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16.20 Huntingdon
MR FENTON & SILVERHOW
There is becoming some decent bumpers over the past few days and this one looks more interesting to the fact we have two progeny of Yeats in the field for Seven Barrows. Peter Carberry gets ‘SILVERHOW‘ and David Bass gets aboard ‘Thomas Campbell’
Out of the pair i am more reluctant to swing towards the mount of Peter Carberry on Silverhow who is making is debut under rules this afternoon. The Yeats off spring is out of Irish bumper winner Monte Solaro, who went on to win a handicap hurdle in her career commanding a rating of 96, but did run off handicap marks of around 104. The dam-sire Key of Luck won t the Dubai Carnival as a five year old and netted a career prize money of around 240K.
Thomas Campbell has the same sire, but is out of 150 rated hurdler Hora who’s best performance was when runner up in a Listed hurdle at Cheltenham, her sire was the mighty Hernando, who had landed the Prix du Jockey Club and Prix Lupin in his career, as we all know the career of Yeats and looking at both in the market the one i actually like is a three time the price tag which has given me the incentive to back him each way.
I want to dutch in this race, purely as a like one at another good price in ‘MR FENTON‘ who for me was very eye catching on debut at Chepstow on ground that had come up really heavy. He was held up through out the race by Richie McLernon, and despite being ridden to get into contention, he actually made up a considerable lot of ground over the last two furlongs to be defeated by eight lengths.
The bumper is not throwing up any big winners of late, actually it is turning out to be a weak bumper, but Mr Fenton looks to have something different and was probably extremely green in the race. Stable jockey gets back on board this afternoon and be interesting to see if Coleman holds him up gain or goes gung ho from the front.
Reading some of the comments revolving around Bags Groove second to Alan King’s Criq Rock was a hot bumper, i actually have reservations that it was not. It is possible that the front two in the betting were far superior to the field as they finished under two lengths apart, but had pulled fourteen lengths away form their contenders.
He has been put in at 7/4 to land this race for Harry Fry, as as the trainer does not send that many to Huntingdon bumpers, just three in the past five seasons which has resulted in a 33% strike rate. At the price there is much more value in the race to take him on even though the front two from his bumper at Ascot are probably slightly better than their form suggests.
MR FENTON : 1pt each way @ 12/1 (BOG)
SILVERHOW : 1pt each way @ 10/1 (BOG)Darren P Goodbody
16.30 Warwick
REILLY’S MINOR
This actually looks a competitive bumper with some interesting potential on show, With all the weather and cancelling of meetings two that have had previous engagements is Nicky Henderson’s ‘STOWAWAY MAGIC‘ and Nigel Twiston-Davies ‘Ballycash‘ who are both coming out of the p2p ranks. The former is sired by Stowaway who won three of his six career runs which included the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes. He had sired the likes of Grade 2 Foreria Chase winner Hidden Cyclone, West Yorkshire Hurdle winner Kilcooley, he is related to Champion bumper and Supreme Novices winner Champagne Fever, you would have to hope he has succeeded with his father’s genes with his mother and dam Irish Mystics who had a career of 0-24 commanding as highest rating of 81 over hurdles. On pedigree and related to some useful performers he should be making a pleasing debut under rules, my slight concern is the soft ground, but if he is fully wound up this could be a steering job for Nick de Boinville.
Ballycash finally’s gets the race course after several entries gone astray, the p2p recruit is lovely bred by Kalanisi who won six of his eleven starts which include the Grade 1 Breeders Cup turf. He has produced top progeny’s with the likes of Barters Hill, Barizan and the great Katchit to name some. At least the dam Waterlily had a few career wins around the hurdling and chasing ranks, she even won on debut around this sphere. Even though Kalanisi won on soft ground i would prefer to of seen him on quicker ground, but definitely one to watch in this.
Both Philip Hobbs and Evan Williams have respectable entries here, ‘Shambougg‘ represents the Hobbs team who finished third first time under rules at Catterick. Sixteen lengths off winner High Bridge he looks like he should improve for the run and with the yard back among the winners this month 6-16 (37%) the son of Tobougg would probably have to step up on his Catterick run to fend off some useful bred types. ‘Shrewd Tactic’ is Evan Williams entry here, another that is making his debut under rules is by Grade 1 Sword Dancer Invitational Handicap winning sire Broadway Flyer who was not renown for producing great national hunt off springs, with Broadway Flyer the most memorable holding a rating of 151. The dam Taking My Time was un-raced through Listed Autumn Stakes winner High Roller.
Evan Williams has not been one of the hottest yards of late returning a 1-17 in the past fourteen days.The trainer is 2-9 though with his bumper entries this season at Warwick, and even though stat’s can be persuasive he would have to be pretty sharp on debut to land this convincingly. The selection comes from the Warren Greatrex stables in ‘REILLY’S MINOR‘ who is just one of few making his under rules debut.
Falling on his sole run around the p2p cicuit he comes here with a good reputation for trainer Warren Greatrex who has a return 33% with his bumpers here at Warwick. He should be coping with the conditions being by soft ground sire Westerner out of an average mare Ringzar,Back to his p2p run he was very unlucky when two lengths clear and the race at his mercy to blunder and fell at the last. Reilly’s Minor is related to World Hurdler winner Cole Harden. Arkle Trophy Chase winner Western Warhorse and the Altcar Novices Chase winner Wakanda who all had superb form on soft ground.
It would be interesting not to see a drift on him once the market opens, currently at 11/4 with most firms I will be looking around for a bit of 7/2 in the morning which would give me the incentive to back him again once the market drops and he is backed in again.
REILLY’S MINOR : 2pt Win @ 11/4 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
what a poor race indeed – Nothing attempted to go with the front two – watching the race it was like it was already worked out who would win, jockeys behind not even bothered
Darren P Goodbody
12.50 Leopardstown
JACK THE WIRE
With most of the field averaging over 25/1 the three main contestants here look to be ‘Don’t Touch It’ which sounds as crude as a xxx movie, Willie Mullin’s ‘Beau Home’ and the selection ‘JACK THE WIRE‘. The J.P.McManus’s entry here Don’t Touch It has been put in as the 4/6f to land this maiden hurdle and with the six year old having to contend with two runner up spots since diverting over the sticks, the son of Scorpion has the best line of form coming into this with a debut runners up spot behind Graded non finisher Stone Hard, and on boxing day he was seen finishing behind A Tol Phil who is expected to win this afternoon on the same card. Mark Walsh retains the partnership, but with only the one winner from ten mounts this season over hurdles here at Leopardstown I am willing to take him on at the price on offer.
Willie Mullin’s Beau Home has not really shown enough to suggest he can win a maiden of this nature, his odds are short enough around 9/4 purely as Ruby Walsh has the mount. He was seen finishing fourth last time over course and distance when pulling too hard for his own good and never settled.He was a length and three quarters behind Billy’s Hope that day and with the latter running exceptionally well again when just beaten on the line here at Punchestown. His was third behind 2016 Champion Bumper contender Augusta Kate in a Listed bumper encourages he holds ability.
My selection comes from the Denis Hogan yard in ‘JACK THE WIRE‘ who is making his first appearance over hurdles after what I would say was a successful NHF career. The son of Scorpion also was seen finishing fourth in a Listed Bumper at Navan which had either had winners or is now becoming a strong bumper with the runner already winning over hurdles when beating Willie Miullin’s Pyleonthepressure. His last bumper run came here at Leopardstown when finishing third to a smart recruit of Mullin’s in Lucky Pass who is destine for bigger things, if he puts his past two runs around his flat career he would definitely for me give the top two in the market something to think about.
JACK THE WIRE :1pt Each Way @ 8/1
Darren P Goodbody
Sadly I miss this years festival due to other commitments, but never-less I will be having my pound of flesh on Barters Hill for the Albert Bartlett, also I think a big chance i will take on is Mullin’s Limini who is looking set at present for the Mares Novice Hurdle
Darren P Goodbody
1.15 Ascot – Bold Batchelor (NAP)
1.55 Navan – Organisedconfusion
1.30 Haydock – Bristol De MaiReserves
1.45 Lingfield – War Department
3.00 Ascot – Sire De Grugy
2.55 Lingfield – AnglophileDarren P Goodbody
Haydock 15.50
GOOHAR
At the top of the handicap here is James Moffattt’s ‘Morning Royalty‘ who finished runner up here at Haydock on his last start when behind Lucinda Russel’s Throthethatch. He looked all over the winner from three out when left in the lead to be run down from two out. With a rating of 120 he was being beaten that day by a horse that was probably well handicapped and dropping back in trip this afternoon he should really be making amends.
With only a 1lb between them at the weights Lucinda Russell could have another troublesome entry here for Morning Royalty in ‘Island Confusion‘ who comes into this off the back of a good second at Newcastle just before Christmas. He was jt fav for the Gosforth Park contest with Gold Opera and had to concede 10lb at the weights, he ran creditably to be defied by one and a half lengths, but the form is not looking solid with Gold Opera being beaten soundly at Ayr when off a 7lb penalty. Another rise of 3lb for the 8 year old and is currently 0-8 in his jumping career and would probably have to step up off 119 to land this.
Henry Daley’s ‘GOOHAR‘ has started to get the hang of things now chasing,a really good second to Cloonacool at Ludlow looks solid form for Zamdy Man on the same card. Goohar is probably handicapped at present below his ability off 117 and with Tom O’Brien keeping the ride can only show positivity who won nicely on a maiden horse of Daley’s Briery Belle last week. ‘Little Jimmy‘ has been a revelation for trainer Tom Gretton, his comfortable win on New Years Eve at Uttoxeter when beating 113 rated Capilla was impressive.
Felix de Giles record on the horse is definitely the eye catcher and on heavy ground (1124231) they have a 42% strike rate. Being unplaced only once from seven outings on this ground he would have a lot in his favour, bottom weight of 10st 12lb, Felix de Giles, heavy ground performer, the fact he is only running off 106 there is a lot to like about him. He seems to travel strongly throughout his races, he is most definitely my adversary for my selection.
GOOHAR : 2pt Win @ 4/1 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
Haydock 13.30
BRISTOL DE MAI
Firstly I would like to thank the kind and welcoming words, I am excited about being here, on to Haydock Park on Saturday brings up a challenging Grade 2 event in the Altcar Novices Chase. Kerry Lee can do no wrong at present with her chasers and she is well represented here with Kylemore Lough who got the better of the useful Dunraven Storm at Exeter on serious bottomless ground. The seven year old looked to be holding the Hobbs entry throughout the race and even when he looked like tiring in the closing stages, he pulled out a bit more to record a two and a half length superiority.
On that performance I personally have Kylemore Lough rating around 152, he gets into this off a current chase mark of 147 so there is still improvement to come you would of thought and is definitely not out of this giving the trainers superb form on television on Saturday afternoons. Venetia Williams is double handed here with ‘Otago Trail‘ and ‘Zamdy Man‘ and you could actually give both a claim in this despite 12pts difference in the market.
The latter has a consistent fair of form around Haydock (2112) and has won on heavy going when winning the Listed Rossington Main Novices Hurdle back in 2014 which is usually a race that has seen hurdlers going on to compete in the same years Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. He finished his hurdling career when fifth to The New One in the Grade 2 International Hurdle, and after a year out of the game he made his chasing debut at Plumpton when seven lengths behind 2013 Champion Bumper runner up Regal Encore.
He was put in as the 5/6f that day and even though he was beaten convincingly on chase debut, the runner up Cloonacool franked that form six days ago at Ludlow. Zamby Man is probably rated around 142 for this and even though second string for the stable, he will have to improve to trouble the big guns in this. Venetia’s other entry and current tissue fav is Otago Trial who has now won two of his three encounters over the larger obstacles. The ground has definitely come right for son of Heron Island with heavy ground form showing (1111) he deserves to be as short as he is in the market.
He has brushed aside the likes of Ascot BGC Partners Handicap Chase winner Mon Successor by seven lengths and the Dick Hunt Trophy winner Saint Ralph to thirty six lengths. I personally would have him around 159 for a Grade race of this type and getting into this off 154 he has to be taken seriously especially in undefeated ground. With a 7lb pull the selection BRISTOL DE MAI owes owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede nothing, they have some nice individuals in training at present especially the likes of Sceau Royal, Le Ami Serge and Ballykan.
The selection and first season chaser has taken to the larger obstacles with confidence, notching up two wins and two seconds which included a runner up spot to a horse I do rate in Ar Mad of Gary Moore’s. His last run came over Christmas in what was probably a shoe in when going off as 1/3f. He did not disappoint when winning by seven lengths, the fact that he jumps smartly and the reason he lost to Ar Mad as the trip was far too short over two miles on quicker ground, he tackles heavy ground for only the second time in his career, which saw him win The Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle by six lengths, he is adaptable and can make all in his races which may just suit here at Haydock.
BRISTOL DE MAI : 2pts Win @ 9/4 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
