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14.45 CHEPSTOW
WILD WEST WIND Wins @ 9/4
if we look at the form line through a couple of rivals here which includes the selection. On News Years Day at Catterick Neil King’s You Say What was seen struggling back in fifth when a distance behind the winner Delusionofgrandeur over two furlongs further than today. He was off the bridle a long way from home and I am not convinced even stepping back to this trip in this ground he will over turn that form. Now the selection gets the services of Paddy Brennan who is definitely riding at the top of his game this season. He rides here for Tom George on ‘WILD WEST WIND‘ who finished third to the above mentioned Delusionofgrandeur by eighteen lengths, but he had every chance of actually winning the race when he came to challenge three from the finish, over two furlongs further than today.
It’s his Chepstow run that is more of interest, he actually looked all over the winner that day when making a mild but costly error at the last when dipping on landing under amateur Ciaran Gethings and un-shipping his pilot. That was heavy ground that day and today’s trip, he is 4lb better off in the weights for that run and under a confident jockey who gets back on board for the first time since finishing runner up on the bumper circuit at Bangor back in November.
WILD WEST WIND : 2pt Win @ 7/2 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
14.25 CATTERICK
HELLORBOSTON
It is sad to see an article in the racing post last week about how Donald McCain will weigh up his yards poor run of form to stay in the game, it would be a sad loss to racing from my point of view, but he does have a couple of reasonably good chances on the Catterick card this afternoon with the first one I like is ‘HELLORBOSTON‘ who has had excuses over the past year when not really getting his ground, but trainers and owners have to meet fees and bills and it just seems that they have needed to get a blow into him despite looking to have no chance of winning off his higher marks.
Today he falls into an easier handicap chase, with competing around the novice handicaps he gets into this actually off a winning mark of 107. The weight is not going to help having to carry 11st 12lb around such an undulated course as Catterick, and he does have jumping issues to iron out. He drops into a 0-110 handicap off 107 today, which is most definitely and easier task to date, His last run in a handicap chase was an 0-125 at Bangor when finishing third to far superior horse which came over three miles. I think he is a better horse going over further and with the ground coming up a bit quicker than what he has been competing on and he can defy the weight and run up to his Bangor run he should be on the premises under Will Kennedy who will ride him for the first time this afternoon.
HELLORBOSTON : 1pt each way @ 15/2 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
16.00 CATTERICK
CLOUDY JOKER
The second season chaser has probably been a dream to train for Donald McCain over the past three seasons. He had a chasing career a head of him back in 2013 when winning three of his four starts around the handicap ranks, for some reason they diverted him back to hurdles where he failed to shine on all five occasions. Since bringing him back onto fences he has started to shine once more winning his last two runs here at Catterick. He is unbeaten around here and has won two of those runs under today’s pilot Henry Brooke, who is actually 4-4 on the horse.
He would not want the ground to quick this afternoon and any rain over night would definitely give his hat trick a stronger outcome. He is not far off the marks he was winning off back in 2013 and off 125 which he finished sixth at Sedgfield off back in November is a slight concern as there does not look much more to come, if he wins today he goes up another 7lb which is going to be hard to win off for the eight year old, but I am hoping a stable that can return to form, a confident booking of Henry Brook, loves the course and at 4/1 if you can get 1/4 odds he looks value each way.
CLOUDY JOKER : 2pt each way @ 4/1 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
Well it did not turn out all that bad with a 8/1 Henderson drifter and an advised 11/4 winners, I was not going to bother this afternoon, but I actually think the Musselburgh card is quiet good and I think it is worth actually putting one up in every race on the card, so with that in mind here we go…..
13.00 Musselburgh
SIMON SQUIRREL
After watching big runs on Saturday from Connetable, Ulck Du Lin and As De Mee I would like to think Paul Nicholl’s has turned a corner after the yard have been in the doldrums over the past couple of months.’SIMON SQUIRREL‘ has ran very creditable twice behind Altior this season and I actually think Simon Squirrel is better off going left handed. He is dropping back into Class 2 company which saw him finish last time out twenty one lengths behind Altior, the runner up has ran well recently in graded company and off 138 there is room to work with for an each way bet.
The way Seven Barrows at present is dishing out winners it would be hard to oppose Nicky Henderson’s ‘Brain Power‘ in this. With twenty six lengths to Barters Hill on his resume and a win last time out at Kempton back in November he looks on paper the one to beat and considering the third Theo’s Charm has franked the form twice, the yard are 7-23 over the past 14 days, I am hoping the selection gives him something to think about around this category.
SIMON SQUIRREL : 1pt Each Way @ 6/1 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
13.30 Musselburgh
THE GREY TAYLOR
Nicky Henderson throws another interesting one here into the mix in ‘Full Shift‘ who is coming off the back of a win at Kempton on only his second start over the fences. Even though his has one going left handed when winning his maiden at Gosforth Park two season ago, his other two wins have come twice around Kempton right handed. Lets not take anything away from the seven year old who has mixed it up with the likes of Don Poli and Killultagh Vic in his hurdling days and we know how they have gone on to such bigger success. I do feel he is vulnerable around here and his rise of 8lb for just a three quarter length win could be a bit harsh.
Brian Harding keeps the ride on Keith Dagleish’s ‘Got The Nac‘ who was last seen when hacking up by six lengths at Gosforth Park just before Christmas. They form is solid enough with the runner up Special Catch winning on his return to Newcastle so coming into this still on 123 he has much more to play with at the weights. We are always looking for a David Pipe handicap plot and ‘My Brother Sylvest‘ diverts back to fences after a disappointing run over hurdles last month. He does not win that often with his chase record showing 2-23, but he has been dropped to 126 for today’s open encounter and in theory should be exploiting the opposition with that mark. Pipe’s chasers over the past two weeks have shown just the one winner from eight, the yard are slowly in their stride, but I am sure if given a patient ride by Tom Scudamore he should be on the premises, but for me the yard not firing.
So this brings me on to the selection, Danny Cook has been is blistering form recently and riding with confidence he gets his first ride on ‘THE GREY TAYLOR‘. His third to Baltimore Rock at Doncaster just before the new year was for me the best form coming into this race. The winner ran a good second yesterday behind Oscar Sunset who was a runaway winner on the day, the runner up that day was Katachenko who has been consistent all season, beating Mon Successor and finishing behind Wings Attract.
He would of probably been a lot closer at Doncaster when the meat in the sandwich finding no room in the closing stages to go behind by just over a length. 11st 12lb is going to be a tall order to carry around Musselburgh, but with the ground coming up a little quicker it should favour him more this afternoon and I think he will win this well under Danny Cook this afternoon for Brian Ellison.
THE GREY TAYLOR : 2pt Win @ 3/1 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
15.00 Musselburgh
VENDOR
I am once more in the corner with Danny Cook’s mount here on ‘VENDOR‘, he partners Sue’s Smiths eight year old for the third time and has seemed to gelled with the horse after a win at Wetherby and not a bad run when third on his return to Wetherby when behind One For Harry last month. His dropping back to two miles this afternoon after his encouraging run over just shy of two and a half, with Musselburgh a galloping track he could most definitely gets his own way out in front under Danny Cook. His run last time I am going to put it down to ground, it was a bog and he just got tired in the final stages of the race, a little cut in the ground he will not mind and his current mark of 138 his a good each way bet.
James Ewart’s ‘Aristo Du Plessis‘ has gone from strength to strength since contending around the handicap ranks. He has gone up 25lb in under 12 months and has a liking for Musselburgh which has seen him land his last two wins over course and distance. His last outing saw him beat ‘Pearl Castle‘ by two and a quarter lengths and with Zaidiyn a further length and a quarter back in third he had to give weight away to both rivals that day, he probably holds Pearl Castle but I am not sure if he will with ‘Zaidiyn‘ who was staying on menacing last time and if not a blunder at the last he could of been a lot closer in my opinion.
It is always dangerous taking on horses for courses that tend to bounce along around Mussleburgh and Diarmuid’s five pound claim is going to make things a lot easier for Aristo De Plessis this afternoon, but I have read the form and now I have to lie in my mistakes as I do think Vendor can be on the premises at a tasty each way price.
VENDOR : 2pts each way @ 9/1 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
15.30 Musselburgh
DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR
I am hoping I am not barking up the wrong tree here, if we go back to Friday and Wild West Wind who won nicely under Paddy Brennan, the first two home finished behind Delusionofgrandeur to very wide margins, if I recall twelve lengths and forty three lengths, both have progressed massively after their runs this week and I was surprised he was in this at 8/1. Once more it could be a serious red letter day if Danny brought all three of my selections home this afternoon on the card, but it is not impossible, on paper though he is up against Musselburgh winner last time out ‘Fagan‘ of Gordon Elliott’s who literally hosed up in a canter under Dicky Johnson that day on soft ground. At 1/7 he was there to win and his win got a boost last week when the third Captain Redbeard hosed up beating Good Vibration of Sue Smith and Danny Cook to eight lengths. I only have one concern with Fagan, he makes a serious habit of jumping awkwardly to the left which if he was coming to the last off the bride it was worry me he can be beaten.
This is a race that has been the devils advocate for favourites lover the past three running’s of this race, ‘O’O’Seven‘will represent the inform Nicky Henderson who was last seen when running two and a quarter lengths behind the ever so smart Yorkhill in the Tolworth Hurdle, so he brings Grade 1 experience to the table, this is a big drop in class and steps back in un-graded Novice company which is something i would not of done, these races throw up to most weird results, hence why the average price has been 12/1. I still feel Delusionofgrandeur is on the upgrade and deserves to take his chance against this company.
DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR : 1pt Win @ 9/1 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
16.50 Naas
CAPE CITY BOY
John Hanlon’s ‘Cape City Boy‘ drops back on the level after a couple of maiden runs over hurdles, already a winner around this sphere this time last year at Down Royal when hosing up by eight lengths. The form of the bumper is not setting the world alight, but the Cape Cross off spring has been running swell enough to get seriously involved here under the guidance of Steven Clements who is worth his 3lb claim this afternoon.
Surprising that Willie Mullin’s ‘Miss Me Now‘ is not favourite for the race, the reason I want to oppose him this afternoon is that his bumper win when beating Ma Garrett is not the greatest form coming into this, and the fact he was beaten ten lengths at Wexford has already proven my point. Katie Walsh over the past two weeks around the bumper scene is 1-4 when she booted home Any Drama of Paul Fahy’s at Thurles back on the 27th January, since then she has failed to make the frame and she rides here for Noel Meade on ‘A Genie In A Bottle‘ who finished third on his debut at Leopardstown when behind Winsome Bucks of Tom Hogan’s. I am pretty sure that was not a strong enough bumper to suggest he can step up on that form.
Gordon Elliot will have the tissue favourite with ‘Blood Crazed Tiger‘ who ran well here over course and distance last November when runner up to Loughaderra Prince of Alan Flemings. Owned by Gigginstown stud he was beaten by Barry Connel that day and it looks like for me on paper he will be seeing double here when taking on Cape City Boy who is owned by Connell.
CAPE CITY BOY : 2pts Win @ 3/1 BOG)
Darren P Goodbody
14.20 FAKENHAM
DEXCITE
Peter Bowen’s ‘Hollies Pearl‘ probably sets the standard here, she had an exciting NHF career when finishing twice behind the likes of Lifeboat Mona and went on eventually to land a listed bumper at the Aintree festival. Her debut over hurdles was not that convincing even though she won on the day at Chepstow, she wandered terribly by going left in the closing stages, but with her flat turn of foot she prevailed by two lengths. She was stepped up to 2m 5f next time out at Warwick when beaten by two lengths to Rene’s Girl of Harry Skelton’s, again she jump awfully to the left and her jumping was very erratic throughout the race. They have had two and a half months to sort out her issue and she should be able to settle around this flatter course.
I do think though she has it all to do to attempt to beat Tom George’s charge here in ‘DEXCITE‘ who’s fourth last time to North Hill Harvey at Cheltenham is far better form. That Cheltenham race was tough going up against some nice much improving novices, especially the winner who had finished behind Barters Hill on his debut. The runner up and third have competed at better levels since, with the winner commanding a mark of 140, the runner up 137 and the third 132 Dexcite should be really exploiting his current mark of 127 this afternoon, and who better to be on board than that of Paddy Brennan who gave the blog a nice winner a couple of days ago.
DEXCITE : 2pts Win @ 11/8 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
Was nearly betting Simon Squirrel today as well PTW, thought he’d have fared better myself. Good chance I’ll have my eye on him at one of the big spring festivals.
16.00 MUSSELBURGH
ATOMIX
There is some nice looking types in this bumper this evening, Gordon Elliott is very successful when sending his horses over to the Scottish tracks and is well represented here with ‘Moonman‘ who is making his debut under rules this afternoon after winning around the p2p sphere. He is by Prix Ganay and Premio Parioli winning sire Pelder, but the sire has not been renown of producing great NHF horses over the years and on debut I think best watched.
With many making their debuts under rules I am going to stick with Peter Niven’s ‘ATOMIX‘ in this. He is nicely bred by King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes winning sire Doyen who has a good record with jumpers, especially the likes of Valdez, Kumbeshwar and Keys to name a few, the trainer has a solid 40% strike rate when sending his bumpers to Musselburgh and even though it’s a big field and you never know what will surprise you around this sphere, he looks a solid bet for me taking on unknown knowledge. His first career start cam at Catterick when runner up to a very nice John Ferguson gelding in High Bridge, the third that day was Shambougg of Philip Hobbs, who won 10 days ago at Warwick when beating Shrewd Tactic’s and a selection on this blog in Reilly’s Minor so I am very confident he be leaving that form behind and winning this.
ATOMIX : 3pt Win @ 5/2 BOG (NAP)
Darren P Goodbody
Was nearly betting Simon Squirrel today as well PTW, thought he’d have fared better myself. Good chance I’ll have my eye on him at one of the big spring festivals.
Have to agree, after seeing some big runs from the Nicholl’s horses on Friday and Saturday, he looked well enough to run a big race, but maybe Ditcheat still not firing, interesting don’t you think ever since the retirement of Denman and Kauto Star the yard are struggling to find new stars.
Darren P Goodbody
Hard to replace such superstars, but at least showing signs of revival.
I know it’s got a lot to do with who’s buying the horses/talent spotting for him. I hear a lot of negative stuff about his main buyer now, but as I’m a bit in the dark about it all (i.e clueless and don’t know the people involved, or to be honest how it all works) I tend not to comment on it normally. He’s had problems in his personal life as well.
I hope he continues on the comeback trail anyway.
With selections on hold for now until Cheltenham, I will run a side profit/loss on ratings, I have been trying to squeeze a few out over the past few weeks, we all try them to see if they work. so not all the time but when I can I will gladly put up the best rated in bold from all the races on the day. this is being mainly revolving around place pots.
CARLISLE
13.50
Berkshire Downs 116 (2nd 11/8F)
Red Story 111 (4th)14.20
Vinny Gambini 116 (3rd @ 4/1)
Longueville Flier 11214.55
Tara The Tiger 120 (1st @ 6/1)
Knocklayde Sno Cat 102
Miss Tiggy 10215.30
Morning Royalty (1st @ 7/4)
Moscow Me 11616.05
Subtle Grey 129 (1st @ 4/5)
Klibee Chief 11616.35
Return Flight 120
Age of Glory 117The 16.05 there are only three runners so I will be careful and put in all three, or do two like I will putting the top rated in only.
144 Bets @ 10p – £14.40
Darren P Goodbody
SOUTHWELL
13.10
Viva Verglas 76 (3rd 8/1 into 9/2)
Razin Hell 7113.40
Kirkman 65
Pass the Time 64 (1st @ 11/8)14.10
Pirates Treasure 79 (1st @ 5/4)
Daisy Bere 7514.45
Be Royal 74
Royal Holiday 72
Khajaaly 7215.20
Ronaldjamessach 84 (NR’)
Mystic Blaze 83 (2nd @ 10/11)15.55
Emblaze 68 (1st @ 8/1)
Bionic Indian 59 (2nd @ 9/4)16.25
General Tufto 68
Eium Mac 57 (1st 3/1)96 Bets @ 10p – £9.60
OUT OF PLACEPOT – You either love him or hate him Luke Morris
Darren P Goodbody
Kempton
16.55
Imjin River 55 (2nd 4/1)
Single Summit 5117.25
Seven Summits 56
Top Pocket 55 (2nd 16/1)17.55
Rosealee 77 (2nd 3/1)
Katie Canford 7518.25
Logarithm 67
Highest Quality 66 (1st 8/1)18.55
Ingen Brave 74
Packing Empire 69 (NR – FAV 1st 5/4)19.25
Franco’s Secret 81 (2nd @ 6/1)
Exceeding Power 8119.55
Trodero 84
Stone Quercus 8164 Bets @ 20p – £12.80
Darren P Goodbody
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