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Clearly one of those races that is all about gut feeling and I agree that there’s not much value to be seen just now. HF unquantifiable, binny sets a strong benchmark. Menorah loves Cheltenham, finds for pressure and has a useful turn of foot. Oscar whiskey looks like he may be tapped if the pace isn’t strong. Again if the pace is steady dunguib looks to be more of a traveller. Khyber Kim is slightly unknown but once again may be better off a solid pace. Peddlers really hasn’t shown the form to win this race and looks suited to further based on his beating of starluck in the fifth.
All things considered menorah looks to be up with the best form off a slow or fast pace and offers the least questionmarks. Khyber Kim is the closest thing to value.Don’t tear up your ryanair tickets just yet. I believe these noises were made last year too before he ended up in the Ryan. Wanting to win a gold cup doesn’t make it happen!
Doesn’t this throw open the topic of ageism now though ginger? How would you feel about a £300 hike in your premium in order to balance a lower premium offered to some 18 year old boy racer in a Subaru?
Well thats interesting. Only one horse left as I see it, and he’ll need a pounding in the market. Not impossible he goes off third favourite though, long way to go! Could MIDNIGHT CHASE really step up to this level?
Personally I think stats are useless and invariably suggest that the best horse usually wins, through different retro fitted criteria. ie First 3 in the betting, won a race that season, not too old or too young, not well beaten every time he contests a festival race, not less than 6 chase starts = all equate to look for a good horse with proven form.
Denman ran a cracking race last year but was beaten home by IC seemingly at his peak. Kauto hasnt ran an impressive race since last years KG and I can’t excuse so many sub par efforts. Personally I don’t see how riverside boosts this years king George form by going on to win over 21/2 miles when he has only competed once over 3m. Nacarat is a more useful guide to the form in his effort in the racing post chase. Long run clearly has a leading chance but plenty of question marks remain about his liking for the track and I’m dubious as to how strong the KG form really is when beating a 21/2 miler and a below par downgrading kauto. Imperial commander has it all to do to win back to back gold cups at the age of 10 and I haven’t seen enough of him this year to warrant 4/1.
For the reasons stated I think it’s well worth looking outside the first 4 in the betting for the winner. Midnight chase hadn’t been seen against the caliber of horses he is going to meet on March 18th but has to be considered. Panorama brings form strong enough to represent a leading chance provided there’s cut and Kempes seems to have the ability to step up again on better ground. Shame Weird Al hasn’t been seen since his hennessy flop as he was my pick pre season for the Cheltenham showpiece. Burton port and weapons amnesty would have been a threat and it’s a great shame both miss this years event. Diamond Harry did travel marvellously in the Hennessey but that’s a lot easier to do with 10st on your back and that form isn’t good enough here especially with seriously lacklustre noises coming from his stable. Has also flopped at Cheltenham before.I would consider the main threats this year to come from Kempes and Pandorama but wouldn’t rule out course specialist Weird Al if he shows up.
One last thing, this is just the kind of race that Tidal bay may well spring a surprise in and if he consents to travel I have no doubt as to his ability to close out the race. I’ll be keeping him onside…
Given the interruptions from weather and other extenuating circumstances this winter I’d say the safest bet this Cheltenham festival would be in the biggest priced winner market, 33/1 and above.
Fair enough. Riverside has won 3 times fresh and four times not. He’s also won twice at Newbury from 3 starts and came second the other. If that’s enough to rule him best fresh and RH then so be it but he’s good enough for me.
Nice write up five, I gotta say I am a little dissappointed if not terribly suprised at the entries here and the race really does look to come down to the top two in the market.
What a friend *(he’s not my fkin friend) handles any likely ground and has shown decent form in the lexus and totesport but still just doesnt excite me. Offers the least question marks but giving 4 pounds away to the market leader.
Riverside theatre has looked like he needed the step up to 3 miles in previous runnings and in the king George saw it out well. Very economical at his fences but not always entirely fluent he travels well despite his jumping not because of it. Only seen once over 3 miles the form of which is yet to stand up to scrutiny behind long run, but looks open to improvement especially if respecting his obsticles. Course and ground form.
Of Interest, Noland has to overcome a 2 year absence from the track (excluding kitty litter) and a poor run LTO but but would be good enough to challenge for the win here if able to do so. Nicholls managed to massage Nipper back to winning ways recently but I think this is a tougher race than he can be expected to land. I wouldnt blame a win bet on the horse but unlike my learned colleague, I dont fancy the EW angle.
Not really a betting race at the prices but I get the feeling RIVERSIDE THEATRE will prove himself better than what a friend in time. At this stage the 4lb swing may prove decisive and gets the nod but as five mentioned earlier, its hardly exciting is it.
Time for rupert looks like the real deal to me. Jumps and travels with class, stays beyond 3m and loves Cheltenham. If he takes this race in his stride connections must consider the Gold Cup surely. Connections have shown they aren’t afraid to contend races outside novice company and in a race where cases can be made against many of the principles I find him a tempting prospect.
I have also found plenty to like about Taranis this season and would consider him the main threat to TFR here. No doubt tidal bay will rally late and maybe take a place but my idea of a forecast is TFR-Taranis.You can be pretty sure a good run here will pre-empt a poor run in the gold cup for tidal rogue. I’ve backed him for the gold cup and would far rather see him running in a greyhound race prior to cheltenham. He seems to put the effort in only when it tickles his fancy nowadays and that tends to coincide with the point rational punters write him off.
Funny thing JJM, but they are exactly my betting slips from last year barring a slightly more generous price on BFT. Can’t see him improving on last years position this year though.
Gold Cup – Denman 8/1 RES: Diamond Harry 14/1
Champion Hurdle – Silviniaco Conti 20/1 RES: Menorah 4/1
Champion Chase – Big Zeb 7/2 RES: Sizing Europe 12/1
World Hurdle – Zaynar 16/1 RES – Mourad 14/1
Arkle Chase – Realt Dubh 25/1 RES – Finians Rainbow 10/1
RSA Chase – Reve De Sivola 20/1 RES – Time for Rupert 7/2
Triumph Hurdle – Brampour 14/1 RES – Smad place 10/1
Supreme Novices Hurdle – Cue Card 5/2 RES – Zaidpour 10/1
Ryanair Chase – Noland 25/1 RES – Albertas run 10/1
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle – Our Girl Salley 16/1 RES – l’accordioniste 12/1
Very disappointed with MDH’s run there Gord surely hes better than that. Not sure we will be seeing his best over fences tis season though. I hope Fist wont hold you to your typo though! Cracking thread keep up the selections mate I hope to see you still in profit by March!