[shmeeko69]

Todays win & place selection.

13:55 DONCASTER CLASS4 H’CAP HURDLE 2M GD-SFT

LA SARRAZINE 12.5 BACK | 2.56 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

Win & Place Adv. – Ground Conditions
Distance
Weight
Trainer Hurdle Win Record

Win & Place Disadv. – Trainer E/way Record

I think La Sarrazine offers good value in this race as there are
only five horses with genuine changes. 12.5 to back & 2.56 e/way.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Murray will beat Cilic
Federer will beat Tsonga

There, simple !

So who do think will win the final – Federer ?

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Today win only selection & not my most original bet
I’ve ever made.

14:20 WARWICK CLASS4 2M H’CAP CHASE SOFT

CARRICKMINES 3.35 BACK (WIN ONLY)

Win Adv. – Ground Conditions
Distance
Course Characteristics

Win Disadv. – Trainer Course Record

This looks quite a straightforward race & I think the only danger
lies with Pret A Thou. Good value to back Carrickmines 3.35.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

She doesn’t bother me either way, although I get your point at the his mother.

I think Cilic has a chance but has had to get through two five set matches, where as Murray has had a much smoother path & should be fitter & I think that’s reflected in his book price.

I honestly didn’t fancy Murray at the start of the tournament, but maybe could be embarrassingly the first british male player to win a grand slam in seventy four years.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

I maintain that Roger Federer is the man to beat. If he brings anything approaching his "A" game to the proceedings, the rest may as well stay at home.

If he’s on his a game then yes, but he’s still got to get past a determined Davydenko & Murray playing awesome tennis as well, so it still wide open

Mark

[shmeeko69]

With bets on Marin Cilic at 53/1 and greater, I’m afraid I won’t be supporting Andy Murray’s quest for Australian Open glory. He certainly goes in to their semi-final the fresher player though, having faced no-one of note until Rafael Nadal this morning; four easy three-set games and a retirement are certainly preferable to two consecutive five-set marathons against the fourth and seventh seeds.

The enigmatic Russian remains by far my biggest interest – a meeting between he and the gangly Croat would certainly make my weekend – and if he’s over yesterday’s exertions he could plough through Roger Federer without so much as a second thought. If he (Davydenko) starts positively and doesn’t allow his opponent time to settle inside the baseline, he’ll win. And what does he have to fear from either Djokovic or Tsonga? Absolutely nothing.

Cilic vs Davydenko final here we come!

Great bet with Cilic at 53’s & still playing well. Congratulations to Murray & in beating Nadal, although he retired.

Maybe Murray is ready to win his first grand slam after all, although I didn’t fancy him at the start of the tournament.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win & place selection.

15:30 SEDGEFIELD CLASS 5 H’CAP HURDLE 2M 4F SOFT

I’M YOUR MAN 8.6 BACK | 2.84 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

Win & Place Adv. – Class
Distance

Win & Place Disadv. – Ground Conditions
Weight

I think the chosen horse I’m Your Man offers reasonable
valu to back at 8.6 & for the places at 2.84. My only concern
is the extra weight over these ground conditions.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Well that’s Murray safely through to the 4th round of the Australian. The biggest surprise for me was how easily Clijsters got beat in the ladies, after her US open victory.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Agree, he’s the best of the best, should have more recognition outside racing but I suppose it’s the same with Phil Taylor in darts in that the sport just isn’t popular enough to warrant it.

He’s got another good book of rides today at Newbury so I’m expecting at least a couple of winners.

Spot on Rich, too much emphasis on twenty two guys kicking a football about for obscene amounts of money.

The way the much maligned media report sport in the UK is, football & then the rest – Tennis, Rugby Horse Racing, Snooker Darts, Cricket …………

McCoy should have been a candidate at least once for sports personality of the year, but he doesn’t kick a ball about.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win & place selection – 80/20 bet.

14:50 NEWCASTLE H’CAP HURDLE CLASS 4 2M 4F SOFT

DELIGHTFULLY 8.0 BACK | 2.74 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

Win & Place Advantages – Weight
Distance
Ground Conditions

Win & Place Disadvantages – Jockey Booking
Trainer Win & Place Record

Quite a hard race to figure out, but I think the chosen horse
Delightfully has reasonable place claims. Reasonable value to
back at 8.0 & e/way 2.74.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Another great ride from AP yesterday on Rapid Increase.

About 4f out the horse looked bustled along & with the O’Neill camp, not firing on all cylinders at present, thought it would lose.

Only McCoy could have won on that horse yeasterday, his timing was immaculate & his endeavour is superb.

What a guy.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Himself aka Shmeeko69

Federer is a slow starter & said that, this would be the most difficult match for him, if he got through until about the 4th round, where he might possibly play Hewitt.

Murray & Davydenko got through quite comfortably & I expect Davydenko to pose a threat in this years tournament.

My outside bet Verdasco had a bit of a struggle & won in four sets.

The big surprise for me was Soderling, getting knocked out in five sets, after being two sets up. He seemed to take his foot of the gas & then couldn’t find another gear when it really mattered.

There will be more twists & turns to come in this tournament & is very difficult to call.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win only selection & again not the
most original bet I’ve ever made.

15:40 FOLKESTONE CLASS 4 H’CAP CHASE 3M 1F SOFT

RAPID INCREASE 2.36 BACK (WIN ONLY)

Win Advantages – Distance
Ground Conditions
Weight
McCoy Factor

Win Disadvantages – Trainer Recent Form
Class ?

I expect McCoy to win again with Rapid Increase & give
O’Neill another winner. Reasonable value at 2.38 to back.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Todays win only selection & not the most original
selection I’ve ever made.

15:10 PLUMPTON CLASS 4 H’CAP CHASE 2M 4F HEAVY

CARRICKMINES 3.05 BACK (WIN ONLY)

Win Advantages – Distance
Ground Conditions
Class
Recent Form

Win Disadvantages – Trainer Course Record
Weight

I think the this pick is the stand out in this mediocre field &
the only one I think may pose a threat is Quarrymount.
Carrickmines – 3.05 to back.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Now that the Masters Snooker is over, I can now switch my attention to the Tennis in Australia.

This years tournament is so wide open & very hard to call, as the top two in Federer & Nadal are definately beatable & therefore leaves us with potential elsewhere.

There are probably about eight players who could pick up this grand slam – Federer, Nadal, Del Potro, Djokovic, Murray & three outsiders – Davydenko, Soderling & Verdasco.

So difficult to call, but exciting never the less.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

I thought it was to good to be true with the 50/1 odds on Verdasco, as all of the four bookmakers have reduced their books to suit & now at 33/1 & 40/1.

Totesport[/url:3sdw1xdt] are now offering 50/1 on Verdasco surprisingly.

Mark

I started backing Verdasco off the back of last years perfomance and it’s fair to say he was crap for the rest of the season; he seemed to lose focus and go back to his bad old ways. However, he does seem to go well first time out and 50’s would seem very big. This time round though, he has a better looking Djokovic around, a different prospect in Del Potro and a rejuvenated Davydenko to negotiate if he’s to make it pay! Basically, it’s alot tougher this year. Good luck with it though!

Whilst I don’t think Verdasco will win it, the point in question is the value & at 50/1 Verdasco is a value bet, especially as there’s no injuries to report, he likes the surface & pushed the eventual winner Nadal in last years semi final.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

I thought it was to good to be true with the 50/1 odds on Verdasco, as all of the four bookmakers have reduced their books to suit & now at 33/1 & 40/1.

Totesport[/url:1t88ngzn] are now offering 50/1 on Verdasco surprisingly.

Mark

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