Forum Replies Created
- Posts
aaronizneez,
It sounds like you are using trends relating to particular types of races and the performance of the favourites in these.
For me, this is not something I am desperately keen on, but I don’t think there is fundamentally anything wrong with this statistically-focussed approach providing you are alert to the likely eventuality that punters will adapt their behaviour if a trend consistently exhibits itself for a prolonged period.
In terms of laying, my tip would be to transfer in only what you need to stake, and to transfer out any money made asap afterwards. If you leave it online, you will probably end up wasting it on less well considered investments! Or at least you will if you’re anything like me!
For the record, I hope you’ve got it wrong about Buy On The Red, at least for place purposes!!!
Regards,
nv
Brighton for me today – only six lines, with four bankers, which is unusual for me, so no doubt miles off the mark. Good luck placepotters!!!
2:30 – (3)Art Sale
This horse has a big speed figure edge on the field, and runs for a stable with strong course record and improving recent form, including a well-backed second here yesterday. Will be a popular placepot selection but everything points to a big run, including early market support.3:00 – (6)Mudhish
Clive Brittain’s horses are in a real purple patch at the moment, and this colt comes here with solid form claims and plenty of potential improvement for the step up in trip. The race looks pretty weak and nothing much else appeals greatly, with Benhavis quite probably flattered by his 3rd last time, Midnite Blews shaping like a non-stayer, the quality of Spiritofthetiger’s sand race open to question, and Barliffey’s yard out of form.3:30 – (6)Tilsworth Charlie
I like this one a lot, and have banked on it with doubts over the major form rivals. Tilsworth Charlie acts on the course, likes fast ground, comes from an in-form yard, and looks set to improve on her recent respectable soft ground effort. John Jenkins has no recent winners at the course, which is the only slight concern I have. Of the main rivals, Perfect Treasure still has it to prove over the trip, Malaath has to prove she has trained on and acts on turf, and Celtic Spa’s best efforts are on very different tracks.4:00 – (6)Boot ‘N Toot, (8)Mostarsil
The Cyzer horses are running into form, so course-winning, fast-ground loving Boot ‘N Toot makes plenty of appeal after a reasonable run over further last month. Similarly, Mostarsil is totally suited by these conditions and should go very close off a very feasible mark. Of the others, I’m not really into Transvestite who doesn’t seem to last home, or Bienheureux from a non-firing Kelleway stable, or Rock Anthem who takes on older horses for the first time and seems short of tactical speed.4:30 – (3)Out For A Stroll, (6)Music Celebre, (7)Royal Tavira Girl
The lower-drawn runners seem to be struggling over this C&D recently, so my trio are all picked from the upper-middle of the draw. Music Celebre should appreciate the going and the stable had a winner not too long ago, whilst Royal Tavira Girl would probably be better on quicker ground than she had last time and looks a fair bet for a place. Out For A Stroll is included because of an interesting jockey ‘upgrade’ and the fact that the conditions today are perfect for this prolific handicapper.5:00 – (5)Buy On The Red
Without being lazy, this gelding is very well treated, won last time out and is bounced out only a few days later. He likes fast ground and has a course win in the bank – he should certainly be bang there at the finish, and nothing else looks half as solid.D’oh! Squeezed out of a place in the first, breezed through the second. D’oh! D’oh! D’oh! That’s why we love the placepot, isn’t it….
I love placepots, as much for the challenge as anything else, particularly as I don’t need to spend megabucks in order to have an interest in assessing a whole card.
Newcastle also caught my eye, so here are my selections and rationale for today. This perm is 96 lines ‘wide’ and personally, I’ve risked a lot less than £50 in total.
2:20 – (2)Merchant Of Dubai, (9)Marie Camargo
It is very hard to completely oppose the likely favourite Merchant Of Dubai who seems certain to be suited by this step up in trip and who has been running with great credit and consistency up to this point. However, he is likely to be a very popular opening placepot selection and there are a number of likely improvers in the field. The Fahey stable are already on the board in nurseries this season, and the well-related Maria Camargo seems to have got in on a very fair mark and should go very close over this trip judging by her latest effort (gets a 14lb turnaround with the favourite for a 10 length beating when not really put into the race).2:50 – (1)Fulford, (8)Thompson Wells, (9)Van Bossed
Basically, Kiwi Bay will carry the lion’s share of the placepot. Whilst he ran well on his debut, the very different conditions here might not suit and pose enough of a question to try and take him on – the rewards if he doesn’t fire will be considerable in placepot terms. Mel Brittain’s horses are hitting form now and Fulford has shown enough potential to make him of interest. Similarly, the Haslam stable is going well, so the once-raced Thompsons Wells is included – he should almost certainly improve for a tender enough debut a few lengths behind Kiwi Bay. Finally, Van Bossed shaped very promisingly a couple of weeks ago and should also come on for that debut, with the faster ground likely to suit. There are others with claims in here, such as Red Delight and Le Toreador, so I’ll be hoping that these might help to keep the favourite out of the frame.3:20 – (1)Princess Kiotto, (2)Karlani
Both Crathorne and Vice Admiral have claims here but are far from bombproof, and are taken on with the in-form, consistent but one-paced Karlani who should be suited by racing prominently just off the decent gallop which Vice Admiral is likely to set, plus Princess Kiotto who likes fast ground and has an excellent Newcastle record.3:50 – (1)Viva Volta, (4)Neon Blue, (5)Barkass, (6)Sake
A dead eight, and my thinking here is to throw several likely darts in the hope of bagging at least a couple of places and covering for any late non-runners. Barkass has a clear form chance after his last run but will possibly be overbet and takes on older horses, so is accompanied in my perm by three of the older brigade who I think all have chances and who are proven on the course.4:20 – (3)Deadline
Seven runners and two places for this 3yo+ maiden. Optical Illusion and Ashmal will carry the most money, but for me, both are opposable – Optical Illusion because the Semple yard is not in good form and he hasn’t been finishing his races over shorter trips, and Ashmal because she appears to be tripless and regressive. Neither appear to be up to their current handicap marks. Of the remainder, King Of Rhythm might well need this (yard has been shut due to ailing horses) and is a query on this ground, and Sir Sandicliffe hasn’t really looked a winner waiting to happen albeit the quagmire last time out was never going to suit. Either might go well, but Deadline should be suited by this trip, has run well at the course, and goes on the ground, and makes more appeal. The Midgley yard has done comparatively well this year. This leg with a single selection is probably the most risky, but I think offers potential with two ‘dodgy’ favourites, imho!4:50 – (1)Potentiale, (3)Topazleo
Only two places now with a non-runner, making this a bit more tricky. Potentiale is the deserved favourite here and will, in all likelihood, finish at least second. However, there is likely to be an awfully high proportion of money running on to him and this is not a penalty kick. Cheshire Prince might be a bit of a Chester specialist and is too obvious an alternative, so Topazleo who is unexposed, open to some improvement, and not likely to be a popular selection is included.Can I throw my name into the hat Cormack? Don’t mind waiting or slotting in at the last minute…
And thanks to Happy Jack for running this comp. Lots of fun even if I sucked big style!!!
I think it is meant to be a fun day which markets the sport in a different way to a wider audience.
We (the more ‘hardcore’ racing fans) tend to pour scorn on things like this which are a bit gimmicky – other examples being Haydock’s football day, and the provision of after-racing entertainment at evening meetings during the summer.
We also like to complain about poor quality racing, and low levels of prizemoney, and the reliance of shop-based bookmakers on FOBT revenue.
We reckon the coverage the sport gets on terrestrial television is weak and we generally find fault in the programmes provided by the two dedicated racing channels. In particular, we don’t like racing programmes to include para-racing items or to focus on the less technical aspects of the sport.
So we are a bit picky and a bit cliquey really.
If we aren’t prepared to allow racing to try different things out or explore a variety of more widely popular marketing angles, the sport is never going to raise its profile or public value.
And without more interest from the populus, we will be moaning about the same old things for years and years to come…
Glenn going to heaven……………..he might get a place!
What are the each-way terms being offered? There’s bound to be a couple of non-runners…
Tony – or anyone else,
Would be interested to know if anyone else has used ZE Turf (Maltese-based rival tote pool focussed mainly on French racing)? If so, what do you think of it, and is this the bookmaker you referred to Wallace?
nv
4:40 – Hansinger £700 win
5:10 – The Cayterers £100 win
5:10 – Fire Up The Band £100 win
5:10 – Woodcote £100 wincheers!
I would be amazed if he didn’t.
The only issue with early retirements straight to stud (unavoidable in this case, but sometimes done by design) is that it is often unclear whether the horse has any particular genetic problems which may cause weakness in his offspring. This might include things like fragile legs or dodgy wind.
In this case, for example, we have no idea whether Teofilo’s will tend to train on, or tend to be beset by problems as they grow which might keep them off the track…
But he was very good last year…
