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18.30 Dundalk
SHINYHAPPYJOHN
Right at the bottom of the weights here is John Nash’s Shinyhappyjohn who seems to run reasonably well around this time of year (Form – 3334). He steps back up to 6f this evening in what looks a very average looking handicap.
His only 2lb higher than when finishing runner up over course and distance back in December and off 8st 6lb which he last run off he finished runner up when off a rating of 66, he is in theory 9lb well in on that 2015 mark and would have him in the mix here.
1pt Each Way @ 13/2 (BOG)
20.30 – Dundalk
DEEDS NOT WORDS
Has not really come to hand since leaving Mick Channon’s before Christmas, but never less he ran well last time over course and distance when only finishing two lengths off the winner. Poetic Choice finished in front of him that day to one and three quarter lengths when conceding 5lb at the weights.
They meet off the same terms this evening and i feel with a swifter passage he could go close under Ronan Whelan who rides the horse for the first time. He met all sorts of trouble last time and came into contention easily to only find a wall of horses in his way and no where to go under Gary Carroll, with a stat return of 2-9 (22%) you would like to feel they have the right man on board this evening.
2pt Win @ 9/4
Darren P Goodbody
I was given a strong word for Deeds not Words this morning, lets hope he bolts in.
good luck PTW and welcome to the forum.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Haydock 13.30
BRISTOL DE MAI
Firstly I would like to thank the kind and welcoming words, I am excited about being here, on to Haydock Park on Saturday brings up a challenging Grade 2 event in the Altcar Novices Chase. Kerry Lee can do no wrong at present with her chasers and she is well represented here with Kylemore Lough who got the better of the useful Dunraven Storm at Exeter on serious bottomless ground. The seven year old looked to be holding the Hobbs entry throughout the race and even when he looked like tiring in the closing stages, he pulled out a bit more to record a two and a half length superiority.
On that performance I personally have Kylemore Lough rating around 152, he gets into this off a current chase mark of 147 so there is still improvement to come you would of thought and is definitely not out of this giving the trainers superb form on television on Saturday afternoons. Venetia Williams is double handed here with ‘Otago Trail‘ and ‘Zamdy Man‘ and you could actually give both a claim in this despite 12pts difference in the market.
The latter has a consistent fair of form around Haydock (2112) and has won on heavy going when winning the Listed Rossington Main Novices Hurdle back in 2014 which is usually a race that has seen hurdlers going on to compete in the same years Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. He finished his hurdling career when fifth to The New One in the Grade 2 International Hurdle, and after a year out of the game he made his chasing debut at Plumpton when seven lengths behind 2013 Champion Bumper runner up Regal Encore.
He was put in as the 5/6f that day and even though he was beaten convincingly on chase debut, the runner up Cloonacool franked that form six days ago at Ludlow. Zamby Man is probably rated around 142 for this and even though second string for the stable, he will have to improve to trouble the big guns in this. Venetia’s other entry and current tissue fav is Otago Trial who has now won two of his three encounters over the larger obstacles. The ground has definitely come right for son of Heron Island with heavy ground form showing (1111) he deserves to be as short as he is in the market.
He has brushed aside the likes of Ascot BGC Partners Handicap Chase winner Mon Successor by seven lengths and the Dick Hunt Trophy winner Saint Ralph to thirty six lengths. I personally would have him around 159 for a Grade race of this type and getting into this off 154 he has to be taken seriously especially in undefeated ground. With a 7lb pull the selection BRISTOL DE MAI owes owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede nothing, they have some nice individuals in training at present especially the likes of Sceau Royal, Le Ami Serge and Ballykan.
The selection and first season chaser has taken to the larger obstacles with confidence, notching up two wins and two seconds which included a runner up spot to a horse I do rate in Ar Mad of Gary Moore’s. His last run came over Christmas in what was probably a shoe in when going off as 1/3f. He did not disappoint when winning by seven lengths, the fact that he jumps smartly and the reason he lost to Ar Mad as the trip was far too short over two miles on quicker ground, he tackles heavy ground for only the second time in his career, which saw him win The Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle by six lengths, he is adaptable and can make all in his races which may just suit here at Haydock.
BRISTOL DE MAI : 2pts Win @ 9/4 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
Haydock 15.50
GOOHAR
At the top of the handicap here is James Moffattt’s ‘Morning Royalty‘ who finished runner up here at Haydock on his last start when behind Lucinda Russel’s Throthethatch. He looked all over the winner from three out when left in the lead to be run down from two out. With a rating of 120 he was being beaten that day by a horse that was probably well handicapped and dropping back in trip this afternoon he should really be making amends.
With only a 1lb between them at the weights Lucinda Russell could have another troublesome entry here for Morning Royalty in ‘Island Confusion‘ who comes into this off the back of a good second at Newcastle just before Christmas. He was jt fav for the Gosforth Park contest with Gold Opera and had to concede 10lb at the weights, he ran creditably to be defied by one and a half lengths, but the form is not looking solid with Gold Opera being beaten soundly at Ayr when off a 7lb penalty. Another rise of 3lb for the 8 year old and is currently 0-8 in his jumping career and would probably have to step up off 119 to land this.
Henry Daley’s ‘GOOHAR‘ has started to get the hang of things now chasing,a really good second to Cloonacool at Ludlow looks solid form for Zamdy Man on the same card. Goohar is probably handicapped at present below his ability off 117 and with Tom O’Brien keeping the ride can only show positivity who won nicely on a maiden horse of Daley’s Briery Belle last week. ‘Little Jimmy‘ has been a revelation for trainer Tom Gretton, his comfortable win on New Years Eve at Uttoxeter when beating 113 rated Capilla was impressive.
Felix de Giles record on the horse is definitely the eye catcher and on heavy ground (1124231) they have a 42% strike rate. Being unplaced only once from seven outings on this ground he would have a lot in his favour, bottom weight of 10st 12lb, Felix de Giles, heavy ground performer, the fact he is only running off 106 there is a lot to like about him. He seems to travel strongly throughout his races, he is most definitely my adversary for my selection.
GOOHAR : 2pt Win @ 4/1 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
12.50 Leopardstown
JACK THE WIRE
With most of the field averaging over 25/1 the three main contestants here look to be ‘Don’t Touch It’ which sounds as crude as a xxx movie, Willie Mullin’s ‘Beau Home’ and the selection ‘JACK THE WIRE‘. The J.P.McManus’s entry here Don’t Touch It has been put in as the 4/6f to land this maiden hurdle and with the six year old having to contend with two runner up spots since diverting over the sticks, the son of Scorpion has the best line of form coming into this with a debut runners up spot behind Graded non finisher Stone Hard, and on boxing day he was seen finishing behind A Tol Phil who is expected to win this afternoon on the same card. Mark Walsh retains the partnership, but with only the one winner from ten mounts this season over hurdles here at Leopardstown I am willing to take him on at the price on offer.
Willie Mullin’s Beau Home has not really shown enough to suggest he can win a maiden of this nature, his odds are short enough around 9/4 purely as Ruby Walsh has the mount. He was seen finishing fourth last time over course and distance when pulling too hard for his own good and never settled.He was a length and three quarters behind Billy’s Hope that day and with the latter running exceptionally well again when just beaten on the line here at Punchestown. His was third behind 2016 Champion Bumper contender Augusta Kate in a Listed bumper encourages he holds ability.
My selection comes from the Denis Hogan yard in ‘JACK THE WIRE‘ who is making his first appearance over hurdles after what I would say was a successful NHF career. The son of Scorpion also was seen finishing fourth in a Listed Bumper at Navan which had either had winners or is now becoming a strong bumper with the runner already winning over hurdles when beating Willie Miullin’s Pyleonthepressure. His last bumper run came here at Leopardstown when finishing third to a smart recruit of Mullin’s in Lucky Pass who is destine for bigger things, if he puts his past two runs around his flat career he would definitely for me give the top two in the market something to think about.
JACK THE WIRE :1pt Each Way @ 8/1
Darren P Goodbody
what a poor race indeed – Nothing attempted to go with the front two – watching the race it was like it was already worked out who would win, jockeys behind not even bothered
Darren P Goodbody
16.30 Warwick
REILLY’S MINOR
This actually looks a competitive bumper with some interesting potential on show, With all the weather and cancelling of meetings two that have had previous engagements is Nicky Henderson’s ‘STOWAWAY MAGIC‘ and Nigel Twiston-Davies ‘Ballycash‘ who are both coming out of the p2p ranks. The former is sired by Stowaway who won three of his six career runs which included the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes. He had sired the likes of Grade 2 Foreria Chase winner Hidden Cyclone, West Yorkshire Hurdle winner Kilcooley, he is related to Champion bumper and Supreme Novices winner Champagne Fever, you would have to hope he has succeeded with his father’s genes with his mother and dam Irish Mystics who had a career of 0-24 commanding as highest rating of 81 over hurdles. On pedigree and related to some useful performers he should be making a pleasing debut under rules, my slight concern is the soft ground, but if he is fully wound up this could be a steering job for Nick de Boinville.
Ballycash finally’s gets the race course after several entries gone astray, the p2p recruit is lovely bred by Kalanisi who won six of his eleven starts which include the Grade 1 Breeders Cup turf. He has produced top progeny’s with the likes of Barters Hill, Barizan and the great Katchit to name some. At least the dam Waterlily had a few career wins around the hurdling and chasing ranks, she even won on debut around this sphere. Even though Kalanisi won on soft ground i would prefer to of seen him on quicker ground, but definitely one to watch in this.
Both Philip Hobbs and Evan Williams have respectable entries here, ‘Shambougg‘ represents the Hobbs team who finished third first time under rules at Catterick. Sixteen lengths off winner High Bridge he looks like he should improve for the run and with the yard back among the winners this month 6-16 (37%) the son of Tobougg would probably have to step up on his Catterick run to fend off some useful bred types. ‘Shrewd Tactic’ is Evan Williams entry here, another that is making his debut under rules is by Grade 1 Sword Dancer Invitational Handicap winning sire Broadway Flyer who was not renown for producing great national hunt off springs, with Broadway Flyer the most memorable holding a rating of 151. The dam Taking My Time was un-raced through Listed Autumn Stakes winner High Roller.
Evan Williams has not been one of the hottest yards of late returning a 1-17 in the past fourteen days.The trainer is 2-9 though with his bumper entries this season at Warwick, and even though stat’s can be persuasive he would have to be pretty sharp on debut to land this convincingly. The selection comes from the Warren Greatrex stables in ‘REILLY’S MINOR‘ who is just one of few making his under rules debut.
Falling on his sole run around the p2p cicuit he comes here with a good reputation for trainer Warren Greatrex who has a return 33% with his bumpers here at Warwick. He should be coping with the conditions being by soft ground sire Westerner out of an average mare Ringzar,Back to his p2p run he was very unlucky when two lengths clear and the race at his mercy to blunder and fell at the last. Reilly’s Minor is related to World Hurdler winner Cole Harden. Arkle Trophy Chase winner Western Warhorse and the Altcar Novices Chase winner Wakanda who all had superb form on soft ground.
It would be interesting not to see a drift on him once the market opens, currently at 11/4 with most firms I will be looking around for a bit of 7/2 in the morning which would give me the incentive to back him again once the market drops and he is backed in again.
REILLY’S MINOR : 2pt Win @ 11/4 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
16.20 Huntingdon
MR FENTON & SILVERHOW
There is becoming some decent bumpers over the past few days and this one looks more interesting to the fact we have two progeny of Yeats in the field for Seven Barrows. Peter Carberry gets ‘SILVERHOW‘ and David Bass gets aboard ‘Thomas Campbell’
Out of the pair i am more reluctant to swing towards the mount of Peter Carberry on Silverhow who is making is debut under rules this afternoon. The Yeats off spring is out of Irish bumper winner Monte Solaro, who went on to win a handicap hurdle in her career commanding a rating of 96, but did run off handicap marks of around 104. The dam-sire Key of Luck won t the Dubai Carnival as a five year old and netted a career prize money of around 240K.
Thomas Campbell has the same sire, but is out of 150 rated hurdler Hora who’s best performance was when runner up in a Listed hurdle at Cheltenham, her sire was the mighty Hernando, who had landed the Prix du Jockey Club and Prix Lupin in his career, as we all know the career of Yeats and looking at both in the market the one i actually like is a three time the price tag which has given me the incentive to back him each way.
I want to dutch in this race, purely as a like one at another good price in ‘MR FENTON‘ who for me was very eye catching on debut at Chepstow on ground that had come up really heavy. He was held up through out the race by Richie McLernon, and despite being ridden to get into contention, he actually made up a considerable lot of ground over the last two furlongs to be defeated by eight lengths.
The bumper is not throwing up any big winners of late, actually it is turning out to be a weak bumper, but Mr Fenton looks to have something different and was probably extremely green in the race. Stable jockey gets back on board this afternoon and be interesting to see if Coleman holds him up gain or goes gung ho from the front.
Reading some of the comments revolving around Bags Groove second to Alan King’s Criq Rock was a hot bumper, i actually have reservations that it was not. It is possible that the front two in the betting were far superior to the field as they finished under two lengths apart, but had pulled fourteen lengths away form their contenders.
He has been put in at 7/4 to land this race for Harry Fry, as as the trainer does not send that many to Huntingdon bumpers, just three in the past five seasons which has resulted in a 33% strike rate. At the price there is much more value in the race to take him on even though the front two from his bumper at Ascot are probably slightly better than their form suggests.
MR FENTON : 1pt each way @ 12/1 (BOG)
SILVERHOW : 1pt each way @ 10/1 (BOG)Darren P Goodbody
it is not always a plan that I get the chance to sit down in front of the television on a Saturday afternoon to watch and observe the racing schedule. With work commitments or being dragged out shopping with the misses I just tend to miss a few good races, well thankful for night shits eh.
Doncaster hold an exceptional card, with the highlight being the OLBG Mares Hurdle & the Albert Bartlett Hurdle, with for good measure a tough three mile chase to have out mouths watering. We also have an exceptional card at Cheltenham, which should hopefully give us some pointers for the forth coming festival.
So lets get started, a feast of action to take on board and I will start at the Prestbury Park meeting and the first is a thriller to get the ball rolling. We start off with the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle which has attracted just the six entries, last years winner Peace and Co went on to land the Triumph Hurdle at the March festival, it is interesting to see who has improved from the six possible candidates here. Looking from top to bottom, we start with ‘Who Dare Wins‘ who has won both of his starts to date and will take favouritism to land this race for the fifth time for trainer Alan King.
His winning flat rating of 77, he has adapted to hurdles with authority, especially his last run which saw him beat John Ferguson’s Robertstown by twenty lengths in the Grade 2 Bet365 Summer Juvenile Hurdle , we are still waiting to see the lattered mentioned re-appearance this season. The third Sir Chauvalin franked the form on New Years Day when hacking up at Musselburgh by twelve lengths.
He is sired by Betfred Mile winner Jeremy, who produced the likes of the late Our Conor, the dam Savagnano was a win-less mare who is by Prix du Moulin winning sire Polish Precedent. The fact he relishes some cut under foot and with a good win last time has to put him in the mix here. Stuart Edmonds had a nice winner recently with Saveforvegas and saddles here ‘Wolf of Windlesham‘.
He has also been impressive wining both starts around this sphere which included last time landing the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle when beating two good yard sticks in Oceane of Alan Kings and Romain de Senam of Paul Nicholl’s. He had a fair rating of just 60 on the flat which saw his record go 1-12, he looks to have a bit to find with a few of these. Ditcheat have been really struggling to land the winners in recent weeks, which has seen a return of 1-17 for the Nicholl’s team. Nicholl’s will want to come off the cold list this afternoon when he saddles his French import ‘Clan Des Obeaux‘.
He is another that is coming in to this 1-1 over hurdles, with a bumper win in France to his name and winning on debut for the yard by twenty one lengths at Newbury that form I do find very suspect with a line through stable mate Romain de Seman who was beaten narrowly by a head to the runner up Jaleo. With only NHF form on the level, he should be better than the likes of the top two at the weights, but with the yard having difficulties at present at 6/4 his too short for me.
The most experienced of the bunch is Harry Wittingham’s ‘Duke of Medina‘, with only a rating of 64 on the flat, winning only once of a mark of 54 you can see he should be struggling against these improving types, but he has adapted to hurdling in good fashion which has seen him win one of his three career starts and placed on the others. His win at Market Rasen two runs back saw him demolish his field by twenty one lengths, and that day he beat Richard Fahey’s Quill Art who won the finale at Doncaster yesterday.
His run just before the New Year at Kempton saw him go close behind Alan King’s Gibralfaro who has gone on to frank the form by winning at Ascot, but he only beat a Nicholl’s out of form yard which is not bringing the flashing lights to back him here again. Seven Barrows have two very interesting French recruits in this, ‘Consul de Thaix‘ and ‘Protek Des Flos‘ The former is making his British debut and the only line of form we have is his second in France when beaten over two and a quarter miles on heavy ground. He is by Group 2 Prix Jean de Chaudenay winning sire Loxias who won the race on a technicality.
The dam Mange De Thaix only managed just the one career run when finishing third in a chase, so maybe this is where Consul de Thaix will be better suited once going over the larger obstacles. The latter had two runs in France and was beaten in France over hurdles in heavy ground. His sire Proctektor was a multiple Group winner over 13f and 14f, both are worth a market check if any money comes for their confidence on their British debuts.
With the stronghold Alan King has on this race over the years (4-9) ‘WHO DARES WINS‘ looks the safe option against some potentially future improver’s, he is around 13/8 in the market which in fairness and superb value and I am willing to put him up strongly here.
WHO DARES WINS : 3pt Win @ 13/8 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
The Neptune takes place at Cheltenham and on the evidence that Ben Pauling’s Barters Hill has defected to Doncaster for the Albert Bartlett trial shows strongly their intentions come March. This still leaves a very good field of Novices, I am finding it hard to get Alan King’s ‘Yanworth’ beaten here. Alan King has won two of the past four renewals of this race which saw last year Ordo Ab Chao win at a nice price of 16/1 when turning over Harry Skelton’s Value at Risk.
Favourites have had a torrid time finishing second on five occasions. which have included the past four renewals, ‘Yanworth‘ comes in to this at 7/4, now if there was more market confidence he would if been around the 11/10 mark to land this trial. I think he is too short though for a race that is much more open than it shows. You cannot take away the fact that Alan King’s six year old has done nothing wrong since his fourth in the Champion Bumper last March. With three solid wins which has included taking the scalp of Le Prezien, he has never been this big on all three starts.
Looking around for value in this races is not that easy, but any line of form through Barters Hill always gets me interested, and Nicky Henderson has an interesting one here in ‘BADEN‘. His course and distance second to North Hill Harvey was collectable enough to place in my tracker despite him wondering around under pressure in the closing stages. The form line was the winner who had already finished behind Barters Hill on debut, the third Drumlee Sunset has been beaten by ‘Champers on Ice‘ who is another that has caught my eye at a massive price.
The price guide for David Pipe’s entry here is very generous at 9/1, with two dig deep attitude wins behind him, he makes a perfect profile for battling qualities here at Cheltenham. Already a winner over course and distance around Prestbury Park, you have to take Cheltenham form solid, this is not the easiest course to win on, with its undulating second last and dip to the last, coming up and all up hill on the run in, Champers On Ice seems to have a positive attitude to be in the mix once more, but does have fifteen lengths to find with Shantou Villiage which will not be easy.
If we speak about Champers On Ice then we have to mention ‘SHANTOU VILLAGE‘, the latter beat my dutch selection when they met in the Grade 2 Hyde Novices Hurdle here back in November, with a massive fifteen length decapitation of Champers On Ice when giving 4lb at the weights and now meeting off level weights it is hard to see that from reversed. He has to be my main bet in this race, he is 12/1 twice for two races at the festival in March (Albert Bartlett and Neptune), if he wins this impressively you can see him avoiding Barters Hill.
SHANTOU VILLAGE : 4pt Win @ 2/1 (BOG)
BADEN : 1pt each way @ 14/1 (BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
13.40 CHEPSTOW
POUGNE BOBBI – Wins @ 8/1
Not much has been catching my eye of late until last weekend when a sire I am not to familiar with produced a nice juvenile in Protek Des Flos who defied his outside odds to win cosily in a competitive juvenile hurdle at the Cheltenham meeting. The sire in question is Protecktor who has been producing good heavy ground progeny’s and has some interesting entries over the next few days and weeks ahead.
The sire also had a winner with Chalonnial in yesterday’s Wincanton’s bumper hacking up by a comfortable five lengths, the entry here is hurdling debutante ‘POUGNE BOBBI‘ who has had the benefit of a run around the bumper sphere when finishing third at Warwick on what was probably quicker ground than he would of liked being By a heavy ground sire. The grand-sire was Xaar so plenty of speed around the pedigree, the dam Amicus spent most of her career competing around smaller handicap levels on the flat, with distances from 12f-14f she brings in the stamina side.
He is a sire i think that is worth watching, and the fact he is another that has landed on the doorstep of Seven Barrows he should not be taken lightly now getting his ground and should make a pleasing debut over sticks, i actually thought the 7/2 on offer was very generous.
POUGNE BOBBI : 2pt Win @ 7/2 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
14.10 CHEPSTOW
LOCKSTOCKANDBARROW
A couple in this have changed stables in recent months, with Baltimore Rock switching from David Pipe’s to Neil Mulholland’s and Lockstockandbarrel has switched from a bigger fish in Willie Mullin’s to Jonjo O’Neill’s and it is the latter ‘LOCKSTOCKANDBARREL‘ whom I feel can land this race well. With only the three career runs which two of those came around the bumper circuit, he did hold his own there when second to Vigil who went on to finish fifth in the Champion bumper behind Moon Racer, and not a bad run behind Emerging Market who has gone on to land a good maiden hurdle at Exeter on New Years Day after finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Persia War Novices Hurdle.
His last run for Willie Mullin’s before the switch saw him literally beat his rivals into submission by nine lengths on soft ground, he beat now a double hurdle winner in Captain Hox who now has a rating of 128, the third Winter Breeze finished off last season with a brace of wins and looks a prospect chaser for Michael Winters in Ireland. He has a lot of potential and is very unexposed coming in to this, if he still has that ability he left behind with Mullin’s then he is going to be very hard to beat this afternoon on this ground.
LOCKSTOCKANDBARREL : 2pt Win @ 5/2 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
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