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Backing Selection

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Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 26 total)
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  • #12373
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Today’s Backing Selection. Remember on a Back bet to risk only 5% of your Betfair or Bookie account.

    BEVERLEY 2:10 1M 4F SELL. H’CAP CLASS 6

    SAFFRON’S SON 8.8 BACK

    ADVANTAGES – COURSE EXPERIENCE
    WEIGHT
    DISTANCE

    DISADVANTAGES – TRAINER RECORD
    GOING ?

    If the track gets any firmer & changes from Good to Good to firm then that will suit the horse even better.

    Cheers

    Mark :)

    #245141
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    2:15 YORK GRP 3 CLASS 1 STAKES 1M 208Y

    RUSSIAN SAGE WIN 7.8 – E/W 2.20 (3 PLACES) BETFAIR

    Backing advantages – Horse’s overall form
    Distance
    Going

    Backing Disadvantages – Days since last race
    Bounced last time out
    Weight ?

    If you don’t have a Betfair account then click the link below for a free £25 bet !

    Mark :)
    _________________

    #245274
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Pity about my selection, I was a little concerned about the days since it last raced 186 days & proved to be the telling factor – finished last & did’nt want to be there :(

    Probably why I like to be a layer than a backer of horses, there are soo many variables to consider.

    Mark

    #245905
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    My each way selection for today. Remember to only risk 5%
    of your Betfair/bookie account.

    3:20 CATTERICK 2M CLASS 5 H’CAP

    SIR SANDICLIFFE 2.56 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/W Advantages – Distance
    Ground Conditions
    Won at Course

    E/W Disadvantages – Weight
    Trainer overall Record

    I expect Spiders Star to win the race, but expect Sir Sandcliffe
    to be placed & as long as the ground remains GS or softer then,
    that’ll suit the horse.

    Mark :)

    #246068
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Today’s backing selection. Remember to only risk 5% of your
    Betfair/bookie account.

    2:50 LINGIELD CLASS 5 1M 2F GF

    WILBURY STAR BACK 6.0

    Backing Advantages – Distance
    Ground Conditions
    Trainer & Jockey Comb.

    Backing Disadvantages – Course Characteristics

    As long as the ground stay’s GF that’ll suit the horse fine &
    I expect the race to be tight – main rival Hawks Eye recent
    winner 1m 2f & GF.

    Mark :)

    #246073
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8992

    Hi shmeek – enjoying this thread.

    One thought occured to me though – aren’t there just as many variables to consider when laying horses as when backing them?

    #246234
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Hi cormack15

    Yes your correct & that is why I only lay horses between 1.7 & 4.5 with Betfair & my liability is 5%.

    If I see a horse with short odds & think It should be higher, I will lay the horse, as long as it meet’s my criteria & In reverse for backing, If the horse has high odds & I think they should be shorter & has a good chance of winning, I’ll back it.

    It’s all about value & even although you’ll have your losing days, net net you will make a profit if you can spot a value bet to back or lay !

    Mark :)

    #246244
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    My each way selection for today. Remember to only risk 5% of
    your Betfair/bookie account.

    4:15 THIRSK CLASS 4 H’CAP 2M GOOD

    DANZATRIZE 2.26 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/Way Advantages – Distance
    Weight
    Ground Conditions

    E/Way Disadvantages – Trainer Overall Form

    As long as the ground stay’s good, that will suit the horse & expect it to finish in the top three, with Saga De Tercey the real danger.

    Mark :)

    #246786
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    My e/way selection for today. Remember to only risk 5% of
    your Betfair/bookie account.

    5:10 HEREFORD NOV. H’CAP HURDLE CLASS4 2M 1F GF

    GARAFENA 3.9 E/WAY (4 PLACES)

    E/Way Advantages – Recent Course Win
    Distance
    Ground Conditions
    Jockey

    E/way Disadvantages – Weight
    Trainer Overall Record

    As long as the ground stay’s GF, then I think we’ll be ok for a
    top 4 position. Wait a while for more liquidity to build up with Betfair,
    or you’ll get gapping of the price.

    Mark :)

    #246917
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Here is my E/way selection for today, just hope this one run’s, unlike
    the call off with yesterday’s horse. Remember to only risk 5% of your
    Betfair/bookie account.

    3:40 REDCAR CLASS4 1M GF/GOOD IN PLACES

    CELTIC CHANGE 4.1 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/Way Advantages – Ground Conditions
    Distance
    Weight

    E/Way Disadvantages – Trainer Overall Form

    This is a tricky race to predict & I think the best value bet is with
    Celtic Change. Lakeman would have been another but there’s not
    enough cut in the ground & Daaweitza is an alternative bet e/way at 2.8.

    Mark :)

    #247083
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Unusual E/Way bet for today a Maiden Race !! Remember to only
    risk 5% of your Betfair/bookie account.

    2:10 CHEPSTOW CLASS4 1M SOFT

    LAYLINE 4.3 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/WAY Advantages – Trainer % E/Way for 2yo’s
    Pedigree

    E/Way Disadvantages – Unknown Quantity

    I expect the race to be contested between Milnagavie & Crystal Gale,
    but I believe there’s a value e/way bet of 4.3 for first time out Layline.

    Mark :)

    #247472
    Stacelita
    Member
    • Total Posts 202

    8) Nice 1 I missed it though :(

    #247728
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Thanks for your kind words Stacelita.
    I really like this forum as majority of people are
    positive & don’t slag each other.

    Mark :)

    #247730
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Today’s each way is a bit of a punt & once again
    it’s a Maiden race ! Remember to only risk 5% of
    your Betfair/bookie account.

    2:30 NEWCASTLE CLASS5 6F GS

    KELLYS EYE 5.7 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/way Advantages – Trainer 2yo e/way %
    Good Pedigree

    E/way Disadvantages – Unknown Quantity

    Whilst I expect the race to be contested between Aalsmeer &
    Love Delta, I expect a challenge from Namecheck & our horse
    Kellys Eye & at 5.7 e/way 45.0 to win, I think represent’s a
    value bet.

    Mark :)

    #247862
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    My e/way selection for today is once again a Maiden Race.
    Remember to only risk 5% of your Betfair/bookie account.

    1:50 SEDGEFIELD CLASS4 MDN HURDLE 2M 1F

    MESBAAH 4.5 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/way Advantages – Trainer Hurdle % e/way
    Trainer Course Record

    E/way Disadavntages – Unknown Over Hurdles
    Flat Form

    Whilst I expect Mcmurdo Sound with A P McCoy on board &
    Timocracy to fight it out, I think Mesbaah might have an e/way
    chance & is good value at 4.5 e/way or 27 to back.

    Mark :)

    #247867
    silkyuk9
    Member
    • Total Posts 44

    My e/way selection for today is once again a Maiden Race.
    Remember to only risk 5% of your Betfair/bookie account.

    1:50 SEDGEFIELD CLASS4 MDN HURDLE 2M 1F

    MESBAAH 4.5 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

    E/way Advantages – Trainer Hurdle % e/way
    Trainer Course Record

    E/way Disadavntages – Unknown Over Hurdles
    Flat Form

    Whilst I expect Mcmurdo Sound with A P McCoy on board &
    Timocracy to fight it out, I think Mesbaah might have an e/way
    chance & is good value at 4.5 e/way or 27 to back.

    Mark :)

    Great e/w bet there, 2nd at around 20/1 well done

    #247886
    shmeeko69
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Thanks for your kind words Silkyu9.

    As i mentioned on my analysis, that Richard Fahey
    has a 38% e/way for 4yo+ & a 36% win rate for Hurdles
    at Sedgefield & therefore thought it offered good value.

    I never blindly follow the money, as it’s the quickest way
    to the poor house.

    Mark :mrgreen:

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