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I thought he travelled as well as ever that day until after 3 out when Bowen shook him up and got zero response plus an error two out. It’s possible there was no link to falls and he was just having an off day as even the best sometimes do. It was also his first run overseas. Some don’t like to travel or simply to be away from their routine longer than is normal.
You’re right, LD. I looked again at the Aintree fall – Nico did dit still, the horse came up long (Nico, in another golf analogy, tends to gesture when he realises the horse is in the middle of a bad mistake – he lifts the reins (in the way a golfer waves his putter in the hope of making the just-struck ball go right or left) in a useless wish.
Otherwise, I am not seeing what you are (just a difference in race reading). I consider a horse to be asked up when there is a noticeable body or hands movement. Done properly, it usually only happens when a jock is certain he has seen a stride, and it’s usually initiated by a crouch. Anyway, I doubt a hurdler has ever before been subject to so much scrutiny in jumping. I’d hold to the view he should not run again over hurdles, but would add a caveat: unless they find something that was 90% likely to have been the cause of his errors.
LD73, Impossible to say if Nico is in any way to blame, but from what I learned watching every jump he has taken in public, 95% of the time he is left to make his own mind up. That means he’ll throw the occasional long one, but he gets there. He races quite keenly, though doesn’t fight, and his demeanour in that dept leads me to think he’s quite a nervy type.
Most of his standard jumps are exactly that – he makes a regular shape, isn’t slick, long, or short and seems to be happy jumping that way, possibly because it feels safe. If they run him again over hurdles, what is Nico faced with? If he sits absolutely still, which the horse seems to prefer, and something goes wrong he’ll be accused of giving the horse no help. If he tries taking charge and bossing Constitution Hill and goes down again, he’ll be condemned. Loyal as connections are, if they have another go, a jockey change would seem appropriate. I’d love to see Jack Kennedy ride him.
I watched all Constitution Hill races: conclusion: he must be left alone at jumps: each fall has come from a jockey manoeuvre pre take-off. Keen, nervy – at first hurdle Punchestown after 2 falls, he went so high Bowen was up his neck: he’s remembering falls.
Though often slick, just as often careful with biggish jumps. On 1st Cheltenham run he stepped at the last on first circuit in identical fashion to later errors. Might be nothing, but he always carries head to left.
Here’s a very interesting analysis by ex Irish jock Paddy Flood (won the 2008 Irish Grand National) Now jockey coach. Long story short, he blames Nico. https://x.com/irishracing/status/1995819450604335154?s=20
6/1 Mr Vango appeals greatly. I’d have him a 7/2 chance. But I must stick to my vow of waiting for final decs!
This Constitution Hill story’s getting like a crime mystery. If he hates jumping those hurdles, why continue doing so while loose – flying them too?
Horses are famously senstive to the emotions of those close to them and it would be impossible for Nico, or any other jock, to approach a hurdle on the horse with a mind totally free of anxiety.
Well said, johnzero. Stories like hers are what first got me into NH racing, They’ll be the ones I miss most when the sport shuts its doors. There’s a fine piece on Jeremy Scott in the Post – free to read at the time of writing.. https://www.racingpost.com/news/features/the-big-read/it-was-the-lowest-ive-ever-been-struggling-to-see-the-light-and-within-a-few-months-weve-won-the-champion-hurdle-amLrM9d9Sdth/
I don’t understand why Hendo is ruling out fences, apparently due to the potential danger. They are sufficiently different disciplines to make it well worth a try. It’s like assuming a struggling squash champion shouldn’t try tennis.
BTW, Mike Cattermole just mentioned on X that it’s rumoured Constitution Hill fell schooling yesterday.
Good points. I don’t know about horses, but what would catch my eye are the drainage holes in the face of the hurdle, laid out in no obvious pattern.
Well done winners. She’s a classic example of a fast improving mare so extra well done to Bobby taking 410 for the King George – no forlorn hope in that if she recovers in time.
T’would be fences for Constitution Hill were he mine. He has the equivalent of golfer yips over hurdles.
14s Golden Ace tempting enough for March – she’s a better mare than last season and there’s probably more to come. Still think Ballbyburn worth chancing at 33. Am not convinced Mullins believes Lossiemouth is a 2-miler.
Market saying loudly that my choice Annual Invictus has no chance. I’ll be happy if he’s in the first 6. I’ve added Resplendent Grey – good luck.
I think it’s pound for pound the most ignored key factor in punting. Horses run huge races, seemingly bolstering their form, thus reducing their price for future events. But huge races take huge tolls unless you have a very rare horse.
Two good examples from last season were Broadway Boy, 2nd in Hennessy after leading for a long way and battling back three times (beaten at odds on next time, then PU in Ultima). Then Brighterdaysahead with that massive Leopardstown run – never got within a stone of it in her following two runs.
I’m sure there’ll be more.
I recall Hen Knight saying Best Mate ideally wanted 6 weeks between races, no matter how easily he had won.
