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I believe Hidden Cyclone will be a good horse. I just wonder where he is right now. They said a while back he would make his chase debut in septemeber, and there has been no update.
I don’t think the 6yo stat is irrelevant. Some trainers avoid the RSA because they think a horse might not be ready. For a 6yo to get the race record in the gold cup when he made 2 blunders, ran on ground without preferred cut and had to be given reminders makes it all the more better. I wouldn’t be overly concerned about his jumping as they are not serious errors that stop his momentum in big races. I wonder about that nose band. For me Kauto started to cut out the errors when they got rid of his. I don’t have a problem with people opposing him because of his odds at all. I often go against short pricers. I just don’t think his achievements or potential should be down played because many want to see him get beat for betting purposes. Hopefully come March we will be able to compare kautos GC at 7 against Long runs at 7. I think he’s going to be better this season.
Where do you start. If Kauto or Denman win, they are superstars. If Long run wins, then it’s a weak renewal. We will just forget the fact that Long Run is the first 6y/o to win it since Millhouse, or that it was no weaker a renewal than we’ve had in recent years. If Kauto beats Madison Du Berlais and Barber Shop to a King George, he is a superstar. If Long Run beats Kauto Star to a King George, it was obviously because Kauto is regressing. Then there’s the contradiction, if these people are queing up to pick fault with Long Run, then surely that takes the shine off Katous Betfair win? …yeah i thought not ! The fact is if we look back at any race we can pick faults. He’s still six and he stays for days. If he jumps he probably will win the KG and Gold Cup. There’s no point unecessarily criticing a horse just because some want to oppose it from a odds perspective.
I’ve tried not to have another bet, but i didn’t try hard enough. I obviously like Sprinter Sacre, as well as Peddlers Cross for the Arkle. I’m not much of an each way punter, as i prefer two in the one race. I think some ante post oddschecker merchants will know what i mean when i say that site makes it alot easier for you to part with your dosh. I’ve concluded my singles for the Arkle by having 50 quid on Sprinter Sacre at 10/1. KingFisher Gordon doesn’t fancy either of my selections, so that gave me even more confidence in them !….some people will have you believe that he ‘can’t get up the hill'(you’ll find these people think the only horse who can get up the hill is the one who wins). I thought he put in a brilliant performance in the Supreme, and he was the first horse to put Cue Card in his place when he was walking all over them. After that he was travelling brilliantly and was leading at the last, until he went through the top and landed akwardly. Therefore i think the distance he finished behind Al Ferof slightly flattered the winner. I have a sneaky feeling he will be very good.
Those lines are 20 quid per double, and i added another 50 quid to Peddlers Cross. Ladbrokes are still the standout at 5/1. Some have the audacity to go 7/2. That’s an SP price on a horse who might not even go off favourite(or even travel to the festival), months before the actual race. At this point i will try and fall back. Perhaps it’s time to watch a couple of races to make the picture a bit more clear. There’s a Drinmore next week, and some nice races in December. Some of the odds on offer are quite interesting from a punters perspective. I noticed that one firm go 14/1 on kauto for the Gold Cup, and separate firm go the same price for Time for Rupert. I’ve also been backing Spirit Son for the CH, and by tomorrow my 50 quid single at 12/1 will be complete.
On that note i’ve deployed my tactic of having Sprinter Sacre doubled up with Sizing Europe and Finaians Rainbow for there reported festival targets. The Arkle does look a seriously hot race.
I can’t think of any excuses for 1833. He just wasn’t good enough. Things aren’t going the way i’d like them to. Fortunately i had a fiver on Vermaalen to score first against Fulham, and another fiver single on Kompany to score first against Liverpool. That kind of luck probably won’t happen again. It’s just such a pitty what happened to Gary Speed. It definitely took more than a shine off the wins. In terms of horses, i would like to hear some news on Spirit Son, and will look out for other peoples opinion on not the horses ability, but whether or not he has enough time to get that experience required for a Champion hurdle success. If he’s back for Christmas, and some knowledgable folk think the time line isn’t too tight, then i’ll get on. Of any time i’ve watched Nicky henderson talk about a horse, i’ve never seen him so excited by a horse than he is over Sprinter Sacre. Obviously being with Peddlers Cross i’m a bit concerned. He(NH) likes this horses big time, and could hardly contain himself. Nicky Henderson is always a good man to listen to, and like many trainers he doesn’t like to get too far ahead of himself. His reaction to Sprinter sacre was interesting to say the least. Ok now back to actually backing a horse. I have backed Quel Esprit at 78/1(tenner) for the Gold Cup. In my time watching racing i have noticed the trend of Willie Mullins horses having difficulty in making the transition from hurdles to chasing (Kempes, Mikael D’haguenet and Quel Esprit etc…). Quel Esprit quite clearly has potential still, and he travelled very well in last seasons RSA before falling a few out. Given that he done well on his re-appearance, i think it’s a fair price for a big outsider, as long as he gets his jumping in gear.
After balancing up the pros and cons of backing Peddlers Cross at 5/1 with 50 quid for the Arkle, from my viewpoint the pros slightly edged out the cons. It’s not that good of a price, i think most would agree. Believe it or not, Ladbrokes were actually a stand out at 5’s. You would really think that loads of other firms could at least match that. Anyway peddlers Cross it is, because he looks as if he will excel over the larger obstacles. If he wins at bangor tomorrow, he might even be shorter which is the way things are these days. When he won his maiden chase at Bangor, the only thing i could take from it is his attitude and his willingness to run, and obviously his jumping. My thinking behind taking a short price is that i’m not so sure he will have a race against his potential arkle rivals before the festival(if he gets there), therefore his price is likely to get smaller anyway. One of the reasons i backed Hurricane Fly last season for the CH is that i didn’t envisage any races where he would get beat, and for me it’s likewise for Peddelers Cross. I think he will be ‘well looked after’, and given that he has good Cheltenham form in the Neptune and a very good effort in last seasons champion hurdle, i’m keen to make him my best bet for the festival. The phone bill can wait.
If i saw someone who refers to themselves in third person being crushed by a bus, i’d stand on top of the bus to give it extra support. Then i’d fly off.
I backed Aiteen Thirtythree for 20 quid at 13/2. I would have taken it at a bigger price for more money, but right now it is what it is. I think this horses education at Kempton was good, in that they wanted him to jump, let Somersby take the lead eventually, pretend they’re giving the horse a harder time than what the jockey was giving him, and have him chase Somersby home, whilst not getting too close. They done well to get him in this race off 152. I think he can run a nice race, but in the Hennessey there’s always going to be dangers who are well in. I’m quietly confident. I suppose Wymott and The Giant Bolster could be quite dangerous off their ratings.
Good luck with yer punts today Gordon. I think Rupert will run a big race(regardless of Webbers comments). Although i’m not having a bet, it’s good to see the jumps back. I think i’m developing a preference for them. Infact i do prefer jumps. Seeing the colours of these horses back is good, knowing they can return for numerous seasons. There’s the bold Lough Derg having his 60th run today. I don’t think you’ll be posting red figures after the Cheltenham festival, but you do kinda need one to hit the back of the net soon.
I think you’re forgetting that SNA can’t get drugs over here !…infact the fact he was on Lasix takes away from the performance imo. There are plenty of Americans who want that stuff done away with. Infact i wouldn’t be suprised if they retire SNA on the back of a drug enhanced performance. For me the best performance of the meeting was Calebs posse in the dirt mile.
Breeding talk/advert. They know fine well he’s not a miler. The ‘ we’re still getting to know him’ line is an excuse for his defeats. He has been beaten fair and square by Rewilding, Danedream, Cirrus Des Aigles and Drosselmeyer. He won’t be beating any top milers next season. That’s just my take on it.