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I know the flat minimum tariff has not yet commenced but Mr Dixon and Partner had a well backed winner at Kempton on Weds night in a Class 6 claimer – horse called Thunderball.
Did this race meet the minimum tariff level? I don’t think so but apologies if wrong!
By the way I support the charter. Something needs to be done to help owners below the top tier.
Thanks Guys,
Ellison, O’Meara and Pears all catch my eye. M Johnston good but too pricey!
Any thoughts on Alistair Whillans?
Tuffers,
Can’t disagree with Fahey. Any others though – smaller strings and/or bit less expensive (I’m assuming Fahey adds a small premium given his track record).
Any you rate that are "on the up", a bit lower profile than Mr Fahey?
Thxs.
carvillshill,
After 8 hours in an office staring at a screen for most of that time I find the RP/ATR sites hard work. I also seem to flick from one race to another without really concluding my analysis. With the volume of racing nowadays my time is also diluted.
To improve my study I’m going to begin buying the Weekender again to highlight my favoured races / catch up with events. I’ve also procured a large notebook where I’ll scroll down my notes etc. Thereafter I’ll use RP/Horseracebase/Trends books to analyse in greater detail.
I think that approach will work better for me. Thks, you’ve helped bring some clarity!!
G Tipster & C Hill – thanks for your responses.
I think one of the posters hit the nail on the head – when does a fun bet become a serious bet? I guess the professional would state there should be no fun bets. If you’re betting for fun then keep your money in your pocket until you really fancy something. That’s hard for an amateur like me!
As for staking I agree confidence counts for a lot. GT I can understand your point about assessing the actual odds vs your own odds and staking accordingly. I would find it difficult to go big on long odds shots, I put them in the 1 or 2 point band.
I also look at the market to try and find bets in the 3/1 to 12/1 range. Anything shorter and there’s potential for horses to be overbet. Anything longer and maybe the market has got it right. I’ll still back the longer odds shot but maybe as a saver or split my stake between 2/3 horses in one race. I see nothing wrong with that. It’s all about making a profit on the race.
I like nothing better than betting a young improver in the 7/1 to 10/1 range vs the old timer who’s at shorter odds. Imp Commander in the Ryanair and Gold Cup being a classic example. I’m going to try to base my betting and staking on finding more of those IC types bets! In the long run I’m sure they’ll be profitable.
How do you guys decide if a bet is a one point bet or a five point bet (on a scale of one to five)??
We can all back winners but it’s having a feel for when you’re confidence is correct or misplaced that I struggle with.
As I say to my pal it’s not how many winners you back, it’s how many losers you DON’T back that is key. Losing bets >> lack of confidence and chasing your losses.
To the OP i’d say be far more disciplined and set your lowest stake at a value where you’ll feel the pain (slightly) if the bet is a loser…and yes I struggle with that strategy too!
Put a betting bank aside and stick to it.
Cheers for that Carvillshill – could be just what I am looking for.
What your thoughts on the likes of the RP/ATR sites? I find them fine enough for general formbook analysis but that’s about it really – they just don’t have the capacity for analysis and query – they are free in the main though!
I had a chuckle yesterday when they went to the hack tip – Will Hayler i think it was. Tanya was so delighted that a "friend" was on the line and she was let off her leash to have a conversation with him. The rest of the programme she has to sit there and listen and read the market movers – it’s as if she knows it’s a crap job but oh well the money ain’t too shabby.
Tbh apart from some obvious issues I think the programme is ok.
I’d dispute whether they need Matt Dawson but the feature on P Nicholls is very interesting, just a shame it’s so short, they could make a 2 hour programme on a yard like his that would interest me and many others – racing or non racing fans.
It would give a good insight into the work done in yards and how the horses don’t just magically apppear magically at the racecourse.
I still question why they need Tanya to read out the betting moves 3 times in 55 mins, and what is the point of the hack tip?
They should maintain a league table of the virtual betting banks and air it every week.
Agree with that Gingertipster – trends should be a guide not a fixation. Sorry just reread my post again – I should have backed up the bit about trends/stats by stating that formbook study should go hand in hand. Some trends are pure common sense, some are just waiting to be broken! Where I like to focus is on age, weight carried, official rating, trainer patterns, key races etc. Rather than trends you could call it logic.
I gave an example earlier about how I favoured IC for the Gold Cup last year. This was based on his age, his Cheltenham record and the fact he goes well fresh. Allied to that KS and Denman were not getting any younger. IC needed to improve but I thought he had it in him to do so, therefore at 8/1 or so I felt he was value. This year it’s actually the reverse – I was tempted by KS for the GC after the King George when he was 12/1. He’s still good enough to win a GC especially on good ground However now he’s 8/1 I don’t feel he’s value and I’ll let him pass for now.
Hopefully above example gives you an insight into how my mind works – the difficulty I find is applying the same logic week in week out. By writing it down on this thread it actually helps me think more rationally and understand my thought process!
I hope it helps others too.
Gingertipster and others,
What other information sources do you use – whether free or fee based, web or paper? I use to be a regular Racing Post reader but not so often now. I do use their website alongside ATR but don’t really feel either 100% suits my needs. I also have RUK but confess to not watching it that often – especially during the winter. In fact I’m tempted to go for the web based product only and save myself £120 per year.
Has anyone used any of the Raceform Products? They seem pretty expensive. Are their products more for the pro punters with more time on their hands?
My bettting is primarily trends/stats based, studying the weekend racing and the festivals so I’m not sure if investing in any of the Raceform products would be cost effective.
Any recommendations for other info sources out there in the market? I envy those guys with blogs who quote trends and stats re particular races and horses – is it simply a case of hard work on their behalf or are there cost effective products that I don’t know about and you guys rate? I really don’t want to be sweating over my PC after 8/9 hours at work during the day so paper based products may suit me better – but then again electronic products contain far more info!
The reason I ask is because after a cracking Cheltenham in 2010 my betting went downhill the remainder of the year. I used the Paul Jones Weatherby’s guide as a starting point alongside the Raceform guide (£2.99) and found these cracking tools. I’m looking for similar tools year round.
I’m also thinking of changing my approach which can be very much day of race based. I’m looking to see if I can focus more long term, e.g start looking at the Lincoln/Grand National now (and only betting where I see value) rather than betting simply because its the weekend – which is what the bookies love!
Be interested to learn more about you guys modus operandi and the tools you use. I’d be interested to learn about how people organise their betting and study given time contraints etc. I’m sure the OP would benefit too.
Thanks,
100% agree – find a niche, whether that’s a particular class of race, a particular course or trainer/jockey combo. You will already have a "feel" for what comes naturally versus what you find difficult. For now don’t overcomplicate things, focus your time on where you feel comfortable. Analyse why you do well in a particular area and progress from there. Look towards the top trainers and jockeys, focus on those who are doing very well this season/this month. Oppose those that are peforming below par.
Look for reasons why the favourite can’t win – if you come up with a few then look to oppose it, e.g ground, trip, trainer form etc. I would recommend starting with small field graded races, take the Game Spirit Chase tomorrow for example. I can’t have French Opera tomorrow after the way he ran lto – is there one that can beat him that’s maybe 2/3 points bigger? Was it just the soft ground lto that beat him? Can he reverse the form with the others that ran in the same race? Is he making the market for some of the other runners?
Focus on the classier races where the form is more solid and stands up.
Don’t believe the hype. If the game was that easy we’d all be winning!! Be "Against the Crowd".
If you are drawn to big field handicaps (most of us can’t resist) back two horses to win rather than one horse each way. If I have my maths correct £10 win on a 6/4 shot pays the same as £5 e/w on a 20/1 shot. I’d rather split my £10 equally on 2 horses to win in the same race.
Focus on the classier handicaps, again where the market is reasonably accurate. For example in the TGT tomorrow look at the first 6 in the betting – who is your choice out of the front 6?
If none of them have the "ideal" profile for the race consider the next 6 in the betting. Analyse why these horses are not further up the betting – did they run badly lto? Are they from a smaller yard and not from Nicholls/Henderson etc?Look to young improvers over older horses when analysing chases. Imperial Commander vs Kauto Star being the classic example in the GC last year.
Good Luck….
