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Gingertipster,
Thanks.
Article published here http://wp.me/1o7dN
Look forward to your final verdict
Thanks again
Joe
GingerT,
Are you happy for me to publish your post on my blog with a credit and link to your original?
Thanks
Joe
http://wp.me/1o7dNIdianInk,
I’m with you on COD – has a much better chance than price suggests.
Gingertipster,
That’s the best National preview I’ve ever read outside of the trade papers – and it beats most of those too. Thanks for putting in all the work it must have taken.
Have you a blog/website?
5 day acceptors in racecard layout
THE 2011 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL
Class 1, Grade 3, £950,000 total Prize Fund. 4.15pm, Aintree, Saturday, April 9, 2011, four miles and four furlongs. For six-year-olds old and upwards which are allotted a rating of 110 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including February 13, 2011. Horses which are not qualified for a rating in Great Britain or Ireland at February 1, 2011, may also be entered. Such horses may be eligible for a weight providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse’s racecourse performances to February 13, 2011, would merit a minimum rating of 110. To qualify horses must have run at least three times in Steeple Chases run under the Rules of Racing of the same Recognised Turf Authority up to and including February 13, 2011. At the Handicapper’s discretion such horses may be allocated a rating. The decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final. No penalties after publication of the weights. Highest weight 11st 10lb. Entries closed February 1, entries revealed February 2 (102 entries, 3 subsequently scratched), weights revealed February 15, first scratchings deadline March 1 (82 remained), second scratchings deadline March 22 (74 remained). Five-day confirmation stage April 4 (65 five-day confirmations), final declaration stage 10.00am, April 7 – maximum field size of 40, plus 4 reserves. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Sunday, April 3. WITH CORRECT NUMBERING & ORDER OF ELIMINATIONForm Horse Age/Wgt Owner Trainer/Probable Jockey
1) P1-P000 DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 11-11-10 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill/Tony McCoy
2) 04-3226 TIDAL BAY (IRE) 10-11-09 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson/Brian Hughes
3) 211-524 WHAT A FRIEND 8-11-06 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob
4) 1B-0044 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 11-11-06 Seamus Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE/Andrew Lynch
5) U62/1-31 MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE) 8-11-05 Dr Ronan Lambe Dermot Weld IRE/Robbie McNamara
6) 42F14 OR NOIR DE SOMOZA (FR) 9-11-05 Filsal Stadeg Racing David Pipe/Tom Scudamore
7) 1F24-41 DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 10-11-04 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE/Mr Patrick Mullins
14-2F44 BIG FELLA THANKS 9-11-01 Crossed Fingers Partnership Ferdy Murphy/Graham Lee
9) 205-244 THE TOTHER ONE (IRE) 10-11-00 Graham Roach Paul Nicholls/Mr Ryan Mahon
10) 111-112 BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 10-11-00 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain/Jason Maguire11) 3133-21 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 10-10-13 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE/Ruby Walsh
12) 20P-F50 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 10-10-13 Graham Regan Paul Nicholls/Harry Skelton
13) 121-001 SILVER BY NATURE 9-10-12 Geoff Brown Lucinda Russell/Peter Buchanan
14) 0BP-500 BACKSTAGE (FR) 9-10-12 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE/Paul Carberry
15) 11-053F CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 11-10-12 Maurice Chapman Jimmy Moffatt/Paddy Aspell
16) 4-56242 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 8-10-10 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight/Hadden Frost
17) 2P-2536 KILLYGLEN (IRE) 9-10-10 David McCammon Stuart Crawford IRE/Robert Power
18) 152-263 OSCAR TIME (IRE) 10-10-09 Robert Waley-Cohen/Sir Martin & S Broughton Martin Lynch IRE/ Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
19) 10-1131 QUINZ (FR) 7-10-08 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson
20) 500423 NORTHERN ALLIANCE (IRE) 10-10-08 Irish Rover Syndicate Tony Martin IRE/Barry Geraghty21) 2212-42 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 8-10-08 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn IRE/Davy Russell
22) 000-06P COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 12-10-08 David Johnson David Pipe/Timmy Murphy
23) F-FF25P QUOLIBET (FR) 7-10-08 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill/Mark Walsh
24) 1FP10P GRAND SLAM HERO (IRE) 10-10-07 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nigel Twiston-Davies/Aidan Coleman
25) 6/454-P6 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 11-10-07 Bryan & Philippa Burrough Nigel Twiston-Davies/????
26) 0/144/P3- STATE OF PLAY 11-10-06 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams/Paul Moloney
27) 11-11P5 KING FONTAINE (IRE) 8-10-06 Trevor Hemmings Malcolm Jefferson/Denis O’Regan
28) U-3431U IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 11-10-05 Westerly Breeze Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE/Leighton Aspell
29) 005P-1P HELLO BUD (IRE) 13-10-05 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies/Sam Twiston-Davies
30) P/00-11P WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 9-10-05 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater Alan King/Robert Thornton31) 200010 SANTA’S SON (IRE) 11-10-05 Douglas Pryde & Jim Beaumont Howard Johnson/Jamie Moore
32) C21-046 BLUESEA CRACKER (IRE) 9-10-04 J P McManus James Motherway IRE/Andrew McNamara
33) 01050 THAT’S RHYTHM (FR) 11-10-04 Don’t Tell Henry Martin Todhunter/James Reveley
34) P2/111/-0 SURFACE TO AIR 10-10-04 Tim Urry Chris Bealby/Tom Messenger
35) P-234PP PIRAYA (FR) 8-10-04 Terry Neill David Pipe/Johnny Farrelly
36) 6F-0P5P CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 9-10-04 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill/Richie McLernon
37) 0-30563 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 11-10-04 Patricia Thompson John Quinn/Miss Nina Carberry
38) 15/1P/-52 ORNAIS (FR) 9-10-04 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls/Nick Scholfield
39) U2U-0P2 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 9-10-03 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE/David Casey
40) 013111- OUR MONTY (IRE) 8-10-03 Colland Sand & Gravel Ltd Willie Mullins IRE/Ms Katie Walsh41) P5U-42P ROYAL ROSA (FR) 12-10-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson/Paul Gallagher
42) 313-011 SKIPPERS BRIG (IRE) 10-10-02 Ashleybank Investments Limited Nicky Richards/Dominic Elsworth
43) 210010 GOLDEN KITE (IRE) 9-10-02 Dr Anthony Calnan Adrian Maguire IRE/Shane Hassett
44) 006004 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 10-10-02 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas Peter Bowen/???
45) 321112 PUTNEY BRIDGE 9-10-01 Louise Goldsworthy Keith Goldsworthy/???
46) 4/22-1PP BELON GALE (IRE) 8-10-01 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson/???
47) 402P-02 FAASEL (IRE) 10-10-01 Jim Ennis David Pipe/???
48) 02043P LE BEAU BAI (FR) 8-10-01 Glass Half Full Richard Lee/???
49) D61-0F0 MERIGO (FR) 10-10-01 Raymond & Anita Anderson Green Andrew Parker/???
50) 6-02162 ASKTHEMASTER (IRE) 11-10-00 Carrolle Wall Robert Tyner IRE/???51) 11P61/0/- STARZAAN (IRE) 12-10-00 Ben Arbib Hughie Morrison/???
52) 123-P22 GILES CROSS (IRE) 9-10-00 KCMS Partnership Victor Dartnall/???
53) 1U0-660 SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 9-10-00 Billy Moffett/R T & J McLoughlin Tony Martin IRE/???
54) 1-PP11P SAGALYRIQUE (FR) 7-9-13 Sir Robert Ogden Donald McCain/???
55) U0-6042 AMBOBO (USA) 11-9-13 Deirdre Brassil Martin Brassil IRE/???
56) 241P64 DUERS (IRE) 9-9-13 Kate Kelly/Kate Ronan Paul Magnier IRE/???
57) 11120-P TOBY JUG 10-9-13 Paul & Caron Chapman & Sarah Humphrey Sarah Humphrey/???
58) 131-321 JUNIOR 8-9-12 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe/???
59) 064260 THE SAWYER (BEL) 11-9-12 David Fear Bob Buckler/???
60) 2613-PP GALANT NUIT (FR) 7-9-12 David Parry Ferdy Murphy/???61) 044522 BALLYFITZ 11-9-09 Fred & Wayne Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies/???
62) F4-5365 POMME TIEPY (FR) 8-9-09 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE/???
63) 24U344 I’MONCLOUDNINE (IRE) 8-9-09 Fred Matthews Neil Mulholland/???
64) 116PP-P TREACLE (IRE) 10-9-04 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE/???
65) P23221 REGAL HEIGHTS (IRE) 10-9-02 Janet Heler Tom George/???The order of elimination was decided this afternoon by Phil Smith, Head of Handicapping at the British Horseracing Authority.
The declared runners will be known on Thursday morning and there will be four reserves which have to be utilised by Friday morning.
65 five-day confirmations 20 Irish-trained
The nine horses who did not go forward at today’s five-day stage were Midnight Chase, Synchronised, Scotsirish, Notre Pere, Ballytrim, Nedzer’s Return, Frankie Figg, One Cool Cookie and Dev.
JSGN official elimination order 40 max – 39)ARBOR SUPREME, 40)OUR MONTY, 41)ROYAL ROSA, 42)SKIPPERS BRIG, 43)GOLDEN KITE, 44)ALWAYS WAINING.
last 4 to make it into GN:
Surface To Air (GB)
That’s Rhythm (FR)
Arbor Supreme (IRE)
Our Monty
Full decs on my blog:
John Smith’s Grand National* entry, Our Monty has been trading at around 200/1 on Betfair these past few days – now 120/1 – and that is way too big in my opinion.
A maximum of 40 runners will line up for the big race next Saturday and Our Monty is number 48 on the list so he needs a few withdrawals to get a run. One horse, Our Monty’s stablemate, Ballytrim has already been taken out of the race (lame) and, sadly, One Cool Cookie – alongside Our Monty in the weights with 10stone 3lbs – suffered a fatal accident on the gallops.
Frankie Figg has since been announced a non-runner (he was on the same weight as Our Monty)
So Our Monty needs five horses above him in the weights to come out at the next declaration stage – noon today – to be sure of a run. Doubtless there will be some defectors and, possibly, between today and Saturday; the key will be whether those withdrawn are above him in the weights. Four reserves will be chosen too.
The good news is that trainer Willie Mullins is reported today as saying the horse will be left in till the final stages to face the ballot for a place in the line-up. If Our Monty is unsuccessful in that ballot, bets on him are void and his supporters get their money returned.
Mr Mullins said in his Racing Post column last weekend that he believed Our Monty had been overlooked and that the horse was very well. If he makes it to the post on Saturday, it will be Our Monty’s first run since 15th November 2009 when he won the Paddy Power.com Cork Grand National. Here’s his form comment for that victory:
Settled in mid-division on inner, mistake 6 out, smooth progress to track leader entering straight, switched left to stands’ side and disputed 3 out, led next, cruised clear before last, very easily (op 2/1 tchd 11/4
The quote from jockey David Casey after that race was:
“I’d have no problem riding him over any trip. He could make an Irish National horse.”
Casey will ride Arbor Supreme but Katie Walsh has been booked for Our Monty (see K Walsh factfile at foot)
Our Monty’s next outing after Cork was to be in the Coral Welsh Grand National. He was as short as 8/1 for that before being withdrawn.
I don’t know why the horse has been off so long – I suspect a tendon injury has kept him out. However, Mr Mullins said last week that the horse is very well and they simply ran out of time in trying to find a prep race for him this season.
Our Monty’s full form panel appears at the foot of this article. He has won and been placed on the Flat. Over jumps he’s won at 2miles 1furlong and at 3m 4f. He has victories on good to firm ground and on heavy. Such versatility can be the sign of a very decent horse.
Our Monty joined the Mullins yard in late 2009 and is unbeaten in three runs since, winning each easily. He’s not that big but jumps well. He fell first time out over fences but in four subsequent ‘chasing runs he has made just one mistake. The trends boys will tell you that a horse with just five steeplechasing runs is one to avoid due to the experience needed in the National, and there’s plenty evidence to support that theory. But I never let trends put me off if the value is there.
If Our Monty does not get into the National, watch out for him wherever he appears next. He has an entry in Friday’s John Smith’s Topham Chase and has also been entered for the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on April 23rd.
If you can get on at odds above 25/1 for the National with a guarantee of money back if he is balloted out, you will have had value. Taking the current huge prices available on the betting exchanges (Our Monty can be backed place only at what, in my opinion, should be his win price, around 24/1) is a no-brainer.
Good luck
Joe
http://wp.me/p1o7dN-cwMs Katie Walsh Born: December 18, 1984 County Kildare Background: Daughter of trainer and broadcaster Ted Walsh and sister of Ruby. Honed her riding skills three-day eventing First Winner: Hannon, Gowran Park, October 10, 2003. Rides principally for Willie Mullins. Cheltenham Festival Wins (2): Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle (2010 Thousand Stars); 140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase (2010 Poker De Sivola) Wins In Britain (2004/05-2009/10): 0; 0; 0; 1; 0; 2;
I’ll be posting some general factfiles on participants, human and equine, this week in the hope of offering some insight:
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) b g Moscow Society (USA) – Miss Perky (IRE) (Creative Plan (USA))9-10-03 Form: 135/4F5324151/1330/37U2U-0P2 Owner: J P McManus, Trainer: Willie Mullins IRE Breeder: Thomas O’Brien
Arbor Supreme hails from the family of high-class chasers Celtic Ryde, Noddy´s Ryde and Teeton Mill, and made a successful start to his career when an eight-length winner of a Leopardstown bumper in January, 2007. He was then sold to J P McManus, but did not win either of his next two starts over hurdles.
Sent over fences at the start of the 2007/08 season, he got off the mark at the seventh attempt in that sphere in a beginners’ chase at Naas in March and ended the campaign by defeating seasoned handicappers in a three mile, six furlong handicap chase at Punchestown in April.
The 2008/09 season began with another victory in a staying handicap chase at Fairyhouse but he was winless for the rest of the campaign, including when 14th behind Niche Market in the Irish Grand National. At the Punchestown Festival in May, 2009, he finished third to Ambobo in a valuable handicap chase.
Arbor Supreme was mid-division in the 2010 John Smith’s Grand National when unseating Paul Townend at The Chair. This season, he was well beaten at Naas first time and then was pulled up in the Welsh National before finishing a length second to The Midnight Club in the Grade Two Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on February 23. He is one of six remaining entries for Willie Mullins. Race Record: Starts: 24; Wins: 4 ; 2nd: 3; 3rd: 5; Win & Place PrizeMoney: £92,775
Barry
Geraghty’s record in Class One handicap hurdles, excluding Ireland,since 1996 . . .
62 rides
10 wins (16.1% Strike Rate)
Return on Investment (ROI) backing every runner at Betfair odds: 182.7% (100% = break even)
For comparison:
Ruby Walsh record in same category:
117 rides
13 wins (11.1% SR)
ROI 131%
AP McCoy
159 rides
20 wins (12.6 SR)
ROI(93.6 – a loss)
David Pipe’s record in the Class One handicap Hurdle, Imperial Cup:
6 runners
2 winners (33.3%Strike Rate)
Return on Investment (ROI) backing every runner at Betfair odds: 152.1% (100% = break even)
Geraghty has his first ever ride for David Pipe today in the Class One Imperial Cup on Arrayan who is around 7/1. Geraghty would normally ride for Nicky Henderson who runs the fancied Eradicate, although theres’ every chance Mr Henderson chose to give the ride to the talented claimer David Bass who lightens Eradicate’s load by 3lbs, so it must not be assumed that Barry Geraghty has ‘begged off’ to ride the Pipe horse.
Good luck
At a preview night last week, Ruby summed up the Gold Cup thus:
"Imperial Commander worked well at Kempton and the vibes from the camp are good. Even Paddy Brennan, who’s a pessimist, is quite bullish – you have to take that on board.
Long Run was brilliant in the King George but for my money he’s ground-dependent more so than track-dependent. His Paddy Power was on good, Sun Alliance was on good, all his French form is on soft. He can maintain a serious gallop on soft; he’s ground-dependent.
Denman’s had a wind op. Ran well in the Hennessy and must have some sort of a chance as has Kauto. I’d love Kauto to win a third Gold Cup as I think he’s the greatest horse of all time.
Kempes bolted in in the Irish Hennessey, he’ll love good ground and should run a good race. Pandorama looks ground-dependent but Noel Meade thinks the sun shines out of his rear end, he really fancies him. Midnight Chase would be too slow, Tidal Bay’s not good enough, Neptune Collonges is a bit old . . . I hope Kauto can win it – he’s not as fast as he used to be but he’s in good nick and looks value at 13/2, but for me Imperial Commander is the one to beat."
Stats and trends have become hugely popular in the past few years, especially for festival meetings. Maths was never my strong point – if I could work out a £2 double at 11/4 and 9/2 I was happy.
So when stats came to the fore in racing, I, like many, welcomed them. They were the S-Plan diet for form students – lose work, gain time painlessly.The first time I was alerted to the cracks in the stats ceiling was in 2008 when I had a very strong fancy for Captain Cee Bee in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham.
But the stats boys said – “Ignore seven-year-olds, they have a very poor record”. The Supreme is a race for novice hurdlers aged four and older. I set about digging a bit deeper and found that in the previous ten years, only a handful of seven-year-olds had run in the Supreme. That blew the stat’s credence, making it a non-stat. It also helped Captain Cee Bee go off at a longer price so the ‘stat’ was helpful to me in the end.
Another, bound to pop up somewhere before next Friday, is “ignore six-year-olds (Long Run) who have a very poor record in the Gold Cup” But as the popular Paul Jones, the man who is to stats what Brian Epstein was to The Beatles, tells us in his annual Festival Guide , only three six-year-olds have run in the race since 1963.
My simplistic view is that, unless stats are published with a sample size, treat them with extreme caution. For a much more comprehensive and learned insight, you might find these articles interesting
http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/ … -list.html
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing … 10111.html
Good luck
Joe
http://wp.me/P1o7dN-2Funeral march horns for print publishing grow ever louder.
Aren’t Betfair’s directors also legally compelled to do the best they can for their shareholders?
Their share price is half of what it was at its highest. There will be a significant degree of panic in the boardroom, I suspect.
If you are utterly honest and objective, and picture yourself sitting in the CEO’s chair at Betfair, what would you have done?
I used to work at the Tote and tried till my head was sore to get them to substantially lower deductions on all products, especially jackpot and scoop6.
Pointless.
They promote a £2m jackpot and pay out £1.4 then wonder why questions are asked.
As Tom Waites said "The large print giveth and the small print taketh away"
