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Wondering whether to lay out now on Big Bucks………Got a shinny fiver on at 16s but I’m not sure he’ll repel Punchestowns in March..
At the start of the season PFN mentioned Big Buck’s in the same sentence as Denman and Kauto Star. Does Big Buck’s have more in hand, as the winner? I’ve only seen the race once, on replay.
Don’t know what a shinny fiver is, so you’d better make your own mind up.
Well done on your good day, and thankyou for being so friendly towards me.
Hello,
Did anyone else feel that Johnson’s ride on FAIR ALONG was a tad strange??
Why did he elect to go on the far side in between the last two hurdles, then promptly rejoin the two principals on the stand side after the last thus losing important ground??A very mystyfying decision from a seasoned horseman..
regards,
doyley
Hello,
Did anyone else feel that Johnson’s ride on FAIR ALONG was a tad strange??
Why did he elect to go on the far side in between the last two hurdles, then promptly rejoin the two principals on the stand side after the last thus losing important ground??A very mystyfying decision from a seasoned horseman..
Not sure about Johnson’s ride, but I did think Fair Along’s performance was encouraging and certainly justifies taking his place in the WH in March. He did lose important ground after the switch at the last, but Big Buck’s possibly had enough left to out muscle Fair Along up the hill on that ground had it come to a closer finish between the two.
The bad ground was not ideal for any of the first three, but arguably disadvantaged Fair Along the most as he is by far the smaller and least powerful of the placed horses. Some reason therefore for thinking that better ground and a faster pace in March might allow Fair Along to get even closer to the two that beat him yesterday. The other two, along with Kasbah Bliss, are rightly much shorter odds than Fair Along for the WH at this stage, but the 16/1 for Fair Along with one bookie last night didn’t look a bad each way price.
Of course, what we didn’t get in the race yesterday was a pace anything like that which can be expected in the WH. So far, only Kasbah Bliss of the first four in the current market has shown he can cope with the pace of a typical WH and fight out a close finish under those conditions. Big Buck’s certainly looks like he has the engine for it, but there will be less room for error with his hurdling come March (assuming better ground). With Fair Along, and possibly even Punchestowns, I would have some concerns about their ability to fully last home in a truly run WH – or, at least, those two have certainly got it still to prove.
Good to have three or four genuine competitors for the WH this time. Shame Kazal has not built on the promise he showed in finishing third in the WH last season or there would be another strong competitor to add to the mix.
My advice to Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty would be to employ different tactics with Punchestowns in the World Hurdle. I thought Geraghty went a bit early and gave Big Buck’s ( unnecessary apostrophe alert
) something to aim at yesterday.Punchestowns should track Big Buck’s next time out and I’m sure he would do him for speed up the run – in at the festival.
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Dont think punchestown truly acted on the ground and for me, hes still the best prospect for World hurdle, especially giving 8lbs away.
I concur with that sentiment, Clive.
I think Punchestown is the speedier horse, and his tactical pace will also help him to beat Big Bucks come March – as well as the 8lbs pull and better ground.
Surely Big Bucks will win grade one chases though….
Zip
Dont think yesterday was really that much of a shock to be honest. Nicholls has been pretty vocal for a few weeks now that he was confident Big Bucks would beat Punchestowns getting 8lbs from him.
The world hurdle division has IMO been lacklustre for some time now and exciting as it was to see one as good as punchestowns turn up (still think he deserves to be favorite for chelters and will be better on the day) it wasnt that unbelievable, from what nicholls has been saying (and how loudly he has been saying it) that he may have another in the same sort of league.
As it stands we have two very good contenders for the world hurdle in the shape of Big Bucks and Punchestowns, with Fair Along looking like becoming a serious contender the more we see him, and who knows Kasbah Bliss may have improvement on his second last year.
I think its going to be an exciting world hurdle this year.
A combination of meteorological history, and the general buffoonery of the Clerk of the Course.
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Puncehstowns was, according to Henderson, a little short of fitness and was attempting to concede 8lb to a smart (if engimatic) animal in Big Buck’s, so why has he gone from ‘superstar’ to ‘very good’ after one defeat?
The ground at Cheltenham wouldn’t have played to the strengths of a strong-travelling horse like Punchestowns either, so all in all he’s run pretty well (financial losses aside).
I still favour Kasbah Bliss though.
It hasn’t been mentioned before so I’ll share the following. Punchestowns seemed to me to be running up slightly light (a comment which was aimed at Diamond Harry too) in the paddock on Saturday, and he showed signs of a very hard race on returning to the winners enclosure, sweating profusely and blowing hard, whereas Big Buck’s came back looking like he’d barely had a race. I am now worried about whether Punchestowns can truly handle a vigorous campaign. That, and not the thorny issue of weight discrepancies is my big worry. If you are planning to lump on come March, I’d keep your money in your pockets until such time as you see him in the paddock on the day.
It hasn’t been mentioned before so I’ll share the following. Punchestowns seemed to me to be running up slightly light (a comment which was aimed at Diamond Harry too) in the paddock on Saturday
Good information rory. Please forgive my naive question, but what exactly does this mean and what effect would it have on the horse both on the day and in the coming weeks? Thanks!
People are underestimating Big Buck’s performance. Punchestowns was going to have to run up to something Inglis Drever’s highest ever mark to win on saturday.. Something which, on the ground, he was unlikely to do.
The front three should probably all be about the same price and Big Bucks probably represents the value. That said he will struggle to keep with Kasbah Bliss’ turn of foot.. Hopefully Doumen pulls Pieu aside and tells him to ride the race in the way they used to ride Baracouda. They should come fast and late.. Probably follow Ruby if it was me. It is certainly going to be a very interesting tactical race.
It hasn’t been mentioned before so I’ll share the following. Punchestowns seemed to me to be running up slightly light (a comment which was aimed at Diamond Harry too) in the paddock on Saturday
Good information rory. Please forgive my naive question, but what exactly does this mean and what effect would it have on the horse both on the day and in the coming weeks? Thanks!
It’s important for horses to retain condition when they are fit, but some struggle to keep weight on and can look very thin, or light in terms of muscle mass; it means that their ability to respond to a hard race and/or a rigorous training regime is compromised. Some horses can be brilliant over a short period but will struggle to maintain that form. The key for messrs Williams and Henderson is getting their charges to regain lost condition without losing fitness, which is a fine balancing act.
I reckon Diamond Harry is a prime candidate to bomb at Cheltenham- he’s looked slightly quirky and has had a good bit of racing.
Interesting stuff Rory. BTW, I enjoyed the radio suff at the weekend. Was delighted to hear far more of your goodself and Steadman than of Lorna, bless her.
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