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I’ve always liked the horse. Saw him at Kelso a few times. He paid me back well today for past support
http://i1059.photobucket.com/albums/t426/Steeplechasing/th_239_zpsd29dff86.jpg
I keep looking for reasons Quel Esprit should be a 50/1 shot and can’t find any.
He’s a Grade 1 winner, and is entitled to still be improving over fences after just 9 Chases (he’s won 4 of those). He seems to have been around for a while but is only 9.
He raced with real enthusiasm in the Irish Hennessy last time, jumping for fun in a lovely rhythm till be blew up badly. I’m no breeding student but a friend who specialises in dosage stats says he has a good chance of staying the trip. His trainer thinks he’s a stayer.
He’s well capable of taking a prominent position early which should help keep him out of trouble and his jumping, touch wood, looks as if it will stand him in good stead over these fences.
He has a strong element of class (lacking in most of the field bar the aging top weight) and that rhythm he can drum up can be vital at Aintree for conserving energy . . . if he stays I can see nothing with a better chance and at the price I’m happy to gamble on his stamina.
He has just moved above Join Together to hit the top of my list driven up there by superb value
Of course it is Joe.
I’ll put my idea of the prices to beat against each name at some stage (probably Friday evening). Although you might just want a guide without a conclusion Joe for your purposes.
Will also do a write up for Soll (probably tomorrow afternoon).
Am glad Soll got in. Impressed with his jumping at Sandown.
Thanks Ginger. Yes, I had a couple of quid on Soll at 80 on the chance he’d get in. Should see the trip out too and is big enough to bully a few out of the way (big enough to trip over something to0 I suppose!)
Superb stuff Ginger, as ever, a hell of a lot of work in that. Usual question, is it OK to publish on my blog (will credit and link)?
Thanks
JoeI’ll be betting 5 or 6 as I always do but have now settled on my main bet – Join Together. As mentioned, I usually avoid EW but 16/1 JT paying 6 places (Betvictor) is outstanding value imo.
I’m looking to place a £5 (£10) EW bet this year on that amazing Bet Victor deal – 6 places.
Any suggestions for a good value horse? I was thinking TeaforThree, but that would pay little if it placed
THM@s recommendation, Ninetieth Minute has been cut to 66s with Betvictor, but you might want to consider him. Also worth consideration is Soll at 40/1. He might just about get in – if he doesn’t you get your money back.
Quel Esprit is a classy horse (1 Grade 1 and 2 Grade 3 wins), he’s 33s
Good luck
JoeI am a Frankelphile – fully paid up member, but I will go to my grave convinced that a mile and a half would have proved beyond even him.
Yes, for me, he just pips The Brigadier as THE outstanding miler, and yes, he may well have proved too strong for the other "best ever" 10 furlong performers – but for anyone to suggest that he would have beaten the Likes of Sea Bird, Mill Reef, Ribot, Dancing Brave or Nijinsky over their best distance is nothing more than mere conjecture.
Any speculation now is pure conjecture including those speculating that he wouldn’t have got the 12 furlong trip in fine style.
My personal conjecture is that this horse didn’t get, or at least excel at 12 furlongs, but that he was so very, very special and so very much head and shoulders above his peers that he’d probably have beaten them comfortably on good ground over 12 furlongs despite it not being his optimum trip. I’m convinced of it.
Another feather in his cap over the weekend I see. (Unless of course somebody genuinely believes SNA would have over hauled Frankel in another 1.5 furlongs at York.
) It beats me why, but I get the impression that people still don’t realize how unique this horse was. No horse I’ve watched in my lifetime has given me the impression that it was unbeatable over its optimum trip. Imho Frankel WAS unbeatable over a mile.
He wouldn’t have been beaten even if somebody had unearthed a blue police telephone box with horse transporting facilities.
Greatest flat race horse ever? Absolutely, no question!
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/f3e4a08f-c738-437a-8e8b-29a2ee93dd04_zps3a4dd37f.jpg
This
Been looking through the entries for this and On His Own is definitely the most likely winner for me. However, one I think is overpriced is Tom Taaffe’s
Ninetieth Minute
, who ran a nice race behind the same owners Treacle last time out. He hasn’t got the greatest jumping record but at 100/1 with Bet Victor I think he might be worth an interest.
Thanks for the recommendation. I took a look at him. There’d be worse bets than EW 6 places at 100s. As mentioned earlier, I normally prefer backing a handful of horses win only, but yours looks the type who might well run on into a place.
First thing that struck me on watching a few of his races was his quirky head and tail carriage, especially the tail. He seems a very honest horse though, but one where a sympathetic jockey would get the best out of him. McNamara did well last time on him till he drew his whip at which point the horse seemed to fold.
On the downside, he doesn’t seem that brave – he took a few bumps in that big field behind Colbert Station which seemed to unsettle him. Still, he kept on from a very long way back.
He’s a careful jumper who tries to look after himself, so he’ll either pick his way nicely round Aintree or decide early it ain’t for him.
If he survives the first circuit, I’d say you’d have every chance of landing place money and if there’s to be another Mon Mome, well …
Interesting that on his only run outside Ireland he won at the Cheltenham festival, landing the Coral Cup off a mark of 140 in 2009.
Good luck
JoeTotesport/Betfred, the only one going 20s Join Together and I’m pretty sure he’s overpriced at that and would advise a bet.
Teaforthree also high on my shortlist: both horses can be forgiven poor last runs. Why Nicholls sent JT over 3 miles at Donny Lord knows – he’d need 5 miles at that track. Not such an obvious excuse for T43, but I’m always happy to allow a decent horse one bad run.
I’ve had a few bets (win only) as usual. I prefer to bet half a dozen to win than 3 EW in the National.
In order of preference:
Join Together
Teaforthree
Colbert Station
Quel Esprit
Saint AreWorth remembering they’re committed to watering if necessary to get ground on soft side of good. My guess is they will make it closer to soft for safety reasons. That gives the likes of Join Together & Teaforthree a boost, especially JT who is brimming with stamina but has a dash of quality too. Could go off at around 12s imo
I like Imperial Commander a lot, but I don’t see him as a National type. He is quite heavy-topped and can also be keen. As much chance of pulling up as completing imo.
Just looking down the list, a lot of horses at the front of the market seem very short for what they’ve done, not least the favourite, who also goes there with the memory of a bad fall at Becher’s.
Quel Esprit at 50s is about 3 times the price he should be imo.
J17 Star
‘Hype’ seems to be one of your favourite tropes – wasn’t it you who accused me of hyping The New One some months ago?
As one whose secondary obsession is a constant demand for ‘evidence’, your certainty that CC doesn’t stay 3 miles is laughable.
As for most of the rest of your assertions, I refer you to my signature line.
Joe
Cracking post Sea Pigeon; I hope the race turns out as exciting as you predict.
Lee, I saw your post on the other forum. I’ll reply here to save clutter.
For all I’m a big Cue Card fan, I don’t think I tried to conclude anything through analysis, I just laid out the facts without drawing any conclusions.
As for what would have happened at Ascot had Captain Chris not made that error, you are correct, nobody can know what would have happened. The analyst who wrote the post race report in the Racing Post said he believed Cap Chris would have prevailed. I posted that I thought this the biggest blunder I’d ever seen from a professional race reader.
Any objective assessor of that race would have seen exactly what I saw–one horse who had been under strong pressure from the third last against one whose jockey had done nothing but change hands. The RP had the good grace, after the Ryanair, to admit that their Ascot summary had almost certainly been wrong.
Still, at least we agree that Cue Card, at worst, should be 2nd at Aintree.
JoeSteve, those are fair points all round. It wasn’t a great Ryanair though the key drawback for FL in my opinion, was that he was not running over his best trip. He is thoroughly exposed but on the upside, he is consistent and high class.
Those factors helped make CC my nap of the meeting.
And even, as you rightly say, with my hat and scarf on (not to mention one of those swingable ratchet things) it is very difficult to make a case for CC beating SS.
I always try to make my betting as objective as possible, otherwise the poor house awaits. But at 7/4 to finish 2nd, I can get a profit from the bet because he is over priced compared with Flemenstar.
The only reason I won’t be having a serious bet is that I don’t trust horses who have run at the festival to produce their best at Aintree.
I know there are figures debunking this supposed myth, but I’d rather trust my own experience. SS could of course suffer from this, and indeed I think he is more likely to than CC is. Had CC not run at the festival, I’d bet him each way with great confidence.
On the downside too for him is the huge gap in ratings.
On the upside, he is nailed on to get the trip, his build should give him an advantage over his 2 key rivals round the Mildmay, especially Flemenstar who is unproven there. It is a much tighter track than many think, as Denman and Imperial Commander discovered to their cost.
Finally, and still being as objective as I can, I think Cue Card is capable of considerably better than he has shown. It’s hard for me to convince anyone that this is not fanboy stuff, but since his fencing debut, I’ve thought him something special.
I see PPower go 7 Cue Card and 4 Flemenstar – it should be the other way round in my book and even with 6 runners, I think Cue Card is well worth an EW bet.
Flemenstar’s connections have (albeit some time ago) said that he might not react well to travelling. He is 2lbs inferior to Cue Card on official ratings. He did not finish off his race last time, with connections blaming a lung infection. He has been in just two close battles and lost them. Cue Card has been in one when he went down by a nose to the Gold Cup winner to whom he was conceding half a stone.
It’s a monster task for Cue Card to beat Sprinter Sacre, but he should not be a 7/1 chance to do so in what is effectively a 3 horse race imo.
After his Cheltenham display, I’d want to see SS put in an error-free round before considering him a betting proposition at 1/4 in any race, let alone a hot Melling Chase. I’ve a feeling that the QM took much more out of Sprinter Sacre than some might think. BG had no trouble pulling him up (Sizing Europe took longer to pull up). And I believe SS’s jumping style uses up a fair bit of energy.
We shall see. Let’s hope all three turn up.
Just an update on my previous post: it now looks like Cue Card will go for The Melling Chase. It should be a cracking race. I see PPower go 7 Cue Card and 4 Flemenstar – it should be the other way round in my book and even with 6 runners, I think Cue Card is well worth an EW bet.
As mentioned, Flemenstar might not react well to travelling. He is 2 lbs inferior on official ratings. He did not finish off his race last time, with connections blaming a lung infection. He has been in just two close battles and lost them. Cue Card has been in one when he went down by a nose to the Gold Cup winner to whom he was conceding half a stone.
Still, both horses might well be examples of what I mentioned in my last post – excellent travellers who don’t find much off the bridle.
Anyway, it’s a monster task for Cue Card to beat Sprinter Sacre, but he should not be a 7/1 chance to do so in what is effectively a 3 horse race imo.
After his Cheltenham display, I’d want to see SS put in an error-free round before considering him a betting proposition at 1/4 in any race, let alone a hot Melling Chase.
) 