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Processing the 5 day decs is pretty much automatic, to do the current report with the decs before then requires a chunk of manual input which I wouldn’t particularly fancy.
To do such a report you mentioned would require something I’ve toyed with, basically a trial race rating, but you’d have to consider strike where a runner ran,placed or won in the trail, then went on to place or win the target race, then weight it according to volume, then combine if a horse was in a number of relevant trial races.
When the 5 day decs come out I show an extra column “Target race runners ran in trial and finishing position” and I then filter to only show the rows where that column is not blank.
How would you want it sorted to give a book?
King George VI trial/pointer/pathway race stats i.e. the aggregated view from 2000 of where runners have ran in the ‘trial’ race and then gone on to run in the following renewal of the King George VI
On my card I have Gregory clear fav on ratings for the 1500 Great Voltigeur
However there is a very interesting negative for it in my trial race stats , see below
My trial race stats for the 1500 Lillie Langtry Stakes , but my backthathorse.com master rating has fav Free Wind as clear top. Then River of Stars , then Timelock as per the current betting.
I like Nashwa for the Nassau if not for the going, Blue Rose Cen is better suited to the going and the extra weight for Nashwa is at the point I take notice especially with the going, but the trainer and jockey do fk all at Goodwood and would be proper French raiders.
I don’t mind going short priced and I’ve backed both
Below is my trial race stats for the Nassau
What next for Paddington?
Here are the stats from 2000 for races targeted by runners from the Sandown Ecplise in the 12 months after the race.
The York Juddmonte is the obvious choice but not the only one by any means.
That was good contest and although Paddington won it certainly had to fight for it against Emily Upjohn.
Glad I played safe and took the small profit backing both
Going on the basis of what is known rather than what might be (i.e. stamina) , I slightly prefer Emily Upjohn over Paddington, however I don’t like going against odds on shots and Paddington is now 1.88 on the exchange.
I played safe and backed both yesterday to a get a 12% return regardless
I’m looking forward to the race, EMily Upjohn has won at Sandown at the distance in April last year but in a low class race, it won at York at the dist in a G3 , but it’s G1 wins have been more 12f.
Paddington hasn’t won at more than 1m and O’Brien, despite his performance elsewhere, doesn’t have good record at Sandown, about 14 runs to 1 win in the last 5 years.
But is Paddington all that and a bag of chips in terms of potential improvement ??I’ve gone with what is and against the potential star prev, sometimes I’ve won and sometimes I’ve lost.
You could just dutch them for about 12% profit at current exch prices.
Some trainer stats you won’t see elsewhere,for each trainer at Sandown the next two days I’ve calculated the aggregated perc runners beaten sqd (PRB2)for their horses over diff time periods. Plus I’ve included my course specific trainer ratings.
Personally I think I’m leaning towards EmilyUpjohn over Paddington. The latter is carrying 7lb less but hasn’t ran more than 1m.
But then there’s the question whether Luxembourg will beat both of them. The current price says no.
Hhmmm a bit to ponder yet.
