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"To those who say without betting there would be no racing, I would say you are wrong."
Without betting and the levy that contributes to prize money, surely most owners would not even bother?
Yes they already know there is limited chance of making a profit from ownership, but there is a chance, and that is the dream that most owners cling on to.
Surely no one goes into owmership thinking they will just have a bad horse who only ever finishes last, earns no prize money and has no prospect of landing a punt for those owners interested in having a bet?
Without betting (and the levy generated from it), racing as we know it would become an amateur sport, much akin to point to pointing.
That £140m is training fees which, presumably, goes to the trainers.
Surely most of that money goes to paying stable staff, horse feed, yard costs etc
Doubt the 140m (based on 800 training fees per month) includes vets bills, entries, raceday expenses including travelling etc?
Very expensive game for an owner, and if I had a horse in training, would be more inclined to go to France or USA
very impressed by his interview with Matt Chapman on ATR last week.
At least he’s got all his priorities right and looks like might be the right type of character to get British racing in order.going back to your original query, Dallimann, Take It To The Max had actually gone down 25lbs for George Moore in 7 starts before being transferred to Richard Fahey beginning of this season.
Never within 7 lengths of the winner in those races, so can understand why the British handicapper dropped the horse. Clearly found his form again last 4 starts.But interesting that Winning Impact was beaten 23 lengths at Galway and 6 lengths at Curragh before winning at Roscommon, and only got dropped 1lb for the defeats.
Suppose you can argue fact that you won at Roscommon that the handicapper was correct and 75 is about right?
What I find annoying with the handicapping system is that 75 is right for your horse and gives you a winning chance…… whereas as you say, 6lbs more to 81 means you can’t win.Personally think handicappers should leave horses on winning marks that give them a chance, not put them on marks which mean they are virtually guaranteed to lose.
As you say, Silver Shuffle looks too consistent for the handicapper to drop him much especially not beaten far in big fields last twice. He’s still got the Curragh win last Oct in mind by the looks of things. Good luck with your horses, hope you get your turn again.
14 runner open sprint handicap at Dundalk on Friday.
The four British trained runners manage to finish 1st, 3rd, 4th and 6th.Not sure that the same discrepancy occurs over jumps, Robnorth. The British handicapper tends to add 10-12lbs to Irish jumpers marks when they go to England doesn’t he?
But if I was the Irish flat handicapper, would definitely be looking to either water down his own scale, or at least uplift the British visitors marks.
interesting to read comments about this filly. How would you compare her to So You Think at this stage?
Dallimann, when Famous Name won a Group 3 at Leopardstown on 8th May beating bascially handicappers, I did some research on British v Irish handicappers racing in Ireland. Basically this showed how British trained horses have an advantage when running off their BHA marks in Ireland. Taken from
http://www.racehandicapper.co.uk
:
Consolation for Dermot Weld when Famous Name 96+ continued his astonishing record outside of Group 1-2 company in the Group 3 Amethyst Stakes. His 6yo’s record now reads 21212111111111 below the highest grades. This race confirmed how badly Irish handicappers are treated compared to their English counterparts. In a well run contest, the 2nd to 5th horses, all carrying 9st 9lbs, officially rated between 96-105 and separated by just a length at the line, returned time figures ranging from 70 to 73.
British trainers like Mark Johnston (7-17 for 41% winning strike rate), Dandy Nicholls (6-24 for 25%) and Kevin Ryan (4-24 for 17%) have a tremendous record in Irish handicaps in the last 5 years and have taken full advantage of this discrepancy between the official assessors either side of the Irish Sea
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When you bear in mind that Irish handicaps rarely have single digit fields (the Johnston runners faced average 15+ runners fields, Ryan 16+ and Nicholls 14+) , the collective strike rate of just those three trainers (17-65 for 26% and 91 unit level stakes profit of 140%) is huge. Whilst they are all masters of the handicap game, there is no doubt as to the main contributory factor for their success across the water and why Irish trainers struggle when competing in Flat handicaps in the UK. I would estimate that Irish runners are generally disadvantaged by at least 8-10lbs.
Since writing that, Johnston has a 3-5 strike rate (+270% ROI) in Irish handicaps
Kevin Ryan 2-4 for +362.5%
Dandy Nicholls 0-1gave Maybe a big speed figure at Ascot in the Chesham last week, but startling win by Peter Chapple Hyam’s My Propeller at Pontefract on Sunday.
If prepared to allow My Propeller 3 lengths for not being all out, then would award her best time figure by a juvenile filly in last 2 years.
Not an expert in knowing whether these types will train on as a 3yo, but if she does, fair chance of staying a mile on pedigree and would be good value at around 25/1. If she wins something like the Lowther or Cheveley Park, will obviously be much shorter than that
Frankel was running into a headwind. To compare his actual time for the first 5f in the Guineas directly with the basic RP standard and say it was 2 or 3 secs slower is a flawed argument.
Saddlers Bend at Leicester on 23rd May was well clear on this seasons speed figures, and together with the race being run at a crawl, the result from a "ratings" perspective was hardly a surprise.
People may have assumed that as a Guineas "winner" Jacqueline Quest just had to turn up to collect. But she was the slowest Guineas winner in living memory, and on time figures didn’t have anywhere near as much in hand as the official ratings suggested. If she was not fully tuned up, was liable to be turned over.
Fwiw, have awarded time figures of 110+ to Pour Moi and 108+ to Reliable Man in the Prix Du Jockey Club.
Agree with the poster who suggested we did not see the best of Recital on Saturday, though whether we will actually ever see that is another question. Think he may have an ailment which causes him to hang badly when put under pressure.Also agree with the post about Frankel having a lot more stamina than the general population believes. To not fall in a heap after running sprint fractions at Newmarket suggests that is almost certainly the case, and amazed that the pundits have not picked up on this.
The general view that Frankel is not amenable to restraint is also wrong imo. It was Tom Queally who allowed him to go too fast at Newmarket…. because in his own words, "I didn’t think we were going that fast, to be honest". Now that Queally has been allowed to ride him at full stride for the first time in 5 races, he will know a lot more about Frankel and will be able to ride a much more even pace…….. and win by even further.Was a mistake to miss the Derby, imo. He thrashed a horse many thought should have taken his own chance at Epsom, Nathaniel, over 1m in soft ground on 2yo debut. And Nathaniel was given a poor ride when just failing to get up against the Derby runner up, Treasure Beach at Chester.
Absolutely no doubt Frankel would have "stayed" the trip well enough to win comfortably in what turned out to be an ordinary Derby on time figures at least. Whether that would prove his best trip from a ratings perspective is another matter.Zarkava, neither Virginia Waters (Kingmambo) or Speciosa (Danehill Dancer) had a sire who is an influence for stamina.
As for jockey bookings, clear that this season O’Brien is keeping the same jocks on board who have ridden the horse before.
Hence why young Joseph rode Roderic O’Connor (rides him at home and knows the horse well) and Heffernan rides Misty For Me (rode in Moyglare and Irish 1000 Guineas).
So don’t think fact that Fallon is riding Wonder Of Wonders makes that one no. 1, merely that Ryan Moore is not available (rode in Cheshire Oaks) and they had to book someone. Only Heffernan had ridden Wonder Of Wonders before Chester, so you could even argue he had the pick
As for the colour of a jockeys cap, that hasn’t bothered so called Coolmore 2nd and 3rd strings before.
Wonder Of Wonders has achieved very little either form wise or on the clock, surprised she is as short as she is. The filly she beat at Chester by under 3 lengths is a 100/1 no hoper. Does anyone really expect Blaise Chorus to finish any closer than 20 lengths behind the winner tomorrow?
Breeding is all very fine, but it doesn’t necessarily make yo run very fast.
Coolmore’s no 1 is clearly Misty For Me, and if Wonder Of Wonders was better than her, doubt that Misty For Me would be even showing up given stamina doubts.
Not original, but the standout is Blue Bunting, and expect a victory by many lengths, unless Misty For Me does indeed stay the trip. Can’t see anything else getting involved at all with the exception of Havant or Zain Al Boldan, but they look a division below the Godolphin filly.
When a 1000 Guineas winner goes to Epsom and is guaranteed to stay, their name is as good as already etched into the winner’s trophy.
just off the top of my head, can think of Ghanaati (3rd in a Kempton maiden before winning back there as a 2yo) and Lucarno (winner of a Kempton maiden on second start as a 3yo) who both ran on the AW during the normal turf season and went on to win classics.
Does that not indicate that there is a need for AW racing during the turf season as well as showing that it’s not necessarily full of low grade racing or horses?
Maxilon, can you please ask if any part of the course (widthwise) is dolled off when they work in the morning?
Or can those working gallop anywhere across the track ie far side, centre or stands side.Many thanks
using Together as the yardstick, and watching both finishes of the Irish and English Guineas….
…. you would have to think that Misty For Me would beat Together around 3-4 lengths in a 10f race. But Blue Bunting would be away and gone double that distance….
Over 12f, Blue Bunting has an even bigger stamina advantage over the others and can’t see any viable opposition to her at all.
Wonder Of Wonders time figure very poor at Chester, and she doesn’t even register on the scale at all…. unless she also makes Lazurus like improvement as many of O’Brien’s Guineas runners did this weekend …..
as a trends follower (especially at Cheltenham and Epsom) i find it hard to get excited about any O’Brien horses on the saturday of the Epsom meet.
GDC, do you think it would make any difference to O’Brien’s runners if they ran the Derby back on a Wednesday?
think you will find most fillies are badly handicapped and do not have an earthly when asked to race against males.
The handicapper tends to rate fillies against each other and not the overall horse population, a big error, imo.
Jacqueline Quest is a very good example. Best time figure of 93 when 3rd in the Coronation Stakes, and only 88 when "winning" the Guineas.
She was given a mark of 111 after the Guineas to try and "fit" her improvement into the formlines of others in what was supposed to be a classic.
There was no way that the official handicapper was going to treat the race on its merit and give Jacqueline Quest a rating of 88, basically a cl2-3 classified stakes.
Mortitia (best timefigure 80 at 2) and Bahati (best 77) both badly out of form this season as well as being poorly handicapped off silly marks of 98 and 90, whilst the only feasibly well treated filly in the race Nabah on a mark of 90, tailed off in two starts this season.
Easy afterwards, no wonder the only in-form filly who had won her last 3 starts went in
Very probable that Workforce would only have been kept in training if his trainer knew he was going to improve past the WFA allowances he has to concede to 3yos.
Surprised at the people still knocking the horse. Fastest Derby winner ever (in a watering age which ensures we we will never get firm ground again), and won a moderately run Arc with a smart turn of foot to get himself out of trouble which the likes of Sarafina, Planteur and Behkabad could not manage.
Sir Michael Stoute is the master of training the older horse at Group 1 level, and he knows this is possibly the best horse he has ever been allowed to keep in training at 4.
Agree So You Think has been very impressive in 2 starts. But he has not been faced with a Group 2 level opponent, let alone Group 1, and neither of his time figures In Ireland have registered above 88.
Given Workforce makes just normal improvement from 3 to 4, So You Think still has well over 2 stone improvement to find with Workforce who ran to 125+ at Epsom.
