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Horse A wins a slowly run Derby trial and is promptly installed as 2-1 favourite. Horse B wins a slowly run Derby trial and is available at 33-1.
Is horse B (Masked Marvel) so much worse than horse A (Carlton House)?
Maybe. Horse B was the first horse I backed for the Derby after his debut. Got a very modest RPR though, just 83. ‘Quickened’ on his debut though but he ran appallingly in the Autumn Stakes and I hated the trainer comments in the morning. Gosden said he thought he was a Derby horse but wouldn’t be quick enough for the Autumn – erm, wouldn’t be quick enough for one of the lesser 2yo prizes run over a mile at the end of the season but you think he could win the Derby? No, not for me. Maybe a Leger contender to go alongside Nathaniel.
A fair bit has happened lately but nobody has commented.
Recital’s place odds have moved in a bit – suggesting connections are still seriously considering him for the Derby.
Fallon, according to Dunlop, will ride Native Khan – still looking good value at 14/1 e/w.
That leaves a possible spare ride on Recital – maybe Johny Murtagh?
The Stoute team remain bullish. The absence of a decent speed rating for this horse concerns me, but absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Pour Moi is going to take a spin round Epsom.
I now reckon the most likely scenario is all of three of Pour Moi, Recital and Seville turn up on the day. It’s not clear which is the best horse so you might as well go mob-handed.
latest guesswork appears to be pour moi to epsom to partner recital, seville to france perhaps
respect pour moi but just waiting to steam into recital, patient game given the Irish circus
Roderic O’Connor must take his chance in the Derby now.Possibly last chance for Joseph to ride in the Derby.That was a good Derby trial for the winner.By Galileo but with the pace to win a Derby.
Roderic O’Connor must take his chance in the Derby now.Possibly last chance for Joseph to ride in the Derby.That was a good Derby trial for the winner.By Galileo but with the pace to win a Derby.
Why would a shorter trip suit a Galileo?Surely they are bred to get the Derby trip.One week people are saying that Galileos are too slow for the Guineas the next they are too fast for the Derby.A screwed up sire if you believe that.New Approach was beaten a nose in the Guineas and won the Derby.Rodric O’Connor out stayed the Irish Guineas field like Frankel did to the English Guineas. But ROC ran a much more appealing race as a Derby horse.
No particular reason for ROC to be unsuitable for the Derby but he hasn’t raced further than a mile yet and his dosage is slightly shorter than Recital’s and Seville’s.
Clearly the evidence is there for all to see the Ballydoyle horses improve immensely in their 2nd outing of the year, its happened time and again this season, this weekend being no exception
When you consider the amount of improvement found by most of their top horses then it makes the run of Seville in the Dante all the more appealing as a Derby prospect. On the face of it there seems little evidence as to why he should reverse placings with Carlton House but if he even finds half the improvement his stablemates have been finding then surely he must go closeIm on at 8/1 and i feel happier by the day
If you had him at 8/1 to win the Leger you’d have justification for not being able to wait.
I find it amazing that Galileo can get classic winners at every distance. Not too many sires can do that.What is his best distance? I used to think that he needed a distance of ground to shine but this year he has discredited that theory.Four different Guineas winners in the same year is some feat.Will he have a Derby ,Oaks double this year,I wonder?
As much as I like the noble Carlton House for his gritty determination to get down and win, I’m gonna be backing Native Khan to spoil the royal aspiration
I am starting to think Seville might be stronger than I thought considering how well Aidan’s horses come on for their first run
I am by no way as well educated form wise as many on here BUT as a trends follower (especially at Cheltenham and Epsom) i find it hard to get excited about any O’Brien horses on the saturday of the Epsom meet.
He has a very bad strike rate 8% since 2004 and all those winners he has had have been on the friday. Admittedly since he won in 2001 and 2002 he has had a few runners up but 0 from 31 is a terrible trend to overcome.
I am happy with my prices for CH and will back this up with and EW bet on the day.
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