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Of course King Kauto should run in the Gold Cup!
It’s only a few months away and the horse is hardly in bad form.
*sheesh*
Zip
Long Run at 11/4 does look good value for the GC. I reckon 90% chance of turning up, 80% chance of getting round, 50% chance of winning, so 0.9×0.8×0.5= 0.36 or odds of 2.8 i.e. roughly 7/4.
It looks like a weak race this year without Denman and Imperial Commander. Younger contenders look outclassed and Kauto’s record at Cheltenham is not as good as at Kempton.
Kauto might also be value. Because LR doesn’t seem to like frontrunning and is a bit one-paced, Kauto seems to be able to dictate the pace which is a big advantage.
Ruby was praised for both serving it up at Haydock with a fast time and slowing it down at Kempton. Kauto’s time at Haydock suggests he may not yet be past his peak. He looked like he had a bit left at the end of the KG as well so maybe he could just hold on at Cheltenham.
I should add though that Grands Crus if he runs in the GC would probably be a 4-1 shot or less. He has proven stamina and jumping ability and could easily be as good as LR or Kauto.
Ginger when you evaluate the chances of a horse in an ante-post bet do you factor in the chance of the horse actually getting to post? Unless you do I think for long term bets then your percentages wont have the same degree of accuracy.
Of course I evaluate the chances of a horse not turning up (or not showing his form) EF. For example Hurricane Fly would be nearer Even money than 5/2 if we knew he’d turn up in peak fitness. But I wouldn’t take the 5/2 right now.
As I said, Long Run has so far been a "sound individual", with (as yet) no significant training troubles.
Value Is Everything
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Can’t agree that Long Run is one-paced, or that he needs further.
On the flat, he was making ground up between nearly every fence, only to lose it with indifferent jumping, and with that sorted, Kempton’s sharp 3m would be no problem for him – as he has shown twice previously.On the flat, he was making ground up between nearly every fence, only to lose it with indifferent jumping
I have to say I totally disagree with this.
For sheer enjoyment’s sake I’ve watched the replay several times over the last couple of days and the crucial point of the race was the turn for home. Ruby had been winding it up all the way down the back straight and Long Run had more or less been keeping tabs, albeit with increasingly scrappy jumping. As they turned in, Ruby and Kauto kicked again and Long Run lacked the tactical speed either to go with him or, crucially, to even be able to bridge the gap until Kauto steadied for the third last. After that you could say that Long Run was making ground between the fences but I’d suggest this was more about his superior stamina kicking in than about speed.
Personally, I also think that Kauto was a little less sharp than he was at Haydock – his jumping was not quite as fluent.
Exactly Tete,
It isn’t that Long Run has no pace at all. Otherwise he wouldn’t have gone clear of the third and fourth. It’s just he does not have the pace of Kauto Star. It wasn’t until Kauto tired in the latter stages that Long Runstayed on
and gained on Kauto.
There’s a big difference between making up ground with "pace" and making it up by "staying power" Reet. It was down the back straight and turn for home Kauto out-speeded (outpaced) Long Run.
Over another 2 1/2 furlongs and on a stiffer track like Cheltenham:
A) Long Run won’t need as much speed to beat Kauto Star.
B) Long Run’s superior stamina will be more effective.
C) Only draw back is jumping ability is of more importance too, as Prestbury takes more prisoners.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Tete Rouge
I did say atnearly
every fence.
Yes, he did lose ground on the sharp bend turning into the straight, but at the 3 fences prior to that, and the 3 afterwards, he made indiffferent jumps, took about a dozen strides to regain his equilibrium, and then made up ground again on the leaders. That is not the sign of a horse who lacks pace.Ginger
Blah de blah, de blah de blah.
Whatever pace or stamina LR has, it seems to me they will not be able to fix his jumping. Under pressure he cannot arch properly, flexibility or physical problem IMO.
I think I have mentioned before but it is worth repeating that in an interview on Channel 4 in the late 80’s Henry stated that thoroughbreds peak approximately every 2 years.
Last season Kauto Star was not at his peak, whereas it is reasonable to suppose that Long Run was. At Haydock Kauto won easily, at Kempton he was not as authorative. Given his advanced years I cannot see Paul Nicholls being able to keep him at the same level till March and trips in excess of 3 miles would not be likely to see him to his best advantage. If they even take Kauto Star to the Festival I honestly think he would stand a greater chance of winning the Ryanair than the Gold Cup. By-passing Cheltenham in favour of Aintree and/or Punchestown might be a better bet.
Reet, I’d still have to disagree – I think the only place in which Long Run was really making up ground between the fences was in the home straight. Having said that, I don’t think the horse lacks pace as such, he just doesn’t have Kauto’s pace.
For what it’s worth, I think Long Run will beat Kauto at Cheltenham, if they’re both there. The Gold Cup course and distance has always (in my view) been outside Kauto’s comfort zone (which makes his exploits in it all the more remarkable)and age has made it more difficult for him to transcend that.
Ginger
Blah de blah, de blah de blah.Careful Tete,
Reet will get the hump with you next. He doesn’t like people disagreeing with him more than once.
Value Is EverythingI know I am going to get shot down here, but I think Long Run is at present a better horse than Kauto Star, and I think that he could well be as good as Kauto has been over the years. You have to consider that Kauto Star won his first King George and Gold Cup at 7years. Long Run is still 6 and has already won a King George and a Gold Cup.
You’re miles off the mark mate you really are.
If the Kauto Star of today met Kauto Star Boxing Day 2009 he wouldn’t have got within 15 lengths of him.
On that one day Kauto Star reached heights that only Arkle himself could have beaten him, possibly. At Cheltenham Arkle would have eaten him alive but at Kempton? what a race that would have been.
There is very little between Long Run and Kauto at the moment but you can’t say Long Run is better (That’s Blasphemy)because jumping is the name of the game and Kauto just kicked his backside plain and simple.
To give you an idea how much Kauto had regressed over the years. On boxing day he won the King George in a time 2 seconds slower than Grand Crus won the Feltham in 2009 he won it 8 seconds faster the Long Run won the Feltham.
Long Run is most likely at the peak of his powers right now and give me the impression he’s very unlikely to get much better despite his age. For him to become as good as Kauto Star was he’s going to have to improve round about 20lbs and that is a huge ask if not impossible.
I would say Long Run could quite possibly dominate the staying chase division for years to come, but only when Kauto Star retires. The horse has been a a machine for years, clearly something was amiss last year when he bled at Kempton and pulled up later in the season. He has been dining at the top table for years and when he throws in a poor run, people call for retirement! He has proved them wrong, beaten Long Run not once, but twice already this season, and I don’t care about the times, you have to try and get past this horse. Long Run is good, but when Kauto Star is right, is just not quite as good, plain and simple.
I think the Gold Cup may well be a furlong too far outside of Kauto Star’s comfort zone too, but it wasn’t out of Denman’s and he reversed Gold Cup form with him! I would not like to say which way it will go, something else may even win it, it’s not a two horse race. But whatever happens, it will be a fitting way to end the career of what is probably the best horse I’ve ever seen. What an amazing racehorse! And what a good training feat to keep him going at the top table for the amount of time he has. That is no mean feat! It would not surprise me to see him be the first horse to regain it twice, another record beckons, and it would be a brave man to say it’s impossible.Some interesting points raised on this thread about this years King George result,my feeling is that Ruby actually stole the race with his superior knowledge of ‘timing’,i believe that had a jockey of Geraghtys experience known Long run like Sam Waley-Cohen should know him then he would have been ‘at’ his horse far more than Sam was.When Ruby looked between his legs you just know he was thinking ‘Christ i’m actually getting away with this’! Brilliant skills from Ruby won the day from a horse he knows like the back of his hand.Poor Skills from Sam lost the race imo. Normally i would say Long Run would leave Kauto for dead at Cheltenham in March from what i saw in the King George but Kauto has made me look the numpty before so i’ll just look forward to yet another mouthwatering clash. 77 days 5hrs and 12 mins but who’s counting?
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I’m backing Long Run after backing kauto in the last 2 races. I’ll be happy to lose my fiver if Kauto wins though.
I think Long Run will stay better than anything but should his jumping let him down terribly, Synchronised could be a danger.
Does anyone else think Long Run could win a national in a few years time? I know he don’t jump great but the way he runs on he looks like he’d win it with everything else out of the handicap. Hopefully we’ll find out, the owners make it more likely.
I’ve never been a believer in the argument that Kauto is a different animal at Kempton compared to Cheltenham. When Denman beat him he was never travelling or jumping like he can and ran a very similar race to when Long Run beat him in the King George. In the 2010 Gold Cup he was tanking along until he took the 8th fence with him, showing his trademark cat like reactions to find a leg. He was up against it after that and the writing looked on the wall when he fell. Had he not made that blunder I think he would have won that race. And his run in the 2011 Gold Cup happened to be his best effort of the season. If he does lose at Cheltenham, I don’t think it will be because he’s not as good there, rather the extra 2 furlongs may be against him these days.
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