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Steve, those are fair points all round. It wasn’t a great Ryanair though the key drawback for FL in my opinion, was that he was not running over his best trip. He is thoroughly exposed but on the upside, he is consistent and high class.
Those factors helped make CC my nap of the meeting.
And even, as you rightly say, with my hat and scarf on (not to mention one of those swingable ratchet things) it is very difficult to make a case for CC beating SS.
I always try to make my betting as objective as possible, otherwise the poor house awaits. But at 7/4 to finish 2nd, I can get a profit from the bet because he is over priced compared with Flemenstar.
The only reason I won’t be having a serious bet is that I don’t trust horses who have run at the festival to produce their best at Aintree.
I know there are figures debunking this supposed myth, but I’d rather trust my own experience. SS could of course suffer from this, and indeed I think he is more likely to than CC is. Had CC not run at the festival, I’d bet him each way with great confidence.
On the downside too for him is the huge gap in ratings.
On the upside, he is nailed on to get the trip, his build should give him an advantage over his 2 key rivals round the Mildmay, especially Flemenstar who is unproven there. It is a much tighter track than many think, as Denman and Imperial Commander discovered to their cost.
Finally, and still being as objective as I can, I think Cue Card is capable of considerably better than he has shown. It’s hard for me to convince anyone that this is not fanboy stuff, but since his fencing debut, I’ve thought him something special.
Not sure which thread this should be in as there’s a very similar one over in the main section so…
Fairly selective analysis there Joe re Cue Card’s likely superior battling qualities compared to Sprinter Sacre and Flemenstar.
I’m not saying either of them would come out on top if it came to that (as I have no idea) but to suggest Cue Card would be the one most suited seems a bit strange.
I like many were there when he came swinging on the bridle in the Supreme Novices only to find little and he was quickly brushed aside when push came to shove by Menorah in the International.
We’ll never know how he wouuld have got on against Captain Chris had that one not clouted the 2nd last in the Betfair and admirable as his defeat was when beating by Bob’s Worth, beaten he was.
Those races may have no meaning whatsoever in relation to future races – just as Flemenstar’s two recent defeats over a trip too long will most likely have little bearing on his finshing prowess when reverted back to 2m 4f.
For what it’s worth, in my opinion the race finishes 1. Sprinter Sacre (without coming off the bridle), 2. Cue Card and PU. Flemenstar after never getting into contention.
Too much doubts about the latter horse, such as recent health scare, concerns about his ability to travel and how he would handle quicker ground should it indeed dry out significantly – the only time he’s won on ground described as good or better was the Powers Gold Cup which recorded a time 15s slower than standard.
All that make Cue Card pretty much a certainty for 2nd at worst and if RaceBets (who price up daily match bets) go anything like evens or above in a Cue Card v Flemenstar match I’ll be wading in.
Lee
I recall Masterminded going off a very short priced favourite for this race after his demolition job at Cheltenham and getting well beaten by Voy Por Ustedes. Will history repeat itself?
Sprinter Sacre will need to be at his best to win as the race will be run at a furious pace so any jumping errors will be heavily punished.Flemenstar is in my view every bit as good a jumper as Sprinter Sacre and if he makes all the running as he did in recent victories and runs up to his best (his best may be considerably better than show as he has won all his races without being extended over this trip) then it will take an exceptional performance to beat him.
For me Cue Card put up the most impressive chase performance at the festival, he would have beaten Sprinter Sacre’s opposition in the 2 miler just as easily as Sprinter Sacre did, if his jumping holds together at the likely frenetic pace he will be a big danger to the other two.
The way I see the race panning out is with Flemenstar making the the running jumping effortlessly at a relentless pace with Cue Card in close attendance and Sprinter Sacre sitting 4 or 5 lengths behind. With three fences to go Cue Card moves alongside Flemenstar to make his challenge, but Flemenstar isn’t stopping and is still travelling strongly with Barry Geraghty sitting motionless behind them both waiting to make his move.
At the second last Flemenstar and Cue Card jump the fence together, there is nothing between them and both are still on the bridle, meanwhile Sprinter Sacre has narrowed the gap to two lengths and still hasn’t asked for an effort.
Coming down to to the last Sprinter Sacre joins the other two and three of them jump the fence in unison. They are all still travelling strongly, it’s still anybodies race, those who took the 2/5 about Sprinter are getting a little worried, those who backed Flemenstar or Cue Card have had a tremendous thrill and might still win the race.
On the run in the three of them are inseperable, Cue Card is on the far side, with Flemenstar in the middle and the Sprinter coming up the stand side. With 200 yards to go it’s still anyone’s race……………so what would your odds in running be at this stage?
Cracking post Sea Pigeon; I hope the race turns out as exciting as you predict.
Lee, I saw your post on the other forum. I’ll reply here to save clutter.
For all I’m a big Cue Card fan, I don’t think I tried to conclude anything through analysis, I just laid out the facts without drawing any conclusions.
As for what would have happened at Ascot had Captain Chris not made that error, you are correct, nobody can know what would have happened. The analyst who wrote the post race report in the Racing Post said he believed Cap Chris would have prevailed. I posted that I thought this the biggest blunder I’d ever seen from a professional race reader.
Any objective assessor of that race would have seen exactly what I saw–one horse who had been under strong pressure from the third last against one whose jockey had done nothing but change hands. The RP had the good grace, after the Ryanair, to admit that their Ascot summary had almost certainly been wrong.
Still, at least we agree that Cue Card, at worst, should be 2nd at Aintree.
Joeif they all turn up this is gonna be a cracker in my opion sprintre sacre is one of the the best chasers ever but if you were to ask me to name a horse which has the raw ability beat him i would say flemenstar
With CC and SS having gone to chelt I am going to side with Flemenstar. Horse is class up against possibly the 2 best 2 – 2 1/2 milers. Good ground would be in SS favour i think.
Cant have SS over 2 1/2 … NH says he will stay and he might do. If he was so sure they why not run him over further … we will see.
not the biggest fan of this race coming at this time of the season with horses that have raced on bottomless ground all year – would have much preferred them all to go to the same race @ chelt. 4 day festival has put an end to that
Worries about the sharp track and the possibility of firmer ground makes me just hope they all come back safe and sound
Was hoping to find out if the race still features these 3 but it’s the only race with no details on the card yet … anyone any idea when the entries will be revealed and why they aren’t there already as all the other races on Friday have the full listings???
I will be more than a little surprised if Cue Card or Flemenstar turn up for the race – especially if Sprinter Sacre is a confirmed runner.
Even if they they do, their only hope of them winning is wholly dependent on Sprinter Sacre tipping up.
Another exercise canter and facile victory for Henderson’s superstar is he most likely outcome, no matter the opposition.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I will be more than a little surprised if Cue Card or Flemenstar turn up for the race – especially if Sprinter Sacre is a confirmed runner.
Even if they they do, their only hope of them winning is wholly dependent on Sprinter Sacre tipping up.
Another exercise canter and facile victory for Henderson’s superstar is he most likely outcome, no matter the opposition.
I agree SS will sluice in, but this will be the best he’s yet faced.
odds of 1/3 are ridiculous for a horse that is not sure to get the distance in a race that will have more pace than any he has been in before.
This sort of thing happens every year with top class chasers who can win at Cheltenham then get beat here, Denman, Kauto Star, Imperial Commander to name a few.This is the greatest jumps racehorse to have ever graced the hallowed turf, he will win and win at ease once more.
The best April fools day joke I’ve heard today, nice one Sea Pigeon…..
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I love taking on these type of very short priced horses but im feeling cowardly. There is some evidence (but not alot!!) to suggest he could be near that limits of his ideal distance here. Its intriguing.
I have been really impressed with Cue Card on his last two outings but my fear for him is that he will have a brilliant jumper in the form of the Irish horse for company on most of the trip. I foresee a calamity.
SHL
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