constant, unfavourable, comparison with some truly sublime, and very different, talents. Will the youngsters measure up? I don’t know. Whatever happens, we need to appreciate the old guard while we have them because there’s no doubt that the end of an era is nigh …
Um. You seem have missed a year. AP won it two years ago. Last year Ballabriggs won, two horses were killed and there was dehydration problem at the end of the race and a misuse of the whip issue. There was a huge outcry about the whole thing.
It seems to me that the ones burying their heads in the sand are those who don’t/won’t recognise that the National has a greater attrition rate than jump racing in general and that it is the most visible race on the calendar. To put it baldly, this year and last year 5% of the runners died in the course of the race. This year 50% of the runners have F, BD or UR against their names. If you want to carry on watching carnage, that’s up to you. I don’t.
I think there has been a knee-jerk over-reaction to the two deaths today
To an extent, maybe, but I’ve read a number of posts on forums today from racing fans – National Hunt fans – who say they have become increasingly uncomfortable with the Grand National over the last few years. I’m in this camp – and this year I refused to watch it. I haven’t watched a race over those fences since last year’s National – which was, for me, the last straw.
I’m with Steeplechasing – for me, it’s the fences themselves that are the problem. The homogenisation of racing has proved the National’s undoing. The race is just too different and the horses are no longer trained in a way that encourages them to cope with it – the big fences have passed their sell-by date.
Take a look at this article from today’s Independent:
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing/the-last-word-kauto-was-a-star-but-humanising-him-masks-the-inhumane-side-of-racing-7576323.html
I’m not sure I shall be able to watch – and I’ll be at Cheltenham so if anyone knows any good hiding places, let me know! Not blaming them for running him, though – given his performances this year, how could they not? It doesn’t matter if he doesn’t win (it would be the most incredible bonus if he did), provided he comes back safe – he simply doesn’t have anything to prove. In beating Long Run twice this season, when he’s nowhere near the horse he was in his prime, Kauto has put his achievements (and, probably, those of Denman) into their proper, hugely exalted, perspective.
I’m with Miss Woodford.
And PFN was damned if he did and damned if he didn’t – if he did say something and Kauto was OK, he’d be accused of doing a "Binocular", he leaves it until he’s better apprised of the position and he’s lambasted for not letting "the public" – oh, hold on, let’s phrase that more realistically – "the betting public" know as soon as it happened.
For goodness sake, there are trainers out there who wouldn’t say a damned thing until they had to pull the horse out of the race.
Oh, and there are already conspiracy theorists out there who think it’s a scam.
I’ve met both, albeit Nicholls only briefly, and whilst Henderson is the more personable and approachable, I’m inclined to believe that there’s a certain amount of front to it. I have seen him in a rather less amenable frame of mind and it wasn’t particularly pleasant. With Nicholls I think that what you see is what you get.
I’ve visited both yards several times on non-public occasions and prefer the Ditcheat operation. There seem to be few horses with vices, which is usually an indicator that they are relatively happy and have plenty to keep them interested.
Long Run lost more ground round the home turn when Kauto kicked for home than at any other point in the race. He was outpaced at that point and that’s that.
In his youth and prime, Kauto had Grade 1 2-mile pace and he was able to inject at least some of that in longer races to put daylight between him and the rest of the field He hasn’t lost all of that and it’s something that Long Run hasn’t got – he is a staying chaser through and through. He’ll most likely beat Kauto in the Gold Cup but it won’t be because he’s the quicker horse, or even as quick. It’ll be the stamina that does it.
Kauto’s time of 6.05 (GS) is on a par with his other winning King George runs. His King George times 2006-9 are: 6.06 (GS),6.09 (GS),5.57 (G),6.07 (GS).
So no sign of a decline in my view. However, I don’t think the Gold Cup is his best track or trip. And LR and possibly Grands Crus are worthy opponents.
I don’t agree with this (hmm – doing a lot of disagreeing on this thread!)
You can’t compare times year on year without looking at the times of all the races on the day, in my view. The going for any given day can only be an indicator – "good-to-soft", for example, can end up being quite a varied description!
If you make a year-on-year comparison between 2011, 2009 and 2008 (I’ve omitted 2010 because it was rescheduled, which affected the races that were run on the same day) this is what you get:
Race/ distance/ 2011/ 2009/ 2008
Novice hurdle/ 2m/ s8.8/ s15.6/ s5.7
Nov H’cap chase/ 2m4.5/ s9.0/ s14.8/ s7.4
Feltham/ 3m/ s4.2/ s17.4/ s9.5
Christmas Hurdle/ 2m/ s6.6/ s15.8/ s7.3
King George/ 3m/ s7.0/ s9.1/ f0.6
H’cap Hurdle/ 2m5/ s12.9/ s23.1/ s11.4
Times compared with standard – "s" = slow, "f" = fast
Sorry – don’t know how to paste it as a tableOn that basis, the KG this year was run in a very unspectacular time and in no way suggests that Kauto is as good as he was in his prime – frankly, it would be a miracle if he was!
Reet, I’d still have to disagree – I think the only place in which Long Run was really making up ground between the fences was in the home straight. Having said that, I don’t think the horse lacks pace as such, he just doesn’t have Kauto’s pace.
For what it’s worth, I think Long Run will beat Kauto at Cheltenham, if they’re both there. The Gold Cup course and distance has always (in my view) been outside Kauto’s comfort zone (which makes his exploits in it all the more remarkable)and age has made it more difficult for him to transcend that.
On the flat, he was making ground up between nearly every fence, only to lose it with indifferent jumping
I have to say I totally disagree with this.
For sheer enjoyment’s sake I’ve watched the replay several times over the last couple of days and the crucial point of the race was the turn for home. Ruby had been winding it up all the way down the back straight and Long Run had more or less been keeping tabs, albeit with increasingly scrappy jumping. As they turned in, Ruby and Kauto kicked again and Long Run lacked the tactical speed either to go with him or, crucially, to even be able to bridge the gap until Kauto steadied for the third last. After that you could say that Long Run was making ground between the fences but I’d suggest this was more about his superior stamina kicking in than about speed.
Personally, I also think that Kauto was a little less sharp than he was at Haydock – his jumping was not quite as fluent.
Denman’s going to the Lexus followed by the Gold Cup, all being well.
Fantastic result yesterday – didn’t know whether to laugh or cry so ended up doing both at the same time ..
If the whips are completely unnessecary then why did Ruby Walsh feel the need to slap Lochan Lacha with his hand in a handicap hurdle earlier this season
Actually, I thought that this race was an excellent example of the whip NOT being necessary.
Ruby’s slaps, if they even made contact, really wouldn’t have been felt by the horse – have you tried hitting something behind you at that angle? There is no way you can put any force into it. The horse, in this case, as galvanised by the movement, the shifts in the jockey’s weight (to the extent that changing the imaginary whip hand influenced the direction in which the horse was tending to hang) and the other aids that are used in a finish – i.e. kicking, squeezing, possibly shouting. Much of the effect of the whip is psychological.
As always, thoughts with Debs and Luke at this time.
I so often have cause to think of Craig – there are a number of us whose lives have been enriched by the forum, the syndicates and the friendships that have grown and endured.
