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I have an additional entry to put up here form the 5.50 Yarmouth.
John Gosden sends just the one entry here this afternoon in HARTSWELL, the son of Nathaniel who had a winner at this meeting last week, the trainer has a highly respectable 26% win return over the past five seasons with a 38% at Yarmouth with his juveniles.
William Buick turns up on two good rides for Gosden and Stoute this evening (Stoute runner Aflame 18.50). Buick’s rides to date are 112 (66.66%), Buick does not turn up here that often, all of the 2015 season just two rides and one win. Stoute has only sent one to Yarmouth tonight in AFLAME. but the trainer failed 0-8 last season here and has been a couple of seasons he has not really been subject to sending his entries to Yarmouth, so significantly it could win, but it looks like Buick has come for the boss’s mount.
HARTSWELL : 2pt Win @ 13/8 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
The only bet during the midweek racing comes from Leopardstown on Thursday evening in the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes.
Stall 2 has been very successful over the previous years returning 4-17 (24%) and have had 8-17 on the place market (42%) and is showing a healthy profit of +14.5.
STALL 2 : BONDI BEACH
Entries that won on their last race course visit has returned 9-42 (21%) but have made a significant loss on the market returns. The horses age has reflected that three year old’s have 7-74 (9%) with four year old’s returning a 21% return 6-29, Entries that carry top weight in this race have a 50% strike rate 1-2 and 100% when rated 118.
Selection
BONDI BEACH : 3pt Win
Darren P Goodbody
Today’s selection comes from Brighton
Chris Dwyer has an excellent strike rate with runners at the seaside venue over previous years with a 22% strike rate and 4-22 on his runners, De Sousa is booked to ride the entry for the only entry for the trainer at the course.
VINNIEVANBAILEYS 14.20 Brighton
1pt Win @ 10/3 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
14:00 – Mount Logan
14:35 – Thikriyaat ***NAP***
15.10 – Franklin D
15:45 – Marsha
16:20 – Rusumaat
16:55 – Besharah
17:30 – Sabre SquadronDarren P Goodbody
14:00 – Dwight D
14:35 – Intelligence Cross
15:10 – Commissioned ***NAP***
15:45 – Yarrow
16:20 – Rhododendron
16:55 – Montataire
17:30 – LathomDarren P Goodbody
i actually thought Dettori was too confident on GA two furlongs out, the horse just did not pick up, nothing in the locker when push came to shove…the horse is better than that and has been beaten by The Last Lion again.
Darren P Goodbody
Today’s bet comes at the Sandown night meeting and the 8.10pm
GLORYETTE
Ed Dunlop’s entry here has dropped another 2lb and looks well handicapped now to land a blow on his 6th career run, he has been beaten significantly on all of his starts to date, but has been tackling further distances and drops back to 9f for the first time. Being by Raven’s Pass this drop back should be a lot easier.
GLORYETTE :1pt each way @ 13/2 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
You get the feeling that on any given day any one of them Galileo Gold and The Gurkha can beat the other. There’s very little between them.
Ribchester can pick up a group one somewhere.
Awtaad needs jumping ground.
Totally agree with Ribchester, that was a convincing performance and wonder if they would send him back to York next month to run in the International Stakes, if getting good to firm ground is a contender.
Darren P Goodbody
The fact that The Gurkha has been nicely drawn to get a good toe into the race, and back to a mile is probably his potential index. The soft ground looked to get the better of him in the St James’s Palace against Galileo Gold, you cannot deny he bumped into a serious middle distance horse in Hawkbill who’s form speaks for its self and on soft ground again to be beaten half a length was a way forward. The Gurkha is obviously bred to get 12f, but not all progeny of the great sire get that middle distant index. Th dam Chintz did not make a pleasing transition from 2 to 3, unplaced on all nine starts, but mainly was running on soft to heavy ground with only one run in today’s conditions in the Coronation Stakes. but i always thought Chintz was used as a pace setting horse as she was most of the time out there to set the fractions.
I would like to think The Gurkha will have to much speed over 8f to reverse the defeat to Galileo Gold, Awtaad is the danger for me who’s sire Cape Cross was far superior on fast ground and won over course and distance as a three year old and went on to win the Group 2 Celebration Mile on good to firm ground
The Gurkha & Awtaad forecast for me reversed, very close between them on this going
Darren P Goodbody
14:00 – Poyle Thomas
14.35 : The Major General
15.10 : The Gurkha (NAP)
15.45 : Global Applause
16.20 : Suffragette City
16.55 : Shaan
17.25 : Twin SailsDarren P Goodbody
Wednesday’s first race to look at is the Richmond Stakes which has provided us with a poor five runner affair which is the lowest field over the past two decades. The relevant stalls that have won this race in the past the most successful is Stall 3 which has won this renewal on five occasions, but has failed since 2002. Stall 6 has won this on three occasions and Stall 5 twice who has won two of the past three renewals.
Stall 3 : Mehmas (3/1)
Stall 5 : Waqaas (33/1)Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes made this race their own over the past eight years winning the race on five occasions and are well represented here with Mehmas. John Gosden has won this twice which included last years winner Shaala and their representative here is Ardad who will have to step up after being defeated by Mehmas in the July Stakes.
MEHMAS (3/1) (BOG)
The Goodwood Cup has not thrown many outside priced winners in recent years. with the biggest price being 8/1 over the past thirteen years. Draw advantage is not that significant, but Stall 10 has won this race on two occasions from the past four renewals.
Stall 10 : Sueigoo (33/1)
The most successful draw has been stall 2 who also won this last year.
Stall 2 : Quest For More (8/1)
Over the past ten renewals age 6 has won this four times whilst age 4 & 5 have won this race on three occasions each.
Age 4 – Sandro Botticelli, The Twisler
Age 5 – Big Orange, Curbyourenthusiasm, Glaring, Kinema
Age 6 – Commissioned, Quest For MoreNo horse has returned to land this race since Double Trigger back in 1997 & 1998
QUEST FOR MORE : 8/1 (BOG) each way
The Lillie Langtry Stakes has seen three big price winners over the past seven renewals with the other four consisting of odds not above 6/1. Stall 5 has been the most successful in past years landing this race on four occasions, wiht stall 1 not far behind with three wins, four year old winning this race on six occasions but not in the past three renewals.
Stall 1 : Mill Springs (4/1)
Stall 5 : Twitch (6/1)4 year old’s – California, Mill Springs, Pamona, Twitch and Yarrow
John Gosden has never won this race since 2003 and is represented here with both California and Mill Springs. Sir Michael Stoute apart from the Cecil camp has won this race on two occasions, but nothing since 2007.
Both stall 1 & 5 have won this race when the ground has come up good to firm with stall 5 just shading the stats 2-1.
TWITCH : 6/1 (BOG)
Selections
MEHMAS
QUEST FOR MORE
TWITCHDarren P Goodbody
The Nazca Lines once more showed that Chester was a track that is far to sharp, could see a more better run at a undulated course in the future, Catterick maybe.
One bet today comes at Ayr
Richard Fahey sends dozens of horses out week in and week out, even though he is 0-5 at the course this year and only has a 12% return overall for the past five seasons, his second string here on paper should come on form debut run which saw her finish behind Asidious Alexander who went on to finish seventh in the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes. That race though is working out not to bad, Hope Solo franked the form at Chester then went on to finish down the field to Miss Danvers at Newbury Weatherby Sprint. the third Turanga Leela recently won on the all weather and the sixth Laureate has improved by running second at Carlisle two weeks ago.
TEMERITY : 1pt each way @ 8/1 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
Glorious Goodwood
The Gordon Stakes has thrown up not a real significance on the draw, but Stall 7 has won the race on four occasions and is the leading stall from the past twenty years. Stall 3 has won this race on three occasions which included last year.
Stall 3 : Goldmember (16/1)
Stall 7 : The Major General(10/1)The last twelve years has not seen bigger odd than 7/1 with only one odds on shot landing the race. There has only been two double figure odd winners.
The Sussex Stakes is the Group 1 on the card and the feature, Stall 3 has been the most successful winning the race on five occasions, Stall 7 has won this on four occasions.
Stall 3 : The Gurkha (9/4)
Stall 7 : Richard Pankhurst (50/1)Four of the past six renewals has gone to the odds on favourite in the race with only one double figure price winning since 1997.
The Molecomb Stakes has seen the past three renewals go to low draws, both Stall 1 and 2 have won this race on three occasions a piece.
Stall 1 : Global Applause (5/1)
Stall 2 : The Last Lion (3/1)Over the past ten renewals there has not been many double figure winners, just the one,with the biggest return averaging around 9/2.Only one jockey since 1997 has returned back to back in this race which was Richard Hughes on Zebedee and Monsieur Chevalier who were winning favourites.
Selections
The Gurkha (9/4) (BOG)
Global Applause (5/1) (BOG)Darren P Goodbody
Glorious Goodwood
The Vintage Stakes has seen two significant draws land this race over past renewals which are Stalls 6 & 9 – both have landed the race on four occasions with the past five renewals they are all square at 2-2.
Stall 6 : Isomer (12/1) ew
Stall 9 : Jackhammer (25/1) ewOver the past nine renewals there has not been a larger SP than 9/2, why the above could be set for a place play at best.
The Lennox Stakes has a significant stall winner which has been stall 5 who has landed this race on five occasions
Stall 5 : Dream Dubai (25/1) ew
Stall 1 has won this race on two occasions.
Stall 1 : Buckstay (14/1) ew
There has only been two double figure prices to win this race over the past sixteen years, but none over the past eleven years with the highest SP returning at 7/1
This is Day one – Good Luck
Selections
Isomer (12/1) (BOG) ew
Buckstay (14/1) (BOG) ewDarren P Goodbody
