Forum Replies Created
- Posts
I think I probably need to convince myself that I have got one or two bankers nailed down from the Festival championship races at this stage, as it will soon be time to start picking through those imponderable handicaps where I struggle to find even a 4-way place banker most years.
I have just been reading through the last few postings on the WH. Some really good points, I think. I agree with those who say that a strong pace would probably play to KB’s strengths, as he travels and hurdles so well. The only caveat perhaps is that with a horse that travels so well there is always the danger of getting to the front a bit sooner than ideal. Arguably, as things played out, Inglis Drever derived a slight advantage in the race last season from hitting a flat spot and then having to be rousted along to get back into contention going to the last. It just gave ID that bit more momentum as they started up the hill to the line, I felt, and that may have proved decisive in him narrowly overhauling KB to win the race.
I would also agree with those who say that KB is unlikely to be beaten for a lack of stamina. He stayed well enough in the WH last season and over the summer he was progressive as a stayer on the flat in some very high quality races. For me, the outcome of the WH this time is likely to hinge much more on how much of the sting is taken out of KB’s finishing speed by the pace of the race and the ground conditions on the day. Off a fairly average pace for the race on good to soft, KB probably will be able to put the race to bed easily enough with a burst of speed away from the last hurdle (though he probably won’t sprint away with quite the flourish he showed on Saturday on an easier track at Haydock). If the pace/going is a bit more demanding though, he may have to battle all the way to the line to win. He was tenacious enough in trying to hold ID off in the race last season, so he will probably do well enough if he has to dig deep in a battle up the hill. But perhaps it is fair to say there is no reason to think KB would prove any more tenacious in a battle than Punchestowns or Big Buck’s, and Fair Along we know is a very tough horse too.
When horses with a good turn of foot lose the advantage of their acceleration at the end of a hard race at Cheltenham due to having used up a lot of their reserves of energy, it does sometimes seem to hand the advantage quickly to the bigger, more muscular horses in the last few yards up the hill. The stronger built horses have the muscular power to drive themselves up the hill as opposed to sprinting away, even though they may be tiring just as much as the smaller, flat bred types. I suppose Noland’s win in the Supreme Novices is an example of that. Not surprisingly, Noland fell off the pace in that race as he was up against a number of speedy types with flat ratings of 90+. But he gained momentum coming down the hill into the straight and then really powered away up the hill as his physical strength and length of stride stole the advantage away from the tiring speed horses. Similarly perhaps with Captain Cee Bee in last season’s SN where his muscularity and length of stride seemed to play a key part in overhauling Binocular up the hill. I don’t think it was stamina (or stamina alone) that saw Noland and Captain Cee Bee win out in the battle up the hill – I think their wins had more to do with an advantage that is handed to the bigger, stronger horse under certain types of race condition at Cheltenham and particularly in the strongly run championship races.
My Way De Solzen’s WH was one of the fastest run in recent years, albeit on drying ground. Both Golden Cross and MWDS were pretty flat out at the end and that perhaps levelled things up between them going up the hill. Golden Cross, the good flat horse, couldn’t quite muster the acceleration to match the finishing drive of the bigger, more muscular horse. With his turn of foot blunted, Golden Cross struggled to get on terms with the physical strength that drove MWDS into the lead as they started up the hill.
I still think KB is the most likely winner, but perhaps enough doubts to think the bookies have got the better of the deal at odds around 11/8 and lower. But then the bookies were offering KB at 8/1 for the WH just before the start of the season, so maybe they are on a damage limitation exercise now in cutting the price about the horse so sharply.
Kasbah Bliss’ run on Saturday has really set up the World Hurdle nicely now. Though visually very impressive, I am not sure that KB achieved quite enough in winning to justify his odds for the WH being cut to near evens with some bookies. Nevertheless, he proved his fitness and provided a reminder of the qualities that make for a really good specialist staying hurdler – travels smoothly, quick and economical over the hurdles, maintains position well, genuine and responsive, and has the finishing speed to see off the opposition where required.
Marginally, I prefer KB for the WH, though I probably wouldn’t be increasing my stake on him now at the revised skinny odds. After Saturday’s race, I would see KB more as a 2/1 shot than near evens. I accept that his turn of foot may be the decisive factor in the race. While Punchestowns and Big Buck’s are no slouches, I don’t think they have quite the acceleration that KB has. Sprinting home to win against inferior opposition off no more than a sound pace on Saturday is one thing, of course, whether KB can reproduce such a decisive finish in the WH on a stiffer track where the pace of the race might be a notch or two higher is another matter.
Someone earlier in this thread suggested, wisely I thought, that there may be question marks about all four at the top of the WH betting in terms of just how well they see out the trip and whether they can be seen as genuine stayers. Clearly, KB saw out the trip well enough in the WH last season, but just how well he stayed has to be open to question given that he had the advantage at the start of the run in but was unable to find sufficient to repel Inglis Drever after that. KB battled up the run in up to a point, and he certainly didn’t fold tamely, but neither did he find enough reserves to use his turn of foot to hold off the much older rival.
I accept there can be different explanations for why KB didn’t hang on to win the WH last season. Possibly he got to the front too early for the type of horse he is and, for sure, Inglis Drever swooping late up the hill at Cheltenham was a mighty force and very difficult for any horse in front to repel. There is just enough doubt in my mind though about how strongly KB is likely to finish at the end of a strongly run WH, to just be wary of going in again on the horse at his revised (skinny) odds. I do recognise though that KB is probably reaching his peak this season and may be an even stronger horse stamina wise than we saw last season. And I wouldn’t necessarily bet on any of the other realistic contenders for the WH (Fair Along, Big Buck’s and Punchestowns) lasting home any more strongly than KB if the pace of the race happens to be pretty demanding. They have all, to some extent, got questions to answer about how much they can find at the business end of a strongly run stayers hurdle on a stiff track under championship conditions.
The pace didn’t seem particularly strong in last season’s WH, though comparisons with previous renewals are not so easy to make. If there is to be a bit more pace this time (which there probably needs to be if there is to be a chance of running KB’s turn of foot out of him), I wonder where it will come from? Likely front runners in the early stages of the race (Hardy Eustace, Catch Me – if they turn up) are not really proven stayers over the trip and so I am not sure they could be relied on to inject that much pace into the race. Similarly, given the relative youth and inexperience of Big Buck’s and Punchestowns, I would imagine the respective trainers would be wary of making too much use of them in terms of really trying to push the pace out in order to make the race an even stiffer test of stamina than it normally is. Fair Along was a strong front runner over shorter distances, but understandably has been ridden with more restraint over the longer trip. If the pace of the race turns out to be no more than fairly average for the WH, and assuming the ground is no worse than marginally soft, I think KB may well be capable of putting in a stronger finish than he did ln the WH last season and that should prove decisive in seeing off the horses that don’t have his flat speed. If we get a real slog (due to wet ground and/or stronger than usual pace in the early and/or middle parts of the race), it is much more up in the air who will win, I feel, and a saver on Big Buck’s at what is now a quite attractive price (around 7/1 on the exchanges) might be prudent in case the ground/race conditions are not ideal for KB. In fact, as the odds on Big Buck’s have gone out, he is just about backable each way for any KB backers looking for a sensible saver.
Yes, interesting to see that Nenuphar Collonges has been kept in the entries at the forfeit stage. I see there has been some support for Catch Me recently, though that horse is also still in the CH entries. An underestimated horse, I feel, though possibly neither the WH or the CH the type of races best suited to Catch Me.
:lol: As of when did Denman become a left-handed boat?
I can understand the fitness arguments, but there’s nothing about the horse’s previous form that would suggest to me that he wont act on a flat track or go right handed. Could someone explain why this view is taken for granted by most?
As of now!
I don’t think Denman would be disadvantaged by a flat track, but as we saw yesterday he does show signs of a preference for going left handed. However, I felt that what was most against him yesterday in terms of the track was the configuration. Denman’s best performances have come when he has been let loose a bit more at the front and allowed to gallop on and build up a strong rhythm with his long stride and powerful jumping. The configuration of the track at Kempton mitigates against a horse like Denman getting into a really effective rhythm. That is partly because the sharp nature of the track means they are racing on the turn a lot of the time and also because where there are straight sections the fences come fairly close together and are reasonably testing. A more athletic, ‘quicker off the mark’ type of horse like MDB has a natural advantage at a track like Kempton over a taller, heavier and more lugging type of a horse that relies on relentless galloping to win races. MDB obviously also handled the soft going very well too and clearly is a very useful horse in his own right and deserves a lot of credit for his run yesterday..
I wonder also if Kempton is perhaps more of test of stamina than is often thought. The constant changing of pace because of the turns and the relative closeness of the fences in the straights probably demands quite a bit from horses in terms of stamina, and particularly so on soft ground where the quite demanding fences require an extra effort to jump. On more galloping tracks and where the fences don’t come quite so close together, horses that can get into a good rhythm can be ridden more economically, I feel, and other things being equal that can leave them with a little more in the tank at the end of the race than is the case at a track like Kempton. Yesterday was certainly not the first time we have seen good horses finish well strung out on holding ground at Kempton.
Denman was out jumped by MDB generally yesterday. Tall horses often don’t jump as well out of holding ground though, particularly where the fences are fairly stiff. They tend to stand off and then realise it is not so easy to get out of the ground and clear the fence from so far off. It makes them a bit more cautious and probably takes a bit more out of them with the extra effort required to clear the fences standing off that bit further. Shorter horses find it easier to get in the extra stride and don’t face quite the same problem.
Quite a puzzling race today in many respects and one that will probably take some picking over. I enjoyed MDB’s performance enormously. The horse looked in fantastic condition and the trainer had clearly got a lot of work into him. Not surprised to hear David Pipe say that this race might just be MDB’s Gold Cup. He is a trainer who will know better than most how much work it takes to get a horse firing as well as MDB was today and how difficult it is to repeat the trick to order on another day and another track. Not sure how good MDB is now. On the back of his last two runs, you probably could make a strong case for saying that he has bridged the gap with the top three milers around today. Then again, he started the season losing by a country mile to Roll Along, so perhaps some reason for scepticism about just how much of a leap forward he has made.
There were things I felt were concerning about Denman’s run, but he has had a long time off the track for a horse that reportedly doesn’t do as much as some at home and needs his races to maintain peak fitness. Wouldn’t be surprising if he was very stuffy today. He does go well on soft ground, but on soft it is particularly important to have the muscle condition spot on to handle the ground well and the more so for a heavy horse like Denman. That factor too may have been against him shining today.
Also, although you can’t explain his defeat solely in terms of going right handed on a sharp track, the course certainly wouldn’t have helped him today. Note how much ground MDB was taking away from Denman around the bends in the second half of the race and how the distance between the two, if anything, contracted slightly on the straighter sections of the course. Kempton is utterly the wrong type of track for a big, ring rusty horse that relies on getting into a good rhythm/stride to be seen at his best. By contrast, MDB clearly has the speed to benefit from a track like Kempton, having won five times in chases over 16-18f and being an unlucky third in the Grand Annual over 17f.
None of those points are meant to imply that everything is fine and dandy with Denman at present. As many others have said, he didn’t look a happy horse today and there was something that seemed not quite sparkling with him. But then again a lot of people said more or less the same thing about Kauto Star when he came back for the first time after a long break following his win in the Gold Cup and put in what some saw as a lacklustre performance, going down to Monet’s Garden at Aintree. A lot of commentators were saying then that Kauto looked flat and subdued and only a shadow of the horse that had won the Gold Cup seven months earlier. At the time, my view was that Kauto simply looked like a horse that had been in a very hard race last time out (i.e. in the 2007 Gold Cup) and, after a long summer break, didn’t look that pleased to find himself back on the race track. Obviously, we don’t know that much about how psychology works with horses, but perhaps it is not unreasonable to think that a horse will remember a hard race where they have been pretty much emptied out and that memory can affect the attitude shown in future races, particularly the first race back after a break.
If Denman is genuinely over his heart problem, I would be optimistic that with this first race back out the way, he will come on considerably in his next race on a more suitable track. Whether he is back to full health, of course, we don’t really know based on the evidence of today’s race. Presumably, he will have some veterinary tests now over the next few days that may reveal more.
I have just seen a clip of Silver Sedge’s win at Ayr today. Long time since I have seen three greys filling the places in a NH race. Thought I was seeing treble for a moment.
Yes, you certainly get the sense with Big Buck’s that we haven’t really got to bottom of how good he might be as a stayer and that is another thing that adds a lot of interest to the WH this season.
I am looking forward to the WH probably most of all of the four big races at the Festival this year (I’ll probably get more into the Denman versus Kauto renewal later on, once we know better whether Denman is over his health scare). It looks as if possibly the WH might prove the most competitive of the four major races if the closeness of the antepost betting at the top of the market is any guide. It also adds interest that at the top of the market we have two chasing types who have proved very good over hurdles versus two horses that have been quite good stayers on the flat. Don’t always get quite such a close contest between good chasing types and good flat stayers in the top 3m hurdles races. It was a shame Inglis Drever was missing the year My Way De Solzen won the WH, though I suppose Golden Cross was the flat stayer against the chasing type (My Way) in that race and made a good fist of it in coming a close second.
Anyone see a horse(s) outside the top four in the betting for the WH this time worth closer consideration? I can’t quite see one myself. Powerstation would be interesting for a possible place perhaps if it came up soft. Don’t know what has happened to Kazal this season (seems to be well off form) or whether he will even come to Cheltenham, but looks unlikely now that he will be building on his third in the race last year. Blazing Bailey – not easy perhaps to work out the conditions that best suit that horse and has given little cause for optimism about his chances the way he has run so far this season. Mobasher has run some good races this season, without ever looking quite good enough to win a WH – could certainly see him finishing in the top five though. United would have been interesting given the fourth she achieved in the 2007 WH, but the DN Mares race looks the target there. Not convinced Aitmatov would achieve any more in the WH this time than he managed last season. Mighty Man may not make the race and it probably won’t be the main target for the horse this season anyway. I see Nenuphar Collonges is still in the entries, though the betting suggests he is highly unlikely to run in the race. Would have added another interesting angle had Nenuphar been targeted at the race.
Silent Oscar out for the season, I see. An outsider for the CH, for sure, but would have been interesting to see him out again to see if he could build on a very good performance in beating Macs Joy last time out at the Punchestown Festival in 2007.
Has the trainer indicated that the CH rather than the DN Mares race will be the target for Whiteoak? A lightly raced horse, so perhaps not so easy to dismiss for the CH with the mare’s allowance, albeit still quite an outsider. Good mix of speed and stamina, at least. Let’s hope she jumps a bit straighter this season – she went out to the right at times last season, I think.
Yes, the riding arrangements give some cause for thought. I would also partly agree with Tom Segal’s reservations about backing Kasbah Bliss at short odds given that the horse has not been seen out since October. If you can make an exception on that point though, you might do so for this particular trainer.
I would still be surprised though if Punchestowns and Big Bucks turn out to be significantly better in the WH than the two who fought out the finish in the race last time, but it would be a pleasant and welcome surprise.
Nic Mordin’s reflections on Saturday’s race are interesting. He has given Celestial Halo quite a high rating for the race, but expresses reservations that on that showing Celestial Halo will be good enough to win the CH. He points out that on Saturday Celestial Halo took half a second more to get to the line from the last than they did in the juvenile hurdle on the same card and a fifth of a second more than in the staying hurdle. He suggests that to rank as a viable Champion Hurdle candidate Celestial Halo should have been able to finish a lot more strongly than that.
I think he makes a fair enough point, though perhaps it would be worth adding that both the juvenile hurdle and the staying hurdle had a slightly more competitive finish from the last hurdle than was the case in Celestial Halo’s race. Also, Walsh started to wind it up pretty early with Celestial Halo and the race with Osana was sustained for a fair way, so some tying up nearer the line was possibly to be expected. When they started to race, Osana and Celestial Halo certainly pretty quickly put some ground between them and Afsoun, which is perhaps an indicator of the amount of effort the front two were expending in that drive to the line from some way out on soft ground. Afsoun came back a bit as the front two tired towards the line. If I were a supporter of Celestial Halo or Osana, marginally I would be more encouraged than discouraged by how each ran on Saturday.
I am very split in my view about the likely winner of the CH this time. I mostly agree with those who think the race is Binocular’s to lose on anything other than very soft ground. Any doubt I have about Binocular winning mainly rests on the issue of whether there is a horse (or horses) with sufficient ability and disposition to really stretch the field with a fierce, sustained pace. Arguably, Osana might come close to being that horse and possibly that would boost Celestial Halo’s chances considerably, as it would probably play to his strengths to tuck in behind Osana for most of the way before taking it on himself to make it a real test of stamina in a hard, sustained drive to the line. Whether Celestial Halo has sufficient class to be able to lay up with the best that Osana can offer and then still find more to take it up if necessary over the last couple of furlongs, it will be interesting to see. It will be even more interesting to see how Binocular would cope with a really searching pace. What would be ironic though – and disappointing – would be if we find the field is not strong enough to ensure a pace any stronger than the pace set in last year’s CH
and
Binocular struggles to win even off a fairly modest race time. (In fairness, I think the strong wind and strong early pace was partly responsible for the pace collapsing a bit in the middle of the CH race last season.)
I can see it might be a concern that possibly it has taken a lot of work to get Punchestowns to where he is so far this season and all that work could take its toll on the horse in the second half of the season. But there is perhaps too much speculation in making that observation for it to be a major consideration when it comes to deciding what, if anything, to punt on in the WH.
I think I would though give a lot of weight to experience and maturity over the promise of youth when looking for a winner of the WH. Punchestowns and Big Bucks could both go on to have brilliant careers as chasers and both have won what are considered trials for the WH well enough this season. But there is still a gap to bridge between winning trials, mainly on winter ground, and winning a major championship race at Cheltenham on what could well be much quicker ground. Fair Along and Kasbah Bliss have the advantage over the other two in terms of experience and maturity and that could be very important in influencing the outcome of the WH. Both of those horses have proven form in key races at the Festival, albeit not yet winners of a major championship race at the Festival. And both have shown reasonable form in stayers races on the flat. They have marginally the more experience over hurdles.
Fair Along I like because he is tough, has a good Cheltenham record, is a better horse for spring ground and would be suited by a strong pace (though with the caveat that he has still to prove he can last home over the stayers distance in a fast run race). Kasbah Bliss I like for similar reasons, but with the addition that he ran Inglis Drever close in the WH last season. While Inglis Drever might not have been absolutely top drawer, he has set the benchmark for what it takes to win a WH in recent seasons and Kasbah Bliss was very close to toppling Inglis in last year’s race.
Maybe Big Bucks and/or Punchestowns can set a new, higher standard in the stayers division and leave Kasbah Bliss (and by implication Inglis Drever) well behind, but I would be surprised if that were the case on what I have seen of the two younger horses so far this season, impressive though both have been. I can see the outcome of the WH this season again being very close to call, but on ground no worse than good to soft I feel the experience and greater turn of foot of Kasbah Bliss (or, less likely, Fair Along) may just prevail. Kasbah Bliss may also have the advantage of being a fresher horse going into the race (there is always a danger of being too fresh for the Festival races, of course). He does seem to be a
spring horse
though (insofar as that term makes any sense), and so it might not be great news for his supporters if we get a late spring this year.
I have been very impressed by both I’msingingtheblues and Kalahari King this season, and currently would see them together as very good value against the top two in the market, Tatenen and Calgary Bay. I wouldn’t be ruling out the top two at this stage, but I don’t think they have done enough this season to justify being so much shorter in the current market than I’msingingtheblues and Kalahari King. Compared to Tatenen’s record so far, I’msingingtheblues has been up against and beaten some far better horses this season over fences.
I have been slow to warm to I’msingingtheblues for the Arkle, mainly because of being influenced too much by a couple of widely expressed views about the horse that are now starting to look less defensible. One is the view expressed last season by Nic Mordin to the effect that the horse was a short runner and better suited by slow, tactical races on sharpish tracks. I can’t see the evidence for supporting that view now. I’msingingtheblues beat Snap Tie in a fairly strong run hurdles race last season at Cheltenham and chasing this season he has won a number of times off a strong gallop and appears to have been finishing each race pretty strongly. A galloping track particularly seems to suit.
The other view that was putting me off I’msingingtheblues for the Arkle is the notion that he is better suited by a flat track. Last season, he was a keen horse and didn’t settle particularly well and it probably made sense in that context to avoid stiff, undulating tracks. Having said that, he still managed to win on his first visit to Cheltenham and subsequent defeats over hurdles at that track possibly, in part, could be explained in terms of not being suited by the slow early pace in those race. The modest performance in the County Hurdle was perhaps less easy to dismiss, although again there was less pace in that race than there often is for a County Hurdle.
I think I’msingingtheblues has possibly settled in his races better this season and the normally strong pace in the Arkle should help in that regard too. On that basis, I wouldn’t be so worried about him handling a stiff, undulating track in terms of seeing out the trip and getting up the hill. He is a quick jumper, game, travels well generally and has the tactical speed to be very competitive in a fast run Arkle. On the downside, my concerns with I’msingingtheblues would be his size, given that there can be plenty of bumping and fighting for position in the Arkle and the more so with the likely big field this year. And perhaps there is also a slight concern that as I’msingingtheblues has looked so good winning on a flat, galloping track that getting into a rhythm is particularly important with this horse and the undulations and stiffish fences at Cheltenham can, of course, make it much harder to get into the right groove and particularly so where there is a good chance of encountering barging and crowding in the race.
Hello,
Did anyone else feel that Johnson’s ride on FAIR ALONG was a tad strange??
Why did he elect to go on the far side in between the last two hurdles, then promptly rejoin the two principals on the stand side after the last thus losing important ground??A very mystyfying decision from a seasoned horseman..
Not sure about Johnson’s ride, but I did think Fair Along’s performance was encouraging and certainly justifies taking his place in the WH in March. He did lose important ground after the switch at the last, but Big Buck’s possibly had enough left to out muscle Fair Along up the hill on that ground had it come to a closer finish between the two.
The bad ground was not ideal for any of the first three, but arguably disadvantaged Fair Along the most as he is by far the smaller and least powerful of the placed horses. Some reason therefore for thinking that better ground and a faster pace in March might allow Fair Along to get even closer to the two that beat him yesterday. The other two, along with Kasbah Bliss, are rightly much shorter odds than Fair Along for the WH at this stage, but the 16/1 for Fair Along with one bookie last night didn’t look a bad each way price.
Of course, what we didn’t get in the race yesterday was a pace anything like that which can be expected in the WH. So far, only Kasbah Bliss of the first four in the current market has shown he can cope with the pace of a typical WH and fight out a close finish under those conditions. Big Buck’s certainly looks like he has the engine for it, but there will be less room for error with his hurdling come March (assuming better ground). With Fair Along, and possibly even Punchestowns, I would have some concerns about their ability to fully last home in a truly run WH – or, at least, those two have certainly got it still to prove.
Good to have three or four genuine competitors for the WH this time. Shame Kazal has not built on the promise he showed in finishing third in the WH last season or there would be another strong competitor to add to the mix.
De Bromhead has put in the same owners 97 rated Oscillating Oscar as a possible pacemaker.
That’ll add further interest to the race if they do try to ensure a more searching pace in the earlier stages. You’d think it would make it a better test for Brave Inca also, who could still be interesting in top company on soft ground off a pace that demands plenty from the winner in terms of stamina.
If we get a race with a reasonable pace on for the conditions, allied to softer ground, it’ll shed more light on whether Nic Mordin and some others are right in their judgement about Sizing Europe. Mordin has written that he thinks Sizing Europe has stamina limitations and needs good ground to truly last home in top company.
I can see where Mordin is coming from on that point, but it would be interesting to know how he squares his view with Sizing Europe’s win in the Greatwood on rain affected ground and very poor weather conditions for the race. Arguably, the only horse of real merit SE beat in that race was Osana who was conceding weight to SE, but the race looked a reasonable enough test of stamina on poor ground, with the first two finishing well enough clear of the rest of the field.
If SE is showing signs in more recent races of struggling to get home, I think I would be more inclined to view it as likely to be a physical problem (breathing problem perhaps) rather than evidence of an intrinsic stamina issue with the horse. But SE can be quite a strong puller and it is just possible he is one of those horses that just doesn’t fire unless he gets sufficient pace and momentum around him to draw him into the race and trigger the higher gears he undoubtedly has. I tend to think SE gave his truest running when he beat Big Zeb impressively as a novice at Punchestown in 2007. The conditions of that race really seemed to suit – a big field, fair pace on, plenty of action around him, ridden prominently, hit the front and kicked for home comparatively early, and made excellent use of his high gear, long stride and power to burn off the opposition some way out.
SE was also very impressive in the AIG, but that was in a smaller field. In the Punchestown race (and to some extent in the Greatwood too), I thought SE particularly showed a real competitiveness and enthusiasm allied to his natural talent. He looked like he had the keeness and toughness of a champion in waiting. Not much evidence of toughness perhaps in his last three races, but then he may just be a tough and talented horse that is also fragile health wise or complicated in some other way.
On the topic of the best ground conditions for Sublimity, I remember his former trainer was never too clear on that subject. A couple of times from the quotes I have he expressed concerns about racing Sublimity on ground that was no worse that soft, while he is also on record as saying the horse needs some cut to be at his best. I suppose one way of squaring that would be to think that because Sublimity has had injury problems in the past he might find genuine good ground a bit too jarring to be at his best, while really soft ground would dent the advantage of his finishing speed and might be too big a test of his stamina. Yielding or marginally soft ground would perhaps be the optimum conditions for the horse??
With the forecast rain next week, I can see the race cutting up and several of those with a strong preference for better ground (such as Jered and Harchibald) not taking their place. On that basis, the 6-1 antepost on Sizing Europe would certainly look reasonable value, with some of the reservations about the horse priced in at those odds.
SE’s last race turned into something of a sprint at the end and in that context it was perhaps understandable that he was beaten for finishing speed by Sublimity and Won in the Dark. It was perhaps less easy to excuse him finishing behind Brave Inca in that race though. However, I accept that the injury scare pre-race gives reason for not being over-critical of SE’s run. SE just seemed to empty rather quickly last time, as he did to some extent when surrendering the lead to Hardy Eustace first time up this season. I would be worried about the horse’s well being at this stage, but 6/1 for the Toshiba is perhaps not an unfair price to find out where things stand with a horse that undoubtedly is very talented.
In theory, a stronger pace in the Toshiba should play to SE’s strengths. As a stronger pace is far from guaranteed though, it will be interesting to see if they try to make a bit more use of SE this time by breaking for home comparatively early, as SE did in last season’s AIG. SE was impressive in galloping all over Hardy Eustace and Al Eile last season, but it would be a more solid piece of form if he could repeat the dose against some promising younger horses and a revitalised Sublimity this time.
A more truly run race would also make it a more interesting test of Hurricane Fly, assuming that horse turns up in the Toshiba. Hurricane Fly has so far shown he can travel well and then outspeed his opponents off a comparatively modest pace. How he copes against older horses, if we get a faster early pace and/or a sustained burst of pace from a few furlongs out (as in last season’s AIG), would be fascinating to see. As Mullins has not yet committed Hurricane Fly to run in the Toshiba though, we may have to wait another day to see just how good that horse might be.
Good to see Silent Oscar in the list of entries. May well be another who won’t line up and needs better ground anyway to be at his best. He might well be short of Cheltenham Champion Hurdle class and has been off a long time, but after beating Macs Joy at the Punchestown Festival in 2007 I would hope we get chance this season to see how he matches up against the best of the current crop of two mile hurdlers.
Good luck with the bet, Dan.
Following on from Fist’s point about the promising bigger horses often seeming not to make the grade at top level, I suppose these horses often fall between two stools. On the good ground we often get at the major festivals the really big horses tend to lack the tactical speed and turn of foot to make a mark over the shorter distances. But then their size and heaviness can be against them making the grade as out and out stayers over the longer trips in a career of reasonable duration.
Easy enough to think of exceptions though. Among other things, what was so fantastic about Arkle was that he combined amazing athleticism and power with the ability to stay long distances and sustain long bursts of relentless galloping even under extreme top weight. Arkle’s size seemed nothing other than an advantage to the horse on the race track. Likewise, the way Denman engaged high gear and went away from the field on the second circuit in the 2008 Gold Cup was also pretty amazing, but it makes me wonder how much more it takes out of a horse Denman’s size to put in that kind of unyielding effort in a stayers race at top level.
I suppose one of the key advantages that the talented really big horses have is their ability to lengthen their stride, and thereby make up ground or open up a significant lead very quickly, in the latter stages of a race that has been run off a relatively modest early pace, and particularly so on softer ground. I guess Denman’s Gold Cup win was a good example of that. The first circuit was run at a fairly average pace, leaving Denman enough in the tank to really lengthen his stride and gallop away from the field on the second circuit with a sustained burst of speed.
When a lead horse has opened up a gap in the last few furlongs of a race, it is hard for the following horses to make up the ground at the best of times and especially on softer ground. But when the horse in front has the physical advantage of a much longer stride (and often allied to having more scope/length at the hurdles/fences), the task of closing down the lead horse would seem to be made many times harder. In that context, a big horse can look really impressive winning his races (Denman in the Gold Cup, Sizing Europe in the AIG, Detroit City in the Greatwood), But it does seem there are particular race conditions that facilitate that kind of (eyecatching) performance from the bigger horses and those conditions can often be thwarted tactically by opponents or else they aren’t the conditions most typical of the major championship races.
Having said that, I would love to see a size-based 1-2-3 in this year’s Arkle, so a tricast of Original, Calgary Bay and Araldur in that order should fit the bill.
I see Knight was suggesting Calgary Bay, being such a well built, long striding horse, might get outpaced in an Arkle. She was making a similar point to that which Alan King made about Araldur when he said he feared the horse would be badly outpaced down the hill in an Arkle. I take their point to an extent, though of course two of the last three winners of the Arkle have been well built, quite long striding types (Tidal Bay and My Way De Solzen). And arguably it is not entirely an advantage to be a smaller, nippier type in the Arkle, as the race can get rough, with plenty of bumping and fighting for position, and smaller horses (as with Fair Along in the Arkle a couple of seasons ago) can be disadvantaged in that respect. Though, on the other hand, a bit of tactical speed helps in avoiding trouble in running.
Can I ask if anyone has heard anything about Fiveforthree? I may have missed an update on the horse, but is he still likely to run this season or has there been a setback? I remember the trainer saying he thought the horse had the gears for an Arkle, though obviously the RSA could be another target.
