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Like another of Nicky Richards’ earlier in the day, I thought Davy Condon was incredibly soft on Palomar. As I said before I don’t think he’s the most straight forward, and he did make a couple of jumping errors down the far side, but even when it looked likely that Kalahari King and Astarador were going to clear away I would have liked to have seen a little more effort.
It’s certainly not Arkle winning form though, whichever way you look at it (especially given the form of Howard Johnson’s horses at the moment, with his own admission that he’s not been able to work his stable properly due to the weather).
blue is very likely to run arkle, that as een hales plan for quite sometime, b4 he ran y,day he ran his heart out what a little trooper little blue is lol
hadn’t realized till I watched the racing on the telly yesterday how small he is, beckster [how big is he?]…we’ll be there on Arkle day as per usual and Mr Hales will be a complete nervous wreck again; nothing changes does it!
I was very pleased with I’msingingtheblues on Saturday as I had been with his 2 previous wins and even his narrow defeat to Briarus. Also glad he’s taking his chance in the Arkle as on anything but very soft ground I think he’ll have too much speed for Tatenen. The size thing may be a factor if they get a decent sized field, and with no outstanding favourite that seems likely.
I wasn’t too worried by Kalahari King’s run and again think even better ground will suit. Whether he gets that at Cheltenham is debateable given the winter we’ve had and their watering policy of recent years. Also remember Ferdy vaccinates his horses mid January time and they don’t tend to be over it until mid February, so it was pleasing that he ran so well.
It ppromises to be a great race and can see them betting 6/1 the field on the day, which will make for a great contest.It seemed as though Nicholls and Williams are a bit tentative about running the horse at Cheltenham. Williams stated that he doesnt know if the undulations of Cheltenham would suit the horse.
However, when RUK interviewed the owner, he immediately stated that Imsingingtheblues would go to Cheltenham.
I have been very impressed by both I’msingingtheblues and Kalahari King this season, and currently would see them together as very good value against the top two in the market, Tatenen and Calgary Bay. I wouldn’t be ruling out the top two at this stage, but I don’t think they have done enough this season to justify being so much shorter in the current market than I’msingingtheblues and Kalahari King. Compared to Tatenen’s record so far, I’msingingtheblues has been up against and beaten some far better horses this season over fences.
I have been slow to warm to I’msingingtheblues for the Arkle, mainly because of being influenced too much by a couple of widely expressed views about the horse that are now starting to look less defensible. One is the view expressed last season by Nic Mordin to the effect that the horse was a short runner and better suited by slow, tactical races on sharpish tracks. I can’t see the evidence for supporting that view now. I’msingingtheblues beat Snap Tie in a fairly strong run hurdles race last season at Cheltenham and chasing this season he has won a number of times off a strong gallop and appears to have been finishing each race pretty strongly. A galloping track particularly seems to suit.
The other view that was putting me off I’msingingtheblues for the Arkle is the notion that he is better suited by a flat track. Last season, he was a keen horse and didn’t settle particularly well and it probably made sense in that context to avoid stiff, undulating tracks. Having said that, he still managed to win on his first visit to Cheltenham and subsequent defeats over hurdles at that track possibly, in part, could be explained in terms of not being suited by the slow early pace in those race. The modest performance in the County Hurdle was perhaps less easy to dismiss, although again there was less pace in that race than there often is for a County Hurdle.
I think I’msingingtheblues has possibly settled in his races better this season and the normally strong pace in the Arkle should help in that regard too. On that basis, I wouldn’t be so worried about him handling a stiff, undulating track in terms of seeing out the trip and getting up the hill. He is a quick jumper, game, travels well generally and has the tactical speed to be very competitive in a fast run Arkle. On the downside, my concerns with I’msingingtheblues would be his size, given that there can be plenty of bumping and fighting for position in the Arkle and the more so with the likely big field this year. And perhaps there is also a slight concern that as I’msingingtheblues has looked so good winning on a flat, galloping track that getting into a rhythm is particularly important with this horse and the undulations and stiffish fences at Cheltenham can, of course, make it much harder to get into the right groove and particularly so where there is a good chance of encountering barging and crowding in the race.
my notes say that the Arkle winner needs to have been 140+ rated over hurdles; how do I find that out?
Having backed I’msingingtheblues at 29 a few weeks ago, I laid off my stake at 20 on Saturday thinking he was going to get pumped off 147 at Donny. Disaster. Imagine my surprise this morning when I discovered he was still 10/1 despite now being the clear form pick. I’ve backed him again.
I’m not a big fan of ante post gambling, but I wouldn’t swap my two bets for the race – Calgary Bay @ 40/1 and I’msingingtheblues @ 16/1 (a bit late there!)
Their Doncaster meeting and recent efforts suggest there’s not much between them and on form neither should be too far away.
I’msingingtheblues is never visually impressive, but his two CD wins at Doncaster suggest there’s plenty in reserve. His win on Saturday was very similar to his defeat of Calgary Bay. Like Calgary Bay, Doctor David was upsides at the last before ISTB pulled out more on the run-in.
I agree that Cheltenham may not suit, but he has a course victory to his name and shouldn’t be too far away.
I still fancy the big guy to reverse Donny form, though. It will be interesting if they jump the last together before tackling the hill – courage vs power. Who wins?
Imsingingtheblues has been raised to an official mark of 157 after his Doncaster win, which if I remember correctly, is 4lbs higher than Tidal Bay was going into the Arkle last year.
If you’re looking for confirmation that he ran to 140+ over hurdles, bear in mind that his hurdle rating will have been raised this season in line with his chase mark, even though he hasn’t run over hurdles. His hurdle mark was in fact raised from 139 to 147 this week.
Very pleased with the 16/1 I hold about Kalahari King. Likes Cheltenham. All the right ingredients for a Ferdy victory in my view.
Very pleased with the 16/1 I hold about Kalahari King. Likes Cheltenham. All the right ingredients for a Ferdy victory in my view.
I’m a big Ferdy fan, but his record in conditions races at the Festival is not too good, his ingrediants tend to result in handicap winners, but I am on as well so hope you are right.
In fairness to Ferdy, that may be because he now has better animals that can run in the higher class of race. Kalahari King was 4th in last years Supreme which is arguably the best hurdles form of any of the main protagonists for the Arkle. Must be solid each way.
Let`s hope he has decent going because Ferdy was quite clear he would be better for it in his interview on Racing UK today.
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