August 8, 2007 at 12:06 #4818
With reference to my post on the main forum, you can now view ‘quick’ or ‘detailed’ selections for today’s Newcastle Placepot at my blog.
MikeAugust 8, 2007 at 12:59 #110870Jim JTSMember
- Total Posts 841
I like the placepot bet Mikky, 6 losers and you can still get paid out
Here’s my Newcastle effort :-
64 bets @ whatever!
2.20 Merchant Of Dubai (Casino Night)
2.50 Le Toreador (Kiwi Bay)
3.20 Crathorne (Karlani)
3.50 Neon Blue (Barkass)
4.20 Optical Illusion (Ashmal)
4.50 Potentiale (Cheshire Prince)
I’ll probably back this bet to 1 straight line with the first mentioned!August 8, 2007 at 13:49 #110872SwallowCottageMember
- Total Posts 1008
Interesting stuff Mike. I used to do the placepot regularly but found that it became too time consuming and in the long term I was only making a small profit from it so I gave it up. I just decided that my time was better used in concentrating on other bets. I’ll look at your placepot picks each day and see how you get on. I see you’ve gone for Kiwi Bay as a banker in the 2:50 which I have layed not to win but hopefully this horse will come 2nd or 3rd and do us both a favour Good luck.August 8, 2007 at 13:59 #110874
I love placepots, as much for the challenge as anything else, particularly as I donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t need to spend megabucks in order to have an interest in assessing a whole card.
Newcastle also caught my eye, so here are my selections and rationale for today. This perm is 96 lines Ã¢â‚¬ËœwideÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ and personally, IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve risked a lot less than Ã‚Â£50 in total.
2:20 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (2)Merchant Of Dubai, (9)Marie Camargo
It is very hard to completely oppose the likely favourite Merchant Of Dubai who seems certain to be suited by this step up in trip and who has been running with great credit and consistency up to this point. However, he is likely to be a very popular opening placepot selection and there are a number of likely improvers in the field. The Fahey stable are already on the board in nurseries this season, and the well-related Maria Camargo seems to have got in on a very fair mark and should go very close over this trip judging by her latest effort (gets a 14lb turnaround with the favourite for a 10 length beating when not really put into the race).
2:50 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (1)Fulford, (8)Thompson Wells, (9)Van Bossed
Basically, Kiwi Bay will carry the lionÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s share of the placepot. Whilst he ran well on his debut, the very different conditions here might not suit and pose enough of a question to try and take him on Ã¢â‚¬â€œ the rewards if he doesnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t fire will be considerable in placepot terms. Mel BrittainÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s horses are hitting form now and Fulford has shown enough potential to make him of interest. Similarly, the Haslam stable is going well, so the once-raced Thompsons Wells is included Ã¢â‚¬â€œ he should almost certainly improve for a tender enough debut a few lengths behind Kiwi Bay. Finally, Van Bossed shaped very promisingly a couple of weeks ago and should also come on for that debut, with the faster ground likely to suit. There are others with claims in here, such as Red Delight and Le Toreador, so IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll be hoping that these might help to keep the favourite out of the frame.
3:20 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (1)Princess Kiotto, (2)Karlani
Both Crathorne and Vice Admiral have claims here but are far from bombproof, and are taken on with the in-form, consistent but one-paced Karlani who should be suited by racing prominently just off the decent gallop which Vice Admiral is likely to set, plus Princess Kiotto who likes fast ground and has an excellent Newcastle record.
3:50 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (1)Viva Volta, (4)Neon Blue, (5)Barkass, (6)Sake
A dead eight, and my thinking here is to throw several likely darts in the hope of bagging at least a couple of places and covering for any late non-runners. Barkass has a clear form chance after his last run but will possibly be overbet and takes on older horses, so is accompanied in my perm by three of the older brigade who I think all have chances and who are proven on the course.
4:20 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (3)Deadline
Seven runners and two places for this 3yo+ maiden. Optical Illusion and Ashmal will carry the most money, but for me, both are opposable Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Optical Illusion because the Semple yard is not in good form and he hasnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t been finishing his races over shorter trips, and Ashmal because she appears to be tripless and regressive. Neither appear to be up to their current handicap marks. Of the remainder, King Of Rhythm might well need this (yard has been shut due to ailing horses) and is a query on this ground, and Sir Sandicliffe hasnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t really looked a winner waiting to happen albeit the quagmire last time out was never going to suit. Either might go well, but Deadline should be suited by this trip, has run well at the course, and goes on the ground, and makes more appeal. The Midgley yard has done comparatively well this year. This leg with a single selection is probably the most risky, but I think offers potential with two Ã¢â‚¬ËœdodgyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ favourites, imho!
4:50 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (1)Potentiale, (3)Topazleo
Only two places now with a non-runner, making this a bit more tricky. Potentiale is the deserved favourite here and will, in all likelihood, finish at least second. However, there is likely to be an awfully high proportion of money running on to him and this is not a penalty kick. Cheshire Prince might be a bit of a Chester specialist and is too obvious an alternative, so Topazleo who is unexposed, open to some improvement, and not likely to be a popular selection is included.August 8, 2007 at 14:25 #110876
I have Potentiale as the lay of the day so would risk leaving him out of my perms.
My Perm today is
Dream Express / Tamara Moon
Dispol Isle / Violent Velocity
King Of Rhythm / Deadline
Cheshire Prince / The Quantum KidAugust 8, 2007 at 14:55 #110882
D’oh! Squeezed out of a place in the first, breezed through the second. D’oh! D’oh! D’oh! That’s why we love the placepot, isn’t it….August 8, 2007 at 21:58 #110909
Thanks for all your input guys, it’s great to see that I have started some interest.
With regards to the Ã‚Â£50 staking plan I have set, this is just a figure to measure my profit/loss over. I have been known to spend Ã‚Â£50 and even more (especially at Cheltenham) on a placepot, but my usually outlay is between Ã‚Â£10 and Ã‚Â£20, for instance, the placepot I put on my blog today I actually did at 20p lines costing around Ã‚Â£14.
I am still very annoyed at putting Kiwi Bay in on it’s own lol, a really poor shout that was – especially as the rest of the card I got correct. My annoyance was offset by the poor dividend of only Ã‚Â£35 mind, I thought it would have paid more nearer Ã‚Â£100 with the first 2 fav’s finishing unplaced – but like someone has already said – that’s the placepot for you.
So at the moment, I am Ã‚Â£50.40 down in terms of statistics for my blog, but I am sure I can turn it around lol.
Once again, thanks for the input and interest.
(ps: Had 3 in the first race at Yarmouth tonight and couldn’t get one placed just to cap a really bad day lol)August 9, 2007 at 11:26 #110940
Yesterday’s profit/loss: -Ã‚Â£50.40
Total profit/loss: -Ã‚Â£50.40
Oh dear, the above does not read too well and I feel that today could get even worse
However, with the better quality meetings coming up over the weekend then I am confident I can turn that – symbol into a + symbol
Today’s Yarmouth selections are on my blog now – though this Yarmouth card should carry a government health warning – it’s that tricky.
Good luck all,
MikeAugust 9, 2007 at 13:08 #110951SwallowCottageMember
- Total Posts 1008
Good luck Mike and one look at the selling hcap at yarmouth is enough to give me nightmares ….. but I suppose the trickier the card then the bigger the payout if you can get it right.
My place banker for this meeting would have been Gleaming Spirit in the 2:50 and I’m in two minds whether to back him to win or not – I don’t like maiden hcaps but the form of his last 2 runs is good – it’s just that I’m not too keen on taking 5/2 about a horse in a 17 runner hcap.
How do you decide which meeting to bet on with your placepots?August 9, 2007 at 13:32 #110953
How do you decide which meeting to bet on with your placepots?
Lol, that’s very easy – I do a placepot at every meeting every day, always have done. However, I am just going into detail 1 per day on my blog and I guess the one I select for that is probably the one that has the potential to show the most profit, well thats how I select during the week anyway. On a weekend I will opt for the top meeting of the day.
Good luck with Gleaming Spirit.
MikeAugust 9, 2007 at 14:19 #110959dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
I have a placepot system somewhere from years ago, that I will post the selections up for time permitting.August 9, 2007 at 14:24 #110960
Brighton for me today Ã¢â‚¬â€œ only six lines, with four bankers, which is unusual for me, so no doubt miles off the mark. Good luck placepotters!!!
2:30 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (3)Art Sale
This horse has a big speed figure edge on the field, and runs for a stable with strong course record and improving recent form, including a well-backed second here yesterday. Will be a popular placepot selection but everything points to a big run, including early market support.
3:00 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (6)Mudhish
Clive BrittainÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s horses are in a real purple patch at the moment, and this colt comes here with solid form claims and plenty of potential improvement for the step up in trip. The race looks pretty weak and nothing much else appeals greatly, with Benhavis quite probably flattered by his 3rd last time, Midnite Blews shaping like a non-stayer, the quality of SpiritofthetigerÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s sand race open to question, and BarliffeyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s yard out of form.
3:30 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (6)Tilsworth Charlie
I like this one a lot, and have banked on it with doubts over the major form rivals. Tilsworth Charlie acts on the course, likes fast ground, comes from an in-form yard, and looks set to improve on her recent respectable soft ground effort. John Jenkins has no recent winners at the course, which is the only slight concern I have. Of the main rivals, Perfect Treasure still has it to prove over the trip, Malaath has to prove she has trained on and acts on turf, and Celtic SpaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s best efforts are on very different tracks.
4:00 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (6)Boot Ã¢â‚¬ËœN Toot, (8)Mostarsil
The Cyzer horses are running into form, so course-winning, fast-ground loving Boot Ã¢â‚¬ËœN Toot makes plenty of appeal after a reasonable run over further last month. Similarly, Mostarsil is totally suited by these conditions and should go very close off a very feasible mark. Of the others, IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢m not really into Transvestite who doesnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t seem to last home, or Bienheureux from a non-firing Kelleway stable, or Rock Anthem who takes on older horses for the first time and seems short of tactical speed.
4:30 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (3)Out For A Stroll, (6)Music Celebre, (7)Royal Tavira Girl
The lower-drawn runners seem to be struggling over this C&D recently, so my trio are all picked from the upper-middle of the draw. Music Celebre should appreciate the going and the stable had a winner not too long ago, whilst Royal Tavira Girl would probably be better on quicker ground than she had last time and looks a fair bet for a place. Out For A Stroll is included because of an interesting jockey Ã¢â‚¬ËœupgradeÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ and the fact that the conditions today are perfect for this prolific handicapper.
5:00 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ (5)Buy On The Red
Without being lazy, this gelding is very well treated, won last time out and is bounced out only a few days later. He likes fast ground and has a course win in the bank Ã¢â‚¬â€œ he should certainly be bang there at the finish, and nothing else looks half as solid.August 9, 2007 at 14:41 #110961
I have Buy On The Red as a lay in the last placepot race at Brighton. I quite like the look of Who’s Winning.
I’ve been looking at the placepot since the beginning of July and am beginning to find out that whilst using the information I have collected for the placepot I have come acroos other interesting stats to investigate. For example I have never thought of laying before but some of the stats would indicate that I should consider sooner, rather than later.
Potentiale yesterday was a strong positive for laying as is the favourite in the last at Brighton ( Buy On The Red reasonably sure to go off favourite ).
I have some success with the placepot and some very big near misses and I shall certainly persevere with them for a while albeit to very modest stakes.August 9, 2007 at 15:21 #110964
It sounds like you are using trends relating to particular types of races and the performance of the favourites in these.
For me, this is not something I am desperately keen on, but I don’t think there is fundamentally anything wrong with this statistically-focussed approach providing you are alert to the likely eventuality that punters will adapt their behaviour if a trend consistently exhibits itself for a prolonged period.
In terms of laying, my tip would be to transfer in only what you need to stake, and to transfer out any money made asap afterwards. If you leave it online, you will probably end up wasting it on less well considered investments! Or at least you will if you’re anything like me!
For the record, I hope you’ve got it wrong about Buy On The Red, at least for place purposes!!!
nvAugust 9, 2007 at 15:41 #110965
You are absolutely right with regard to the statistical approach. I am using it as a guide at the moment and to be honest its not too bad. The problem is when I have a race to leave the favourite out I’m having problems with my own selections making the frame !
With regards to the laying part I’m not actually backing it up with any hard earned yet. Yesterdays lay Potentiale was in a grade 6 apprentice handicap which since the beginning of July was zero from nine for winning favourites. I will keep a watching brief and maybe dabble after a couple more weeks.
Like yourself I get a tad carried away if I have too much funds on Betfair. I’m attempting to be a little more disciplined but finding it difficult to resist.
I have no problem with Buy On The Red being placed, second to Who’s Winning is fine.
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