[shmeeko69]

It’s quite open this year & that’s were you can spot a good value bet.

I think Del Potro has a good chance but there’s not much value now as the
bookies have adjusted their books due to his US Open win.

Davydenko & Soderling are coming on strong & both like the surface, but I think the best value bet lies with Verdasco.

He’s just thumped Djokovic in the Aussie warm up tournament, he likes the surface & he narrowly lost out in the semi’s last year in a class, to the eventual winner Nadal.

He a crazy 50/1 with four of the top bookmakers & I’ll be placing a little tenner on him before the odds shrink, as I think he’s more than capable.

Verdasco 50/1 at Stan James[/url:1ahxsnni] ~ William Hill[/url:1ahxsnni] ~ Extrabet[/url:1ahxsnni] ~ Paddypower[/url:1ahxsnni].

[shmeeko69]

Now that Nikolay Davydenko actually appears to be trying in his matches – he’s been suspected of match-fixing on more than one occasion – I’m prepared to risk a reasonable amount at the general 10/1.

Maran Cilic is also interesting at 53/1.

I think Verdasco also offers a good value bet at a crazy 50/1 at a few of the top bookmakers – Stan James, Extrabet, Coral & Paddypower.

He’s just thumped Djokovic in the warm up tournament, he likes the surface & he got to the semi’s last year, narrowly getting beat in a classic, to the eventual winner
Nadal.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

When will we see the jumps racing again ?

I’m sick of this terrible weather & the
AW racing & badly need conditions to change.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

When will the racing be on again & why is the so
called AW not all weather anymore ??

Horses & Jockey’s are all zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Mark

[shmeeko69]

I was’nt aware that Barney was diabetic,
although he’s a fair bit overweight like
most darts players.

Like you say the longer format won’t really
suit him & if he’s pressured he may crumble.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win only selection & not the most
original bet I’ve ever made.

14:50 WARWICK 2M 4F H’CAP CHASE 2M 4F SOFT

CARRICKMINES 3.7 BACK (WIN ONLY)

Win Adv. – Distance
Ground Condtions
Class
Recent Form

Win Disadv. – Weight
Trainer Course Win Record
Jockey Booking

Mark

[shmeeko69]

I think the ex world no.1 Colin Lloyd offers a reasonable value bet of 7/4 with
Stan James[/url:204zlaaj]. Baxter is in better form & swept past Anderson in the last round, but
Lloyd on his day, Is a match for most players.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win & place selection.

14:50 TAUNTON CLASS 4 H’CAP CHASE 2M 7F SOFT

LAVENOAK LAD 8.2 BACK | 2.54 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

Win & Place Adv. – Ground Conditions
Distance
Horse Recent Form

Win & Place Disadv – Trainer Overall Form

I think Lavenoak Lad & Ultimate Limit will fight it out & the chosen horse offers a reasonal bet at 8.2 back & 2.54 e/way.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

You’d be surprised how many players match Taylor’s competition averages in practice – the difference is he transfers back-room form to the stage.

Anderson usually improves for getting through the first round, but he meets Ronnie Baxter next and I wouldn’t be keen on backing him at odds-on. Indeed, Baxter is a cracking bet to beat him at 2/1 (as is Van der Voort to topple Painter at 5/4).

Again your spot on – His mate Gary Robson who still plays in the BDO said that this guy is the best player he has ever seen in practise, but he can’t quite seem to transfer onto the big stage with the TV cameras & crowds, so the realistic threats to Taylor are Wade & Barnie, who on their best form are superb darts players.

If I place my £100 bet would I back Taylor at 4/11 at Boylesports ? No I would put £50 on Wade & £50 on Barney both at 10/1 with SkyBet, as this would give me a double chance at more realistic odds & therefore offer better value – It’s all about the value bet !

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Analysing the race again, If it goes ahead – I think that Deep Purple is the value e/way bet at 9/4 with various bookmakers – Betfred, Boylesports, Bet365, Paddypower, Stan James ………

Assuming Kauto Star wins or places, that leaves us with
twelve other potential horses & of that I’ve able to eliminate six of them, which leaves us with six.

I know a 33% chance of placing at odds of 9/4 does’nt sound like good maths – But I think Imperial Commander, Madison Du Berlais, Barber Shop & our chosen Horse Deep Purple will fight it out for 2nd & 3rd spot with Nacarat & Albertas Run following in about 6th & 7th position.

So after doing all the data crunching I thought he has 13/8 chance of the places & therefore 9/4 is a reasonable value bet.

So my 80/20 bet for the King George VI Chase is with Deep Purple – £20 at 14/1 & £80 at 9/4.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

What a shocking ride from an experienced jockey like Jim Crowley.

I’m totally baffled why he came out of the stalls, as if it was a 5f sprint & burnt the horse out after 6f !

Based on the last race when Seb Sanders was on board, he was unlucky not to win over a longer distance on the same track & a better race class 5.

The mind boggles ………….

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Gary ‘Big Stage Bottle Job’ Anderson is the only real threat to Taylor? I’ll lay that bet all day long.

Seconded. If anyone isn’t a threat to Taylor it’s Gary ‘Where’s the finish line’ Anderson.

His defeat at the hands of Scott Waites in the GSOD was so predictable; the going got tough – he never fancied it…again.

Pundits, fans and even the man himself will tell you he’s the flawed genius type in the Ronnie O’Sullivan mould if you like; doesn’t like practicing, gets bored easily and it’s only his talent that gets him through. But in reality he’s just a bottle job, as you say, and he knows it all too well IMO.

Apparently Anderson is meant to be as good as Taylor in practise, constantly getting 180’s & high finishes & averages of 115+, but like you say he does’nt get over the finishing line that often & that must be very frustrating for someone with his talent. I think it’s psychological & once there’s tv cameras & crowds, he turns to jelly.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win & place selection.

14:25 SOUTHWELL CLASS 6 H’CAP STD/SLOW 1M 4F

OKE BAY 9.4 BACK | 3.3 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

Win & Place Adv. – Class
Distance
Ground Conditions
Trainer 3yo Course Win Record

Win & Place Disadv. – Weight

I think this horse offers excellent value & I expect Oke Bay & Altos Reales to fight it out. I don’t think the market has got the odds right with this one. Oke bay 9.4 to back & 3.3 e/way.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

I don’t think Corm will be overly pleased with your use of free bet links, shmeeko, but you could have limited your list of likely winners to just one name.

Barneveld and Wade are the only players capable of going toe-to-toe with Taylor in the longer format, but with the former still (bizarrely) struggling with his confidence and the latter far less consistent since his affiliation with Helen Chamberlain, the way looks paved for The Power to steam-roller his way to success.

I’d be far more keen to take the 9/4 about a nine dart finish, as King, Wade, Klaasen, Barneveld and Taylor are all frighteningly good when in full flow.

Thanks for informing me Media Gecko – It’s all about Taylor v the rest mainly Barnie, Wade & Anderson.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win only selection.

13:40 LUDLOW CLASS 3 H’CAP CHASE 2M SOFT

RUSSIAN FLAG 3.70 BACK (WIN ONLY)

Win Adv. – Distance
Ground Conditions
Trainer Recent Form

Win Disadv. – Weight
Trainer Overall Win Form

The chosen horse should be up there & although he’s up
12 pound from his last victory, should still be the one to beat.
Reasonable win only bet of 3.70 to back.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win & place selection.

17:50 KEMPTON CLASS 5 MDN 1M STD

MING MASTER 6.2 BACK | 2.16 E/WAY

The chosen horse looked as if he needed a longer distance
last time out at 7f & looks to go better this time over a mile.
Siding with the Haggas horse over Sasheen the Boyle horse
because of his each way record on the AW. Reasonable
value for Ming Master of 6.2 to back & 2.16 e/way.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win & place selection.

15:10 PLUMPTON CLASS 5 H’CAP CHASE 2M 4F SOFT

ALDERBROOK GIRL 12.0 BACK | 3.20 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

Win & Place Adv. – Ground Conditions
Distance
Trainer Recent Form

Win & Place Disadv. – Weight
Trainer Overall E/way Form

I think Alderbrook Girl represents a good value bet at 12.0 to
back & 3.20 e/way.

Mark

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