Backing Selection

[shmeeko69]

Today’s Backing Selection. Remember on a Back bet to risk only 5% of your Betfair or Bookie account.

BEVERLEY 2:10 1M 4F SELL. H’CAP CLASS 6

SAFFRON’S SON 8.8 BACK

ADVANTAGES – COURSE EXPERIENCE
WEIGHT
DISTANCE

DISADVANTAGES – TRAINER RECORD
GOING ?

If the track gets any firmer & changes from Good to Good to firm then that will suit the horse even better.

Cheers

Mark

[shmeeko69]

2:15 YORK GRP 3 CLASS 1 STAKES 1M 208Y

RUSSIAN SAGE WIN 7.8 – E/W 2.20 (3 PLACES) BETFAIR

Backing advantages – Horse’s overall form
Distance
Going

Backing Disadvantages – Days since last race
Bounced last time out
Weight ?

If you don’t have a Betfair account then click the link below for a free £25 bet !

Mark
_________________

[shmeeko69]

Pity about my selection, I was a little concerned about the days since it last raced 186 days & proved to be the telling factor – finished last & did’nt want to be there

Probably why I like to be a layer than a backer of horses, there are soo many variables to consider.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

My each way selection for today. Remember to only risk 5%
of your Betfair/bookie account.

3:20 CATTERICK 2M CLASS 5 H’CAP

SIR SANDICLIFFE 2.56 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

E/W Advantages – Distance
Ground Conditions
Won at Course

E/W Disadvantages – Weight
Trainer overall Record

I expect Spiders Star to win the race, but expect Sir Sandcliffe
to be placed & as long as the ground remains GS or softer then,
that’ll suit the horse.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Today’s backing selection. Remember to only risk 5% of your
Betfair/bookie account.

2:50 LINGIELD CLASS 5 1M 2F GF

WILBURY STAR BACK 6.0

Backing Advantages – Distance
Ground Conditions
Trainer & Jockey Comb.

Backing Disadvantages – Course Characteristics

As long as the ground stay’s GF that’ll suit the horse fine &
I expect the race to be tight – main rival Hawks Eye recent
winner 1m 2f & GF.

Mark

[cormack15]

Hi shmeek – enjoying this thread.

One thought occured to me though – aren’t there just as many variables to consider when laying horses as when backing them?

[shmeeko69]

Hi cormack15

Yes your correct & that is why I only lay horses between 1.7 & 4.5 with Betfair & my liability is 5%.

If I see a horse with short odds & think It should be higher, I will lay the horse, as long as it meet’s my criteria & In reverse for backing, If the horse has high odds & I think they should be shorter & has a good chance of winning, I’ll back it.

It’s all about value & even although you’ll have your losing days, net net you will make a profit if you can spot a value bet to back or lay !

Mark

[shmeeko69]

My each way selection for today. Remember to only risk 5% of
your Betfair/bookie account.

4:15 THIRSK CLASS 4 H’CAP 2M GOOD

DANZATRIZE 2.26 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

E/Way Advantages – Distance
Weight
Ground Conditions

E/Way Disadvantages – Trainer Overall Form

As long as the ground stay’s good, that will suit the horse & expect it to finish in the top three, with Saga De Tercey the real danger.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

My e/way selection for today. Remember to only risk 5% of
your Betfair/bookie account.

5:10 HEREFORD NOV. H’CAP HURDLE CLASS4 2M 1F GF

GARAFENA 3.9 E/WAY (4 PLACES)

E/Way Advantages – Recent Course Win
Distance
Ground Conditions
Jockey

E/way Disadvantages – Weight
Trainer Overall Record

As long as the ground stay’s GF, then I think we’ll be ok for a
top 4 position. Wait a while for more liquidity to build up with Betfair,
or you’ll get gapping of the price.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Here is my E/way selection for today, just hope this one run’s, unlike
the call off with yesterday’s horse. Remember to only risk 5% of your
Betfair/bookie account.

3:40 REDCAR CLASS4 1M GF/GOOD IN PLACES

CELTIC CHANGE 4.1 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

E/Way Advantages – Ground Conditions
Distance
Weight

E/Way Disadvantages – Trainer Overall Form

This is a tricky race to predict & I think the best value bet is with
Celtic Change. Lakeman would have been another but there’s not
enough cut in the ground & Daaweitza is an alternative bet e/way at 2.8.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Unusual E/Way bet for today a Maiden Race !! Remember to only
risk 5% of your Betfair/bookie account.

2:10 CHEPSTOW CLASS4 1M SOFT

LAYLINE 4.3 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

E/WAY Advantages – Trainer % E/Way for 2yo’s
Pedigree

E/Way Disadvantages – Unknown Quantity

I expect the race to be contested between Milnagavie & Crystal Gale,
but I believe there’s a value e/way bet of 4.3 for first time out Layline.

Mark

[Stacelita]

Nice 1 I missed it though

[shmeeko69]

Thanks for your kind words Stacelita.
I really like this forum as majority of people are
positive & don’t slag each other.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

Today’s each way is a bit of a punt & once again
it’s a Maiden race ! Remember to only risk 5% of
your Betfair/bookie account.

2:30 NEWCASTLE CLASS5 6F GS

KELLYS EYE 5.7 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

E/way Advantages – Trainer 2yo e/way %
Good Pedigree

E/way Disadvantages – Unknown Quantity

Whilst I expect the race to be contested between Aalsmeer &
Love Delta, I expect a challenge from Namecheck & our horse
Kellys Eye & at 5.7 e/way 45.0 to win, I think represent’s a
value bet.

Mark

[shmeeko69]

My e/way selection for today is once again a Maiden Race.
Remember to only risk 5% of your Betfair/bookie account.

1:50 SEDGEFIELD CLASS4 MDN HURDLE 2M 1F

MESBAAH 4.5 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

E/way Advantages – Trainer Hurdle % e/way
Trainer Course Record

E/way Disadavntages – Unknown Over Hurdles
Flat Form

Whilst I expect Mcmurdo Sound with A P McCoy on board &
Timocracy to fight it out, I think Mesbaah might have an e/way
chance & is good value at 4.5 e/way or 27 to back.

Mark

[silkyuk9]

My e/way selection for today is once again a Maiden Race.
Remember to only risk 5% of your Betfair/bookie account.

1:50 SEDGEFIELD CLASS4 MDN HURDLE 2M 1F

MESBAAH 4.5 E/WAY (3 PLACES)

E/way Advantages – Trainer Hurdle % e/way
Trainer Course Record

E/way Disadavntages – Unknown Over Hurdles
Flat Form

Whilst I expect Mcmurdo Sound with A P McCoy on board &
Timocracy to fight it out, I think Mesbaah might have an e/way
chance & is good value at 4.5 e/way or 27 to back.

Mark

Great e/w bet there, 2nd at around 20/1 well done

[shmeeko69]

Thanks for your kind words Silkyu9.

As i mentioned on my analysis, that Richard Fahey
has a 38% e/way for 4yo+ & a 36% win rate for Hurdles
at Sedgefield & therefore thought it offered good value.

I never blindly follow the money, as it’s the quickest way
to the poor house.

Mark

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