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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

shmeeko69

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Viewing 17 posts - 188 through 204 (of 210 total)
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  • in reply to: Backing Selection #247728
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Thanks for your kind words Stacelita.
    I really like this forum as majority of people are
    positive & don’t slag each other.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: Backing Selection #247083
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Unusual E/Way bet for today a Maiden Race !! Remember to only
    risk 5% of your Betfair/bookie account.

    2:10 CHEPSTOW CLASS4 1M SOFT

    LAYLINE 4.3 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/WAY Advantages – Trainer % E/Way for 2yo’s
    Pedigree

    E/Way Disadvantages – Unknown Quantity

    I expect the race to be contested between Milnagavie & Crystal Gale,
    but I believe there’s a value e/way bet of 4.3 for first time out Layline.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: Backing Selection #246917
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Here is my E/way selection for today, just hope this one run’s, unlike
    the call off with yesterday’s horse. Remember to only risk 5% of your
    Betfair/bookie account.

    3:40 REDCAR CLASS4 1M GF/GOOD IN PLACES

    CELTIC CHANGE 4.1 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/Way Advantages – Ground Conditions
    Distance
    Weight

    E/Way Disadvantages – Trainer Overall Form

    This is a tricky race to predict & I think the best value bet is with
    Celtic Change. Lakeman would have been another but there’s not
    enough cut in the ground & Daaweitza is an alternative bet e/way at 2.8.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: Backing Selection #246786
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    My e/way selection for today. Remember to only risk 5% of
    your Betfair/bookie account.

    5:10 HEREFORD NOV. H’CAP HURDLE CLASS4 2M 1F GF

    GARAFENA 3.9 E/WAY (4 PLACES)

    E/Way Advantages – Recent Course Win
    Distance
    Ground Conditions
    Jockey

    E/way Disadvantages – Weight
    Trainer Overall Record

    As long as the ground stay’s GF, then I think we’ll be ok for a
    top 4 position. Wait a while for more liquidity to build up with Betfair,
    or you’ll get gapping of the price.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: My Laying Selection ………… #246556
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Today’s Laying selection. Remember to only risk 5% of your
    Betfair/bookie account.

    2:45 HUNTINGDON CLASS4 H’CAP CHASE 2M GF

    TANMEYA 4.5 LAY

    Laying Advantages – Weight
    Ground Conditions
    Course Characteristics
    Jockey

    Laying Disadvantages – Trainer Overall Form
    Distance

    As long as the ground stay’s GF or even Good then, I think the
    horse will struggle to win, with the weight for a Class 4.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: Backing Selection #246244
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    My each way selection for today. Remember to only risk 5% of
    your Betfair/bookie account.

    4:15 THIRSK CLASS 4 H’CAP 2M GOOD

    DANZATRIZE 2.26 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/Way Advantages – Distance
    Weight
    Ground Conditions

    E/Way Disadvantages – Trainer Overall Form

    As long as the ground stay’s good, that will suit the horse & expect it to finish in the top three, with Saga De Tercey the real danger.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: Backing Selection #246234
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Hi cormack15

    Yes your correct & that is why I only lay horses between 1.7 & 4.5 with Betfair & my liability is 5%.

    If I see a horse with short odds & think It should be higher, I will lay the horse, as long as it meet’s my criteria & In reverse for backing, If the horse has high odds & I think they should be shorter & has a good chance of winning, I’ll back it.

    It’s all about value & even although you’ll have your losing days, net net you will make a profit if you can spot a value bet to back or lay !

    Mark :)

    in reply to: Backing Selection #246068
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Today’s backing selection. Remember to only risk 5% of your
    Betfair/bookie account.

    2:50 LINGIELD CLASS 5 1M 2F GF

    WILBURY STAR BACK 6.0

    Backing Advantages – Distance
    Ground Conditions
    Trainer & Jockey Comb.

    Backing Disadvantages – Course Characteristics

    As long as the ground stay’s GF that’ll suit the horse fine &
    I expect the race to be tight – main rival Hawks Eye recent
    winner 1m 2f & GF.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: Backing Selection #245905
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    My each way selection for today. Remember to only risk 5%
    of your Betfair/bookie account.

    3:20 CATTERICK 2M CLASS 5 H’CAP

    SIR SANDICLIFFE 2.56 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/W Advantages – Distance
    Ground Conditions
    Won at Course

    E/W Disadvantages – Weight
    Trainer overall Record

    I expect Spiders Star to win the race, but expect Sir Sandcliffe
    to be placed & as long as the ground remains GS or softer then,
    that’ll suit the horse.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: My Laying Method ……. #245542
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Hi Mogul

    Strangely enough, I’ve never operated a points system. I risk 5% of my Betfair bank on particular races. My criteria is –

    H’cap races only
    8 runners or more
    At least 2 other horses odds less than 10
    Check racing post form guide
    risk 5% of bank

    I have tweaked this from other systems I’ve bought & always return’s a
    reasonable profit weekly/monthly

    Mark :)

    in reply to: My Laying Selection ………… #245540
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    • Total Posts 237

    My lay selection for today. Remember to risk only 5% of your Betfair/bookie account.

    3:50 HAMILTON CLASS 6 1M HEAVY

    MOHAWK RIDGE 3.9 LAY

    Laying Advantages – Ground Conditions
    Days since last race

    Laying Disadvantages – Trainer course form (3yo)
    Distance

    Hopefully there’s more rain which suits us better as layer’s, because the horse is unproven on Soft/Heavy ground.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: Backing Selection #245274
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Pity about my selection, I was a little concerned about the days since it last raced 186 days & proved to be the telling factor – finished last & did’nt want to be there :(

    Probably why I like to be a layer than a backer of horses, there are soo many variables to consider.

    Mark

    in reply to: Backing Selection #245141
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    2:15 YORK GRP 3 CLASS 1 STAKES 1M 208Y

    RUSSIAN SAGE WIN 7.8 – E/W 2.20 (3 PLACES) BETFAIR

    Backing advantages – Horse’s overall form
    Distance
    Going

    Backing Disadvantages – Days since last race
    Bounced last time out
    Weight ?

    If you don’t have a Betfair account then click the link below for a free £25 bet !

    Mark :)
    _________________

    in reply to: RUK and Virgin media #244767
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Whilst It’s important to have access to live & repeated racing, I cannot justify another £20 a month add on, to go with new charges from related companies & therefore will just make do with live streaming.

    Mark :)

    in reply to: RUK and Virgin media #244540
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Yes it’s all getting a bit ridiculous & I’m certainly not paying another £20 a month for Racing UK, on top of my package deal that I have with Virgin.
    Is it just me or are companies now introducing all these add ons & extra charges – Betfair, Racing Post, Racing UK …………….

    When will It all stop ??

    Mark :oops:

    in reply to: My Laying Method ……. #244538
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    Thanks for your kind words….. I have been using that methodology for well over a year now & stick to it through thick & thin & has returned a decent profit. The key is DISCIPLINE & never blindly follow the crowd !

    Mark :)

    in reply to: My Laying Method ……. #243858
    Avatar photoshmeeko69
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    • Total Posts 237

    My lay for today is as follows. Remember to only risk 5% of your Betfair or Bookie account.

    NOTTINGHAM 2:35 6F FILLIES H’CAP CLASS 4

    HIGH ACHIEVED 3.05 LAY

    Laying Advantages – CLASS
    WEIGHT
    GOING ?

    Laying Disadvantages – DISTANCE
    TRAINER 3yo STATS

    If there’s no rain today at Nottingham, then the course could get a little firmer & that would suit the selected horse, if it stays Good & not GF then all the better !

    Mark :)

Viewing 17 posts - 188 through 204 (of 210 total)