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These three are the ones to avoid, (If my current track record continues)
All at Haydock
2.00 Rite To Reish (Nap)
2.35 Mutarakez
4.55 Amazour
THESE THREE ARE MY RESERVES ALL AT THE CURRAGH
2.15 ROUND TWO (RES 1 )
4.30 HURRICANE CASS (RES 2)
3.20 GLENEAGLES (RES 3)
My three this week are.
1.25 Newbury HARVARD MAN (NAP)
2.35 Newbury SALT ISLAND
3.10 Newbury DISSOLUTION
My three reserves are :- FIRM DECISION (1.45 Newmarket) 1st res
BRAVO ZOLO (2.50 Newmarket) 2nd res
BLADAWA (4.15 THIRSK) 3RD RES)
FOR MY MAIN THREE ALL ARE AT HAYDOCK
1.45 DAWN COMMANDER
3.25 BARIZAN
5.05 NOBLE LEGENDNAP
MY THREE BACK UP HORSES ARE
3.50 HEXHAM KNOCKALONG 1st RES
3.10 ASCOT SOLAR MAGIC 2nd RES
3.45 ASCOT HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 3rd RES
My three for Guineas weekend are
OL MAN RIVER 3.45 NEWMARKET (NAP)
TOP TUG 2.00 NEWMARKET
STEPPER POINT 2.30 NEWMARKET
HOPEFULLY I WON’T NEED THESE IN RESERVE BUT IF I DO, THEY ARE….
RES 1 PETITE PARISIENNE 4.25 PUNCHESTOWN
RES 2 RED REFRACTION 2.50 GOODWOOD
RES 3 HUMIDOR 3.25 GOODWOOD
Well done Pat in keeping score in this competition.
My final Ante Post Bets are :
Intilaaq (2,000 Guineas 2pt win 12/1 Bet 365, Ladbrokes & William Hill )
Together Forever (1,000 Guineas 2 pt win 8/1, Paddy Power )
Beautiful Romance (Oaks 2 pt win 12/1 Paddy, Ladbrokes, Corals, William Hill)
Intilaaq (Derby 2pt win Bet 365, Boylesport, Ladbrokes )
Hoping to get off the mark with
GRAND JESTURE (3.50 SANDOWN NAP )
MR MOLE (3.15 SANDOWN )
BOX OFFICE (4.25 SANDOWN )
So hopefully it’s a McCoy double
Last week I had a non runner so if that happens this time then it’s the flat to the rescue.
RES 1 VOLUNTEER POINT (4.05 HAYDOCK)
RES 2 VAN HUYSEN (4.45 LEICESTER)
RES 3 PAT HARKIN (4.50 LIMERICK)
Week 1 My three are:
I SHOT THE SHERRIFF 2.35 AYR
INDIAN CASTLE 3.45 AYR
BUCKSTAY 3.25 NEWBURY NAP
The better tipster won, Nenni. Shot into the lead with your 33/1 nap, but it was the smaller wins which help you kept there.
Still had the winner of the National
(my first since Silver Birch 
), just put the wrong one for this competition. 
Every winner in every race needs luck, no matter how small it’s still there. ESB had luck when Devon Loch did the split’s and Foinavon had luck when Popham Down brought everything else down.
The weights though I’m not entirely convinced about, you’ve got probably half a ton of horse, a few pounds isn’t going to make a great deal. Although it might make some, momentum is in my view more important.
Just like to add that even Frankel had his luck in winning, in that he never stepped in a hole and broke his leg, which could have happened.
I wouldn’t have want anything like that to happen, but it’s still a probability no matter how remote it is of happening.
I can’t disagree with any of that, homer. But years ago I dismissed my main form fancies Maori Venture and Rhyme ‘N’ Reason on account of their jumping only to end up watching them saunter home. I no longer dismiss anything on those grounds as sometimes the race can make them jump.
Anyone who joined the TV coverage at the start of the second circuit would be forgiven for asking what was the brilliant jumper in the red colours up at the front.
For what it’s worth, it will take some unusual circumstances for TDN to be back on my radar for next year. He’ll be much higher and it’s possible he might not enjoy a return visit. I’m already thinking about the Hennessy and what might emerge from that.
On that basis you would have dismissed West Tip in 1986 as he fell at Becher’s second time in 1985 going like the probable winner.
Every winner in every race needs luck, no matter how small it’s still there. ESB had luck when Devon Loch did the split’s and Foinavon had luck when Popham Down brought everything else down.
The weights though I’m not entirely convinced about, you’ve got probably half a ton of horse, a few pounds isn’t going to make a great deal. Although it might make some, momentum is in my view more important.
The race did fall into Red Rum’s lap in 1977. First you had Boom Docker a long way out in front, but even if he didn’t refused at the 17th he would have come back to them. Andy Pandy though looked very good until Becher’s second time, and then the was the bad jump by Churchtown Boy at the last.
Equally though in 1976 he should have been ridden more positively and in 1975 L’Escargot nearly fell early on.
Yes to me (getting back to Many Clouds) that he was a little lucky. The Druid’s Nephew looked to be going really well before not finding a leg to stand on (literally) the fence after Valentines second circuit. He was also lucky that quick thinking Ruby (Walsh) was on hand to move the rails and wave the chequered flag so that the field could bypass the Canal Turn (fence) and carry on with the race, while Balthazar King was being attended to, (hope he recovers). Al Co could have played a part too, but he fell at the first, and some were arguing that after Becher’s he didn’t like Aintree. Not every course suits certain horses Silviniaco Conti is a brilliant horse, just doesn’t like Cheltenham in my mind. But the biggest slice of luck for Many Clouds was he flopped in the Gold Cup, otherwise he wouldn’t ran.
But my argument is based on what he actually achieved yesterday. I’ve concluded the race fell into his lap. He won’t have anything more to carry next year in broad terms but other horses will have less in comparison.
I admit the weather conditions was a dry week leading up to the National, and although they vowed never to have it as firm as Mr Frisk’s National (1990) I bet the conditions was as firm as they let it. Officially the going was Good to Soft (Good in places) 6.6
Many Clouds the 21st eight year old to win since it turned into a handicap in 1843 was the fourth highest weighted eight year old ever. Only Vanguard (1843), Cortoluin (1867) and Royal Mail (1937)carried more as an eight year old, and the last two carried 11-13 now outside the weight range.
On the Official Rating side he was 1 pound well in since winning in January, showing that he was capable.
On the jumping side, he never touch a twig and seemed to have natural ability.
Next year, the conditions might be totally different, but he was very hard to pass.
I reckon he should be 25/1 to even run in it next year.
Most winners look like ‘naturals’, as do many of the placed horses, but how many actually run well the following year. Ballabriggs looked a natural and got round the following year running (on my figures) his previous form to the ounce but others were miles ahead of him at the finish.
One of the problems is that people ‘visualise’ without fully understanding handicapping. Even Newland said when the weights came out that Pineau De Re “would have won” last year with 8lbs more (as he was set to carry this time). Those 8lbs amount to 16 lengths in the National. That would put him back alongside Alvarado who got closer this year off a pound higher, which in turns backs the point about this race not taking as much winning.
If Many Clouds is entered next year his weight will depend on how he is campaigned. I reckon he was thought of as a Gold Cup contender this season. That was fine given how poor last year’s form was. Next year they’ll probably take the view that this year’s principals and top novices are a league ahead and there’s no point in taking them on so he might be campaigned to get back in off the same mark. That’s his only chance. And then he’ll need to hope other better-handicapped horses don’t show their form on the day.
Sounds like you’re a grudge against Many Clouds. He’s only 8 and according to the jockey went better than last year’s winner. Probably the best weight carrying performance since Suny Bay. Given the average amount of luck in running in future Nationals (not been brought down or carried out by loose horses) and that he remains in good health and race fit, he might equal or surpass Red Rum’s record of three wins.
I think it showed common sense what Ruby did, a lot of people these days seemed to have forgotten what that is. As for picking up the wrong flag, I think as a jockey he knows which flag to pick up. Otherwise he might ignore the flag like John White did in 1993.
Maybe it was weight which told in the Gold Cup, and by weight I mean Official Ratings.
He won the Betbright Cup Chase (24th January this year) on a mark of 161, in the Gold Cup he ran from a mark of 165 and in the Grand National he ran off a mark of 160. So within his highest winning mark.Also although not official figures the Racing Post Rating (in my opinion a useful tool, because it’s worked out constantly) shows that he ran a personal best in the January race.
