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Despite how many times he’s let people down the first question that pops into my head regarding this race is…why are Corals going out on a limb and offering 6/1 for Sizing Europe? Everyone else is currently offering best priced 9/2.
Sizing Europe, for all his criticisms, hasnt had the best time of it all. His last run was well below par HOWEVER to finish 4th behind some reasonably good horses after having very bad preperation for the race wasnt the worst performance in the world. On all accounts, Sizing Europe isn’t a 6/1 shot for this race.
Sublimity, the market leader on 5/2 antepost, seems to have been revitalised this year and may very well get it all his own way again this time out. He could do a lot worse that being beaten narrowly by Punjabi first time out in the Fighting Fifth and to come out and win at Leopardstown was a very decent performance. However, 5/2 is too short for me though on the antepost and I wont be playing at the moment.
Of the others, I like Jered a lot. He will need decent ground but if he does turn up here he’d certainly be one I’d be backing on the day at a decent price. I feel theres a lot more to come from Jered and a decent performance here will put him much higher up in the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle odds and probably nearer to where he deserves to be.
For me, It’s a £10 antepost bet on Sizing Europe. 6/1 is too good value to turn down and especially if he gets an uninterupted preperation. This is Sizing Europe’s last chance and I really hope he hacks up.
Dan
The Irish Champion Hurdle
This could be the most important race of the season for Irish trained horses so far. It could finger the biggest danger to Champion Hurdle favourite Binocular
Current CH 2nd favourite Sublimity head the market but if all run it should give us all a clearer picture.
Sublimity himself should be bang there at the finish but he is no good thing as between now and March we can expect some massive change rounds in form.
Sizing Europe 9/2 can’t be ruled out his run last time was too bad to be true and it could be put down to his bruised foot.
Jered will be out leave the frm of his last race well behind prove he is no forlorn hope for the Champion Hurdle
Harchibald never ceases to amaze me, No matter what he runs against he can travel with the best of them. Everything better hope they have him off the bridle before the last or they will have a huge problem on their hands.
Hurricane Fly? surely he wont run?
Brave Inca can’t possibly win
Won in The Dark. It is pefecrly possible ground permitting he will improve again and turn the tables on Sublimity’
Muirhead He was close enough and going well enough 3 out behind Sublimity and Won in the Dark to suggest if he hasn’t been fully wound up he could spring a surprise here and put himself right into the Champion Hurdle picture.
I have no idea what will run so would love to here some news on what’s what.
Been looking forward to seeing Silent Oscar again, I backed him the last two times when he beat Macs Joy twice, then for the Champion Hurdle at big odds but he never made it. Thats the target again this year just hope hes fit enough to do himself justice. He’ll be carrying my money if he takes his chance in this, big ask after a long break I know but has been nibbeld on betfair.
Well I am going to give another ex-invalid in Sizing Europe one more chance…….I can’t accept he’s a bridle horse and he certainly wasn’t when he beat Big Zeb, Osana and won the AIG………11/2 looks a good price as he has been confirmed to run while others have not.
He looked for a minute or two last time out like he was going to do the business before droppng out rapidly………that gave me hope that the ability is still there and it could be he just hasn’t come to himself yet.
We”ll find out soon
If ground conditions come up soft or heavy can’t see Sublimity winning this, I actually wouldn’t run him. Sizing Europe went out like a light on the last three occasions he has run, and I do believe there were legitimate reasons for this, however wouldn’t touch his 9/2. Jered, I would put in the same boat as Sublimity, wouldn’t run him in soft conditions. How much winding is Noel Meade doing on Muirhead Fist, he has had two appearances this season, and quite frankly IMO is just not good enough.
Won in the Dark would be my idea of the winner from the list.
JohnJ.
If it comes up soft or heavy JJ Won in the Dark surely won’t be winning?. He finished stone last behind HE remember and before that was well beaten he last time he encountered heavy ground.
Where Muirhead is concerned I thought he showed a glimpse of being better than the places suggest. They thought an awful lot of him last season and fancied him for the Supreme. I think he started about fav but he ran miles below form’
I think Noele Meade may have changed tactics with him and is training him differntly. Time will tell.
Muirhead was a sick horse at Cheltenham last year. He didn’t travel over well and he wasn’t eating up. Noel said in an interview at the start of this season that he shouldn’t have run him and that he’s only been coming back to himself over the past few months. He didn’t stay to my eyes in the Hattons Grace but I did think he would run a lot better at Leopardstown where he was a bit of a disappointment. He may not be as good as some of us initially thought but Noel did compare him quite favourably to Jered so there might still be some hope for his supporters.
As much as I’d like to attribute Sizing Europe’s last run to his interrupted preparation, I just can’t ignore the fact that he’s stopped like he’s been shot on his last three runs. I do suspect that he’s got some sort of physical problem that they’ve yet to either identify or cure because as Fists says – he is not a bridle horse. I hope he comes back to form because he’s the only horse who I feel could beat Binocular but he won’t be carrying any of my cash at Leopardstown. That said, the 9/2 about him could be made to look very generous.
I know Willie has played down the fact that Hurricane Fly holds an entry but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they let him take his chance. He has both Mikael D’Haguenet and Cousin Vinny for the Deloitte and I’m sure he won’t want to run all of his best novices against each other. It might be that they want to find out if the horse could be good enough to contest the Champion at Cheltenham. If he was to win here there’s no hurdler in England, Binocular aside, that they’d fear. I am well aware that Willie has poured cold water on the possibility of him running in the Champion Hurdle, but I just have a feeling they might be seriously considering it on the quiet.
If you’re still willing to back Sizing Europe to win a Grade 1 race you’ve been on too much of the Thai waccy baccy Fist- Couldn’t back him with stolen money until he finishes a race. My personal theory which I advanced after the Champion last year is that the horse is breaking blood vessels deep in his lungs but not bleeding from the nose.
I dont think sizing europe is a bad price at 11/2 on his best form, and he should have everything in his favour again, however, before his AIG win last season there was huge market confidence behind him in the AIG and Cheltenham markets. That market confidence hasnt really been about this season, and here must surely be questions, if he is really tip top.
IMO Hardy Eustace looks like such an e/w bet at 20-1.
Won In The Dark isnt one I’d be writing off, but I’d want better than 10-1 on him as he needs a decent pace to get amongst it at any level, and especially at this sort of level, couldnt say for certain if he needs good ground (Cheletnham wasnt good ground and he came up the hill brilliantly off a harsh pace), think he’d like anything with cut in it, but IMO his main strength is his ability to travel.
If you’re still willing to back Sizing Europe to win a Grade 1 race you’ve been on too much of the Thai waccy baccy Fist- Couldn’t back him with stolen money until he finishes a race. My personal theory which I advanced after the Champion last year is that the horse is breaking blood vessels deep in his lungs but not bleeding from the nose.
Interesting theory…any evidence that this happens in horses on a regular basis?
Im wondering if he injured his back in the champion last year and is still feeling it. Not uncommon in these big type of horses.SHL
Hmm, very interesting.
My Sizing Europe allegiance is well documented.
And I’m still on the medication.
When is this race run?
Zip
If you’re still willing to back Sizing Europe to win a Grade 1 race you’ve been on too much of the Thai waccy baccy Fist- Couldn’t back him with stolen money until he finishes a race. My personal theory which I advanced after the Champion last year is that the horse is breaking blood vessels deep in his lungs but not bleeding from the nose.
Correct me if I am wrong but I thought pulmonary hemorrhageeven; even when a horse bursts deep in his lungs. will result in a horse coughing up blood?. Checking his mucus is something all trainers do and the slightest sign of blood starts the alarm bells ringing. His jockey would also hear his breathing change dramatically during a race if it was affecting him. Blood in the lungs is also a breeding ground for bacteria and can cause an excessive amount of coughing and mucus. It’s not as difficult to detect as pulmonary heart decease.
That aside I have 2 or 3 reasons why I backed Sizing Europe and none of them are to do with his back problem which I think he is well over.
First run he ran a cracking race and swept into what looked like a winning lead 5 furlongs out…..His jockey rode him like he was 100% fit that day and he probably went too soon.(easy to say after the fact) He looked to me like he blew up and bookies must have thought so to when they made him fav for his next run.
Go back to the AIG Hardy Eustace set of like a bat out of hell and SE cruised past him as we know.
Last time out my granny could have gone faster than HE did. There was no pace and it played right into the hands of Sublimity. A big striding horse like SE is needs a strong gallop and a sprint from the final bend is the last thing he needs. Osana and HE wereright up his street.
2nd race back.bounce factor? Bruised foot? The first is not something I believe in though man would argue but the latter would certainly not have helped him. Something you said yourself before the ace.
It’s a tough race to work out as I have no idea what sort of pace they will go but either Sublimity will be found out by a fast pace or SE will be found out by a slow pace again Jered could of couse beat them both…..I hope I have protected myself against the latter 2 by backing SE EW. At 11/2 I reckon I’m pretty safe and could end with a very nice winner.
I tried having my very first Betfair bet on Halfway To Heaven for the Irish 1000 Guineas, as I’d told the pub landlord that the Pouliches form, and the French form in general, was far superior to the British. Unfortunately, I had a Visa Electron card, and it took me a few days to scan my passport to Betfair, to prove I was over 18. I couldn’t believe her price.
(Only gambled £10 via Betfair until my Hennessy debacle, when I had the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and Big Buck’s. I think that if I’d bothered to study the form properly, i would have done Madison De Berlais as well.)
Also stupidly suggested Halfway To Heaven when the landlord asked me about the Nassau Stakes. (I regard, as everyone else does, Lush Lashes as the moral winner.)
Saw Halfway To Heaven’s victory in the Sun Chariot on the big screen at Longchamp. Couldn’t work out whether the race was late, or delayed coverage. Unfortunately the former, as I’d set the DVD recorder to switch between BBC and Channel 4, so I missed both that race and the Cambridgeshire.
Anyway, the question I meant to ask was, what is the Going likely to be next weekend?
With the forecast rain next week, I can see the race cutting up and several of those with a strong preference for better ground (such as Jered and Harchibald) not taking their place. On that basis, the 6-1 antepost on Sizing Europe would certainly look reasonable value, with some of the reservations about the horse priced in at those odds.
SE’s last race turned into something of a sprint at the end and in that context it was perhaps understandable that he was beaten for finishing speed by Sublimity and Won in the Dark. It was perhaps less easy to excuse him finishing behind Brave Inca in that race though. However, I accept that the injury scare pre-race gives reason for not being over-critical of SE’s run. SE just seemed to empty rather quickly last time, as he did to some extent when surrendering the lead to Hardy Eustace first time up this season. I would be worried about the horse’s well being at this stage, but 6/1 for the Toshiba is perhaps not an unfair price to find out where things stand with a horse that undoubtedly is very talented.
In theory, a stronger pace in the Toshiba should play to SE’s strengths. As a stronger pace is far from guaranteed though, it will be interesting to see if they try to make a bit more use of SE this time by breaking for home comparatively early, as SE did in last season’s AIG. SE was impressive in galloping all over Hardy Eustace and Al Eile last season, but it would be a more solid piece of form if he could repeat the dose against some promising younger horses and a revitalised Sublimity this time.
A more truly run race would also make it a more interesting test of Hurricane Fly, assuming that horse turns up in the Toshiba. Hurricane Fly has so far shown he can travel well and then outspeed his opponents off a comparatively modest pace. How he copes against older horses, if we get a faster early pace and/or a sustained burst of pace from a few furlongs out (as in last season’s AIG), would be fascinating to see. As Mullins has not yet committed Hurricane Fly to run in the Toshiba though, we may have to wait another day to see just how good that horse might be.
Good to see Silent Oscar in the list of entries. May well be another who won’t line up and needs better ground anyway to be at his best. He might well be short of Cheltenham Champion Hurdle class and has been off a long time, but after beating Macs Joy at the Punchestown Festival in 2007 I would hope we get chance this season to see how he matches up against the best of the current crop of two mile hurdlers.
Good luck with the bet, Dan.
Sizing Europe needs to step up to the plate now no more excuses lets see the real deal, lets see the champion if he is one.
I’ll look at the race in detail later in the week but there’s no way Sizing Europe will be carrying my money. I’m not convinced there isn’t a problem with this horse either an undetected physical one or a mental one. He’s fading out of his races way, way too rapidly and tamely for my liking.
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