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Good post Riverman, and one I’m inclined to agree with.
Kasbah Bliss looks the safest option at this stage, and the exploits of Punchestowns and Big Buck’s have made him a backable price.
I think the form of last years Stayers is dire, frankly, and reckon that this years event will go to a proper, progressive type. That, for me, means it’s between Punchestowns and Big Buck’s.
I couldn’t back Kasbah Bliss with Pieux up with stolen money.
Yes, the riding arrangements give some cause for thought. I would also partly agree with Tom Segal’s reservations about backing Kasbah Bliss at short odds given that the horse has not been seen out since October. If you can make an exception on that point though, you might do so for this particular trainer.
I would still be surprised though if Punchestowns and Big Bucks turn out to be significantly better in the WH than the two who fought out the finish in the race last time, but it would be a pleasant and welcome surprise.
Just listened to Nicky Henderson on Racing UK and he said Punchestown was overweight,a bit fat,and needed the race. Will definitely come on for it. Won`t alter my opinion but interesting for the Punch fan club.
I think Kasbah Bliss is due to appear at Haydock prior to Cheltenham. That should let us see if there is still 4 legs in each corner. On form, he would have to be the choice. However its the age old quandary of proven ability against potential ability.
Kasbah Bliss has subsequently beaten Yeats on the level and is a group class stayer now so he has undoubtedly improved.
Despite Pieux being a little suspect, Kasbah Bliss’ handler is not and he will be ready come the big day.
I can see it might be a concern that possibly it has taken a lot of work to get Punchestowns to where he is so far this season and all that work could take its toll on the horse in the second half of the season. But there is perhaps too much speculation in making that observation for it to be a major consideration when it comes to deciding what, if anything, to punt on in the WH.
I think I would though give a lot of weight to experience and maturity over the promise of youth when looking for a winner of the WH. Punchestowns and Big Bucks could both go on to have brilliant careers as chasers and both have won what are considered trials for the WH well enough this season. But there is still a gap to bridge between winning trials, mainly on winter ground, and winning a major championship race at Cheltenham on what could well be much quicker ground. Fair Along and Kasbah Bliss have the advantage over the other two in terms of experience and maturity and that could be very important in influencing the outcome of the WH. Both of those horses have proven form in key races at the Festival, albeit not yet winners of a major championship race at the Festival. And both have shown reasonable form in stayers races on the flat. They have marginally the more experience over hurdles.
Fair Along I like because he is tough, has a good Cheltenham record, is a better horse for spring ground and would be suited by a strong pace (though with the caveat that he has still to prove he can last home over the stayers distance in a fast run race). Kasbah Bliss I like for similar reasons, but with the addition that he ran Inglis Drever close in the WH last season. While Inglis Drever might not have been absolutely top drawer, he has set the benchmark for what it takes to win a WH in recent seasons and Kasbah Bliss was very close to toppling Inglis in last year’s race.
Maybe Big Bucks and/or Punchestowns can set a new, higher standard in the stayers division and leave Kasbah Bliss (and by implication Inglis Drever) well behind, but I would be surprised if that were the case on what I have seen of the two younger horses so far this season, impressive though both have been. I can see the outcome of the WH this season again being very close to call, but on ground no worse than good to soft I feel the experience and greater turn of foot of Kasbah Bliss (or, less likely, Fair Along) may just prevail. Kasbah Bliss may also have the advantage of being a fresher horse going into the race (there is always a danger of being too fresh for the Festival races, of course). He does seem to be a
spring horse
though (insofar as that term makes any sense), and so it might not be great news for his supporters if we get a late spring this year.
Whatever I bet,and it is almost certain to be Big Bucks, I will certainly take Fair Along out of the race. A prolific Chelt horse like him you ignore at your peril I have found over the years. Kasbah Bliss, I share Grassys views,he needs a pilot,but he won`t trouble Big Bucks.
Yes, you certainly get the sense with Big Buck’s that we haven’t really got to bottom of how good he might be as a stayer and that is another thing that adds a lot of interest to the WH this season.
I am looking forward to the WH probably most of all of the four big races at the Festival this year (I’ll probably get more into the Denman versus Kauto renewal later on, once we know better whether Denman is over his health scare). It looks as if possibly the WH might prove the most competitive of the four major races if the closeness of the antepost betting at the top of the market is any guide. It also adds interest that at the top of the market we have two chasing types who have proved very good over hurdles versus two horses that have been quite good stayers on the flat. Don’t always get quite such a close contest between good chasing types and good flat stayers in the top 3m hurdles races. It was a shame Inglis Drever was missing the year My Way De Solzen won the WH, though I suppose Golden Cross was the flat stayer against the chasing type (My Way) in that race and made a good fist of it in coming a close second.
Anyone see a horse(s) outside the top four in the betting for the WH this time worth closer consideration? I can’t quite see one myself. Powerstation would be interesting for a possible place perhaps if it came up soft. Don’t know what has happened to Kazal this season (seems to be well off form) or whether he will even come to Cheltenham, but looks unlikely now that he will be building on his third in the race last year. Blazing Bailey – not easy perhaps to work out the conditions that best suit that horse and has given little cause for optimism about his chances the way he has run so far this season. Mobasher has run some good races this season, without ever looking quite good enough to win a WH – could certainly see him finishing in the top five though. United would have been interesting given the fourth she achieved in the 2007 WH, but the DN Mares race looks the target there. Not convinced Aitmatov would achieve any more in the WH this time than he managed last season. Mighty Man may not make the race and it probably won’t be the main target for the horse this season anyway. I see Nenuphar Collonges is still in the entries, though the betting suggests he is highly unlikely to run in the race. Would have added another interesting angle had Nenuphar been targeted at the race.
With Blazing Bailey so out of form this season I dont suppose its out of the question for Alan King to run Nenuphar Collonges. He likes the track. Might be E/W possibilities but hard to imagine he’d beat Big Bucks, Kasbah Bliss and Punchestowns on decent ground…on soft…might have a chance as I am not sure any of the top 3 are out and out stayers.
Yes, interesting to see that Nenuphar Collonges has been kept in the entries at the forfeit stage. I see there has been some support for Catch Me recently, though that horse is also still in the CH entries. An underestimated horse, I feel, though possibly neither the WH or the CH the type of races best suited to Catch Me.
Pah!! What’s Kasbah got to fear? on ANYgoing!! Go buy some money/fill yer boots!. THE banker of the festival now, surely.
How impressive was that??!!
He was the one to beat in March before today and he still remains the one to beat.
What a great ride from Pieux. Cool, stylish. No worries with him in the saddle come March.
As a confirmed Punchestowns fan, that performance by Kasbah Bliss has given me a little cause for concern. Very impressive.
Treated them with utter disdain.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Did he beat Duc De Regniere anymore impressively than Punchestowns did in the Long Walk? Wouldn’t be giving up on the Henderson horse yet Himself
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Yes, IC, he did.
Oh how I’m enjoying my first post on this thread now
As a confirmed Punchestowns fan, that performance by Kasbah Bliss has given me a little cause for concern. Very impressive.
Treated them with utter disdain.
He was value for treble his winning distance, Himself. His foot-perfect hurdling, if anything, will put the clumsy Punchestown to bed. Kasbah has undoubtably improved IMO.
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